As the third month of protests in Iran begins, the regime is now confronting a revolt organized independently with the dynamics needed to endure, which leaves all the branches of the regime in a tight spot- the conservatives of both the doctrinal and military wings, and the reformists, both those who are part of the country’s power structure and the grassroots who are in touch with the movement on the streets.
The former, the conservatives, are directly concerned with re-imposing order. For this reason, it has stuck to its traditional rhetoric, which it reiterates whenever it confronts a popular movement or political crisis, resorting to the same tried and tested tactics.
The latter, the reformists, oppose the violence used by the regime and the country’s governing model; they are unsure about the extent to which they can endorse the protests, which have directed their ire at some of its elements. The reformists’ double standards have pushed some of its wings to crystalize a new narrative that creates a rupture with the conservatives from which there almost never is a way back. However, it has not put a totally different alternative forward.
The latest round of confrontation demonstrates the quandary the regime finds itself in better than any other. It finds itself defending its doctrine for the first time. For this reason, its military and civilian elites have escalated their rhetoric against the protesters through the military establishment. The most recent example is a statement released by the commander of the Iranian army’s ground forces that “rioters have no place in the Islamic Republic.” Meanwhile, last Sunday, 227 hardline deputies in the Iranian parliament asked the judiciary to “deal with the protesters decisively.”
Apprehension within the base of the regime has gone so far that some are making predictions about what Iran would look like if the movement achieves its objectives, warning political, religious, and cultural elites of the threats these developments pose to Iran’s social structure.
Last Wednesday, the hardline newspaper Kayhan’s front page warned: If the Islamic Republic falls and this group comes to power, Iran will become hell. Under the slogan of making the veil voluntary, it will eventually pursue “forced unveiling...” Indeed, they are fueling strife to divide Iran and break our country. Homosexuality will be legitimized in Iran, and it will spread across the country.
On the other hand, as the protest movement crystallizes into a social revolt, the reformists are showing more flexibility. The most notable stance was voiced by Mrs. Zahra Rahnavard, who is under house arrest with her husband, the leader of the Green Movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi. In a sharply worded statement directed at the regime’s leadership, she said: “Respect the youth, do not kill the people. Listen to them; protesting is a right. Release the student prisoners, stop making threats, suspending universities and schools, and expelling students.”
Meanwhile, the primary reformist bloc, which is associated with former President Mohammad Khatami, called for holding a referendum in order to end the protests.
The protest regime has exposed the rulers of Iran (conservative and reformist). It has shown that they are undergoing a critical stage after divergences and conflicts within the regime have left the Islamic Republic on the brink of chaos. After maintaining its stability for over four decades, the regime finds itself faced with social unrest in the aftermath of Mahsa Amini’s death under torture. An ideological rebellion has pushed up to the surface all the national sensibilities and regional prejudices that had been beneath the surface.
The speed at which the protests are expanding is greater than the speed at which the regime can contain or resolve their root causes. For this reason, it has begun losing some of its balance and is leaning toward imposing itself by threatening more violence. It insists on taking a negative approach to the protesters’ demands, behaving as though it were in denial and unable to understand that this approach to limited demands could lead to catastrophic consequences. The current chaos is a glimpse into them.
