Tehran has an iron grip over its map. It utilizes every means available to ward off any rivals seeking to encroach on this map, and it takes firm actions against those who try to create gaps within them or cut them up. Tehran’s maps hit a wall built by Istanbul five years ago, with the latter setting terms after winning the Battle of Chaldiran in 1514, and these terms were then fortified by the Allies of the First World War. However, a century of waiting later, Iran set out to expand geopolitically, building its reach on the rubble that had become a large segment of what used to be the Ottoman Empire. The United States’ misguided approach to managing Iraq after Saddam Hussein’s regime fell in April 2003 granted Iran the opportunity to connect the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean by land through Iraq, with the route passing through Damascus and then Beirut.
The Iranian regime’s problem, or its current conundrum, is that after around two decades of expansion wrapped in geo-doctrinal cloth, which allowed it to seep into the fabric of the societies whose regimes it controls, and after its strength made it arrogant, the regime’s preoccupation with maps became excessive. It paid no mind to those living in the territories of those maps, leaving the management of their affairs to corrupt political classes that it either lures with rewards or terrorizes to get what it wants. As far as these local elites are concerned, the advantage of allying with Iran is that it safeguards their interests, even if that comes at the expense of the national interest. This approach has led to the accumulation of local misgivings towards the groups loyal to Iran, with Iran’s preoccupation with maps but not the residents weakening society and destroying states.
The Iranian regime did not consider how the Lebanese and Iraqi people would react, and when they began to push back against its influence in October of 2019 (both the Iraqis and the Lebanese revolted against it that month), the regime was dumbfounded by the revolts’ scale and objectives. Since then, the regime in Tehran has been struggling to deal with two problems. First, its backyard, especially in Iraq, is up in flames, and this has serious social and doctrinal ramifications on the regime that is already in crisis. The second, it can be called the “shakiness of the domestic front,” where Lebanon represents the most important factor. Indeed, Lebanon is on the frontline of defense of its maps.
The Iranian regime is thus embroiled in a difficult struggle in Iraq that is particularly complicated because it is being fought among the country’s Shiites. With the insurgency, which laid the foundations for a new national social contract that redefines the nation-state, a significant bloc within Iraq’s Shiite community began to develop a patriotic consciousness after being freed of Iranian delusions promoted by Tehran over the past 19 years and after years of conflict among Iraqi communities (Kurds against Arabs; Sunnis against Shiites). This is also what we saw in Beirut after much of the post-civil war generation overcame their divisions, especially the March 8 and March 14 dichotomy, carving out a national public sphere that crystallized after October 17.
These opposition movements created a shift within Iran’s maps, with the parties backed by Tehran going from competing amongst themselves over power and spoils under Iranian supervision to clamping down on a generation determined to topple failed and corrupt political classes that can never have their slates wiped clean in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria.
The Iranian regime ties its strength to its influence, Iran’s massive geopolitical presence and its doctrinal influence to the regime’s stability. Its role on the world stage is crucial to its domestic legitimacy, even at the heart of the regime’s doctrine and identity. Earlier this month, the country’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, during a meeting with the members of the Ahl al-Bayt World Assembly, called for “casting aside all the artificial l dividing lines in the Islamic world and focusing on the only real dividing line, that which separates the Islamic world from the global front of blasphemy and arrogance.”
In sum, the Iranian regime’s excessive preoccupation with maps was spurred by a desire to fortify the wall between the country and its enemies. However, in this battle - whether intentionally or not- it overlooked important issues within these maps, opening the floodgates of hell and leaving the territory on this map up in flames that cannot be put out.
