IAEA Has Four Options to Exert Pressure on Iran

 The logo of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is seen at their headquarters during a board of governors meeting in Vienna, Austria, June 7, 2021. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
The logo of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is seen at their headquarters during a board of governors meeting in Vienna, Austria, June 7, 2021. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
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IAEA Has Four Options to Exert Pressure on Iran

 The logo of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is seen at their headquarters during a board of governors meeting in Vienna, Austria, June 7, 2021. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
The logo of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is seen at their headquarters during a board of governors meeting in Vienna, Austria, June 7, 2021. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

European sources in Paris said that the fate of the negotiations to revive the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement would largely depend on the outcome of the meeting of the IAEA Council of Governors in Vienna this week.

The three undeclared Iranian nuclear sites, in which IAEA inspectors found traces of enriched uranium, remain the subject of debate, despite the fact that four years have passed since the issue was made public.

Since then, the IAEA reports have emphasized that Iran did not give satisfactory answers, nor did it disclose the necessary information that would enable the agency to close the matter.

While the IAEA accuses Tehran of not respecting its obligations under the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement pertaining to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Iran blames the international agency for “politicizing” the issue and for being “biased” to Israel.

Moreover, Tehran insists on closing the issue, and makes it a condition to accept a return to the nuclear agreement.

Three points are worth observing: First, reviving the 2015 agreement will not take place imminently. This was confirmed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who said on Monday, in a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid: “There is now actually no reason for Iran not to agree to these [European] proposals. But we have to note that this is not the case, and will not happen certainly in the near future.”

Second, the Israeli campaign continues at various levels, and has succeeded in convincing the US administration to delay returning to the 2015 agreement until after the legislative elections in Israel and the midterms in the United States.

Third, Tehran anticipated the agency’s meeting in Vienna by trying to defuse the escalation with Europe. In recent remarks, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said that Tehran was ready to cooperate with the IAEA.

There is no doubt that the IAEA governors, when making their decisions, will look at their consequences and the Iranian responses to them. According to the sources in Paris, four main options are available to agency officials:

First, the 35 governors can refrain from issuing any statement or taking any measure or action against Tehran, in order to give it an additional 3 month-opportunity to show the extent of the sincerity of its promises, and to avoid escalation or reactions that would increase the obstacles facing the IAEA inspectors.

The second option could be an exact repetition of their statement in June, in which they denounced Iran’s failure to cooperate with the agency.

However, the governors can go further with a third option, by pairing their statement with a deadline to Iran, as a warning of transferring the matter to the UN Security Council, in accordance with the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement.

Finally, the governors may seek to end Iran’s manipulation, by deciding, in the course of this week, to transfer the matter to the Council Security. This will allow the activation of the “snapback” mechanism that will enable the re-imposition of international sanctions on Iran, which were lifted at the beginning of 2016.

Iran’s responses to each of the four options can range from denouncing the agency’s decision, depriving it of access to some sites, or closing additional surveillance cameras, up to partially or completely severing relations with the IAEA.

Iran can also respond by increasing its enrichment rates, “even to 90 percent”, deploying more advanced centrifuges and raising the amounts of enriched uranium.



Report: Israel Hit Syrian Bases Scoped by Türkiye, Hinting at Regional Showdown

 Debris is scattered at the site of an Israeli strike on a military airbase near Hama, Syria, Thursday, April 3, 2025. (AP)
Debris is scattered at the site of an Israeli strike on a military airbase near Hama, Syria, Thursday, April 3, 2025. (AP)
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Report: Israel Hit Syrian Bases Scoped by Türkiye, Hinting at Regional Showdown

 Debris is scattered at the site of an Israeli strike on a military airbase near Hama, Syria, Thursday, April 3, 2025. (AP)
Debris is scattered at the site of an Israeli strike on a military airbase near Hama, Syria, Thursday, April 3, 2025. (AP)

Türkiye scoped out at least three air bases in Syria where it could deploy forces as part of a planned joint defense pact before Israel hit the sites with air strikes this week, four people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The bombardment signals the risks of a deepening rift between two powerful regional militaries over Syria, where opposition factions have installed a new government after toppling former leader Bashar al-Assad in December.

The Israeli strikes on the three sites Türkiye was assessing, including a heavy barrage on Wednesday night, came despite Ankara's efforts to reassure Washington that a deeper military presence in Syria was not intended to threaten Israel.

The factions replacing Assad have alarmed Israel, which is wary of their presence on its border and has lobbied the United States to curb Türkiye’s growing influence in the country.

Ankara, a longtime backer of opposition to Assad, is positioning to play a major role in the remade Syria, including with a possible joint defense pact that could see new Turkish bases in central Syria and use of Syria's airspace.

In preparation, Turkish military teams in recent weeks visited the T4 and Palmyra air bases in Syria's Homs province and the main airport in Hama province, according to a regional intelligence official, two Syrian military sources and another Syrian source familiar with the matter.

The sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the visits, which have not been previously reported.

Turkish teams evaluated the state of the runways, hangars and other infrastructure at the bases, the regional intelligence official said.

Another planned visit to T4 and Palmyra on March 25 was cancelled after Israel struck both bases just hours beforehand, according to the regional intelligence official and the two Syrian military sources.

Strikes at T4 "destroyed the runway, tower, hangars and the planes that were grounded. It was a tough message that Israel won't accept the expanded Turkish presence," said the intelligence official, who reviewed photographs of the damage.

"T4 is totally unusable now," said a fourth Syrian source, who is close to Türkiye.

When asked about the visits, a Turkish defense ministry official said: "Reports and posts regarding developments in Syria - whether real or alleged - that do not originate from official authorities should not be taken into consideration, as they lack credibility and may be misleading."

A spokesperson for Syria's defense ministry declined to comment.

Türkiye’s foreign ministry on Thursday called Israel "the greatest threat to regional security". On Friday, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Reuters Türkiye wanted no confrontation with Israel in Syria.

HEAVY STRIKES

In the four months since Assad was toppled, Israel has seized ground in southwest Syria, made overtures to the Druze minority, and struck much of the Syrian military's heavy weapons and equipment. Wednesday's strikes were some of the most intense yet.

Syria's foreign ministry said Israel struck five separate areas within a 30-minute window, resulting in the near-total destruction of the Hama base and wounding dozens of civilians and soldiers.

Israel said it hit the T4 air base and other military capabilities at air bases in Hama and Homs provinces, as well as military infrastructure in the Damascus area.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz called the air strikes a warning that "we will not allow the security of the State of Israel to be harmed". Foreign Minister Gideon Saar accused Ankara of seeking a "Turkish protectorate" in Syria.

Noa Lazimi, a specialist in Middle East politics at Bar-Ilan University, said Israel was concerned that Türkiye could establish Russian anti-aircraft systems and drones at T4.

"The base would enable Türkiye to establish air superiority in this area, and this poses a serious concern for Israel because it undermines its operational freedom in the region," she said.

'IDEOLOGICAL COLLISION COURSE'

Türkiye has tried to reassure the US that it wants to work towards a stable Syria.

Foreign Minister Fidan told US officials in Washington last month that Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa would not pose a threat to neighbors, according to a senior regional diplomat close to Türkiye and a source in Washington briefed on the meetings.

Fidan and other Turkish officials had earlier told Sharaa that Ankara was carefully calibrating its moves towards a defense pact so as not to irk Washington, one of the Syrian military sources said.

" Türkiye, not Israel, would pay the highest price among regional states were there to be failure or destabilization in Syria, including with refugees and security," an official in Türkiye’s ruling AK Party told Reuters.

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute think tank, said Türkiye and Israel were on an "ideological collision course" but could avoid military escalation through mediation with Washington.