Clashes Escalate in Northern Syria amid Ankara-Damascus 'Normalization' Talks

Syrian fighters in a Turkish-backed faction in the northern countryside of Aleppo (AFP)
Syrian fighters in a Turkish-backed faction in the northern countryside of Aleppo (AFP)
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Clashes Escalate in Northern Syria amid Ankara-Damascus 'Normalization' Talks

Syrian fighters in a Turkish-backed faction in the northern countryside of Aleppo (AFP)
Syrian fighters in a Turkish-backed faction in the northern countryside of Aleppo (AFP)

Clashes escalated between the Turkish forces and the regime forces in northern Syria, amid preparations for the foreign ministers meeting of Türkiye, Syria, and Russia, within the framework of the second phase of normalizing relations between Ankara and Damascus.

A Turkish soldier was killed, and others were injured, after the Turkish base in Hazwan village in al-Bab, east of Aleppo, was attacked from the areas of the Syrian regime forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northern countryside of Aleppo.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a Turkish helicopter arrived at the base to transport the wounded to Türkiye.

The Turkish Ministry of Defense announced Saturday that one of its soldiers died from injuries sustained during Friday's attack without giving any further information.

Turkish forces and their loyal factions, known as the Syrian National Army (SNA), responded by shelling heavy artillery areas of the SDF and the regime forces.

The Turkish Ministry of Defense said in a statement on Saturday that 11 SDF members had been "neutralized" after they launched attacks on the areas of the Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch operations.

The axes of contact between the Turkish forces and the loyal National Army factions, the regime forces, and the SDF in northern Syria witness continuous clashes, exchanges of shelling, and infiltration operations, without any change in the control map in the region.

- Escalation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

Mutual attacks escalated between Türkiye and Syria amid reports about rapprochement with the regime and preparations for the meeting of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Bashar al-Assad under the auspices of Russia.

Türkiye has killed 32 Syrian soldiers, including senior officers, since Ankara escalated its attack against SDF areas last November as part of the military operation "Claw-Sword."

The operation was launched after a terrorist bombing on Istiklal Street in Taksim, which Turkish authorities attributed to perpetrators following the orders of commanders of Kurdish units in Ain al-Arab.

At the same time, four members of the regime forces were killed, and two others were wounded in violent clashes with heavy weapons and machine guns during an attack launched by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), on Saturday, in the northern countryside of Latakia.

The Syrian Observatory reported that the HTS seeks to exploit widespread anger and discontent with the rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus by intensifying its attacks against regime forces on several axes in the de-escalation zones in northwestern Syria.

It noted that members of the HTS-affiliate Othman bin Affan Brigade carried out an attack targeting regime forces on the Nahshaba axis, where violent clashes took place between the two sides with heavy weapons and machine guns, amid reports about deaths and injuries.

Recently, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham intensified its operations against the regime forces on several axes in the de-escalation zones, causing many casualties.

- A military operation

Turkish presidency spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin, announced Saturday that a ground military operation in Syria "is possible at any time."

"We continue to support the political process," Kalin told reporters from foreign media outlets, including AFP.

"A ground operation is possible any time, depending on the threats we receive."

Referring to the normalization of relations between Ankara and Damascus, Kalin said the initial meeting between the neighbors' defense ministers at the end of December could be extended, with foreign ministers possibly meeting in February.

He added, "We want security on our borders," referring to the presence of Kurdish forces on Syrian territory, asserting that Türkiye "never targets the Syrian state or Syrian civilians."

However, he pointed out that the security guarantees promised by Russia and the US after the last Turkish operation in Syria in 2019 were not met, and the Kurdish fighters did not withdraw 30 kilometers from the border as promised.

- Pressure on refugees

The Turkish opposition continues its campaign against the Syrian refugees, promising to deport them ahead of the Turkish elections scheduled for next June, which may be brought forward to May.

Former presidential candidate and a potential candidate for the upcoming presidential elections, the head of the opposition Homeland party, Muharrem Ince, vowed to deport Syrian refugees.

During a meeting with supporters, Ince said Erdogan's government granted thousands of Syrian refugees the Turkish citizenship, and they can now vote in the elections, noting that their votes would favor the ruling Justice and Development Party.

He warned that Syrian refugees had overstayed their welcome.

Ince pointed out that the opposition parties would take several steps when they win the elections, including closing the border and arresting Syrian refugees in the streets.

The Republican People's Party (CHP) pledged to send the Syrians to their homeland and see them off with "drums and zurnas" within two years of winning the next elections.

Recently, the party used billboards and banners in several Turkish cities to assert its rejection of the refugees, promising to withdraw from the migration agreement signed with the European Union in 2016.

Meanwhile, Erdogan announced a plan to send back home more than a million Syrian refugees, and announced last week that more than half a million Syrians had been deported to their homeland thanks to the Turkish military operations that cleared large areas in northern Syria.

About 3,733,982 Syrians received the Turkish Temporary Protection Identification Documents, with about 550,000 refugees in Istanbul alone.

Most Syrians in Türkiye suffer from difficult living conditions in light of the high prices, low wages, and the campaigns against them.

The Turkish Migration Directorate announced that 124,441 illegal immigrants were deported last year, including 58,758 Syrians who returned voluntarily to Türkiye's "safe areas" in northern Syria.

The Turkish Ministry of Defense reported that the ongoing meetings and discussions between Türkiye and the Syrian regime focus on several issues, including combating terrorism, the voluntary and safe return of Syrian refugees, and achieving stability through the political solution.



Hezbollah, Israel Trade Evacuation Warnings as Ground Campaign Remains Unclear

A Lebanese man walks near the rubble of buildings destroyed by Israeli air strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs (Reuters)
A Lebanese man walks near the rubble of buildings destroyed by Israeli air strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs (Reuters)
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Hezbollah, Israel Trade Evacuation Warnings as Ground Campaign Remains Unclear

A Lebanese man walks near the rubble of buildings destroyed by Israeli air strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs (Reuters)
A Lebanese man walks near the rubble of buildings destroyed by Israeli air strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs (Reuters)

Hezbollah and the Israeli military have entered a new phase of the conflict in southern Lebanon, marked by a sharp escalation in missile fire that began late Wednesday.

Israel responded by widening evacuation warnings in southern Lebanon to areas north of the Litani River and south of the Zahrani River, as Israeli ground operations over the past 10 days have consisted of limited incursions followed by withdrawals.

Israel also issued evacuation warnings in central Beirut, specifically in the Bashoura area adjacent to downtown Beirut, triggering major disruption in the capital.

The area is hosting tens of thousands of displaced people from southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs. The Israeli military enforced the warning by striking a building with two heavy air raids following two warning strikes.

Later, the Israeli military said Hezbollah had stored hundreds of millions of dollars beneath the targeted building and that armed guards were stationed there. It said access to the storage site was through the parking lot.

The military then issued another warning for a building dozens of meters away in the Zoqaq al-Blat area and struck it in an air raid.

The escalation reached a new level when a precision strike targeted the Lebanese University’s Faculty of Sciences, killing two professors inside the building.

In Israel, Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a statement that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had instructed the Israeli military to “prepare to expand operations in Lebanon and restore calm and security to the northern communities.”

Katz said he warned Lebanon’s president, Joseph Aoun, that if the Lebanese government cannot control its territory and prevent Hezbollah from threatening the northern communities and firing rockets toward Israel, it will do so itself, and it will seize territory.

Hezbollah escalation

Hezbollah launched a heavy rocket barrage late Wednesday, with most of the projectiles fired from north of the Litani River toward Israel. The rockets targeted northern border settlements as well as military sites deeper inside Israel, according to Israeli media and Hezbollah.

More than 200 rockets were fired in successive barrages over nearly four hours, causing no deaths or injuries, according to Israeli authorities.

Hezbollah appeared to escalate after days of heavy Israeli bombardment targeting Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Lebanese sources monitoring Hezbollah said the decision to escalate “appears to have been taken after Israel announced it would not evacuate the northern settlements, so that displaced residents would not create pressure on it.”

The sources said Hezbollah was therefore trying to pressure Tel Aviv by forcing evacuations in northern Israel.

Northern Israel was expected to remain largely insulated from the fighting after Hezbollah vacated the area south of the Litani following the 2024 war, and after the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers cleared and destroyed Hezbollah rocket depots south of the river.

However, most of the rockets targeting northern Israel were launched from north of the Litani.

A Lebanese security source said 95% of the rockets fired at Israel during the latest escalation overnight Wednesday originated north of the Litani.

The Israeli military said Thursday that Hezbollah had launched “around 200 rockets and around 20 drones, in addition to ballistic missiles that were being launched from Iran at the same time,” describing it as the largest barrage Hezbollah has fired since the start of the war.

It vowed to respond forcefully, while Hezbollah rockets struck areas in Tel Aviv and Israeli military facilities in Haifa, Tiberias and Safed.

Evacuation warnings

Israel quickly responded Thursday by issuing what it described as the broadest evacuation warning since the war began, covering the area between north of the Litani River and south of the Zahrani River, extending to western Bekaa.

Avichay Adraee, the Israeli military’s Arabic-language spokesperson, said on X that residents should move north of the Zahrani River, which lies about 56 kilometers from the Israeli border at its midpoint.

The warning covers the Zahrani district and part of Nabatieh district, particularly the Iqlim al-Tuffah area, which is entirely included in the evacuation order, as well as villages in western Bekaa.

Local sources in southern Lebanon told Asharq Al-Awsat that the area north of the Litani came under very heavy air strikes overnight Wednesday-Thursday, with bombardment lasting for hours in villages where Hezbollah was launching rockets.

Ground battle

The shape of the ground battle remains unclear, with Israeli forces carrying out incursions inside Lebanese territory without establishing permanent positions.

A Lebanese security source told Asharq Al-Awsat that Israeli incursions have been taking place for 10 days, ranging from a few hundred meters to 3 kilometers inside Lebanon.

The source said the Israeli military “has not established any new military position inside Lebanese territory,” but instead enters areas and then withdraws.

According to the sources, incursions have occurred on several axes. In the east, they included the area south of Kfar Shouba, as well as the villages of Adaisseh, Markaba, Kfar Kila and south of Khiam, extending to the outskirts of Tall al-Nahas.

Other incursions took place farther south in Aitaroun, Yaroun, Maroun al-Ras and Qawzah.

The sources stressed that what is happening “is not an invasion, but incursions after which Israeli forces withdraw beyond the border.”

At the same time, Hezbollah said its fighters carried out large-scale missile and drone attacks targeting strategic military bases in the suburbs of Tel Aviv and elite training centers, as well as “pounding Zionist settlements and barracks with swarms of attack drones and precision rocket salvos.”

The death toll from Israeli strikes on Lebanon has risen to 687 since the war between Israel and Hezbollah began on March 2, 2026, Lebanese Information Minister Paul Morcos said. He added that the dead include “98 children and 52 women.”


Iran, Hezbollah ‘Parallel Missile War’: Tactic to Confuse Israel or War of Attrition?

A damaged building in Beirut’s southern suburbs after an Israeli strike on the area, with a large portrait of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei displayed on it (Reuters)
A damaged building in Beirut’s southern suburbs after an Israeli strike on the area, with a large portrait of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei displayed on it (Reuters)
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Iran, Hezbollah ‘Parallel Missile War’: Tactic to Confuse Israel or War of Attrition?

A damaged building in Beirut’s southern suburbs after an Israeli strike on the area, with a large portrait of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei displayed on it (Reuters)
A damaged building in Beirut’s southern suburbs after an Israeli strike on the area, with a large portrait of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei displayed on it (Reuters)

The war in the region is showing a striking military shift, with Iran and Hezbollah launching missiles simultaneously toward Israel, signaling a move from sporadic attacks to coordinated fire across two fronts.

The step reflects an effort to impose new military equations and generate simultaneous pressure across multiple arenas.

Experts say the confrontation is effectively being run as a single front led by Tehran, with the Lebanese front appearing as a direct extension of the battle Iran is fighting.

Hezbollah underscored that when it said its missile attacks were in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, while Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement Wednesday evening that it had joined Hezbollah in what was called “Operation Al-Asf Al-Makoul.”

Lebanese government summons Iranian embassy official

The Iranian statement triggered a response in Lebanon. The cabinet decided to summon the Iranian embassy’s charge d’affaires, linking the move to a recent decision banning any activity by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon.

Information Minister Paul Morcos said that after the Revolutionary Guards’ statement referring to a joint operation with Hezbollah, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam asked Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji to “summon the appropriate official from the Iranian embassy.”

Rajji subsequently summoned the Iranian charge d’affaires and tasked the secretary-general of the Foreign Ministry with meeting him on Friday morning to convey Lebanon’s position rejecting any Iranian interference in the country’s internal affairs.

One front managed between Tehran and Beirut

Since the start of the US-Iran war, near-daily barrages have been launched from Iranian territory toward Israel’s interior, alongside dozens of rockets fired from southern Lebanon toward northern Israel.

The synchronized attacks deliver both a political and military message. Air raid sirens have sounded across wide areas from northern to central Israel during the barrages.

The latest operation was what Hezbollah called “Operation Al-Asf Al-Makoul,” which the Revolutionary Guards also said it had joined alongside the group.

Israeli military spokesperson Nadav Shoshani said Thursday that Hezbollah, in coordination with Iran, launched an overnight attack involving missiles and drones targeting cities and communities across Israel.

About 200 rockets and 20 drones were fired, he said, in addition to ballistic missiles launched from Iran at the same time.

Shoshani described it as the largest barrage Hezbollah has fired since the start of the war, but said Israeli air defenses and a rapid response limited the damage.

A security source told Asharq Al-Awsat the parallel strikes leave “no room for doubt that the military order comes from the same source,” adding that Iran views the war as “one front, not two,” managed from Tehran and Beirut alike.

The source said that view is also reflected in Israeli assassinations targeting Revolutionary Guard commanders, adding that those carrying out operations tied to that source “must execute the orders.”

Tactic aimed at Israeli air defenses

Retired Brigadier General Yaroob Sakher said the parallel launches reflect a tactic aimed primarily at confusing Israel’s air defense systems.

He said barrages fired by Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, given the group’s geographic proximity to Israel, serve to occupy defense systems and disperse their ability to respond to threats, opening a time window for long-range Iranian missiles attempting to penetrate those defenses.

Hezbollah as an ‘attrition front’

Sakher said the approach relies on synchronized barrages: closer-range rockets serve as a defensive distraction, while missiles launched farther away aim to exploit the resulting confusion.

But he said the tactic’s results remain limited, succeeding at times but failing often because of the density and sophistication of Israeli air defenses.

Sakher places the approach within what he describes as a broader Iranian strategy. In his view, Tehran sees the war as a major confrontation that could threaten its future and is therefore deploying all available tools.

That includes expanding regional tension while activating its regional allies, foremost Hezbollah, which forms the front closest to Israel.

However, he said Hezbollah no longer possesses all its previous capabilities after the blows it has sustained, leaving its role closer to a front of attrition or distraction than a decisive battlefield.

Israel strikes across multiple fronts

Sakher said Israel, in turn, is pursuing a parallel strategy by spreading its strikes across multiple fronts.

As Iran operates simultaneously from Tehran and Beirut, Israel is balancing its attacks between Iran and Hezbollah, backed by significant military and logistical capabilities, along with a US military presence in the region and the continued arrival of cargo aircraft carrying weapons to Israel.

He said the ongoing strikes have begun to affect Iran’s missile capabilities by targeting production sites and storage facilities above and below ground, gradually reducing its ballistic missile stockpile.

Hezbollah’s missile arsenal, he added, is also being depleted under sustained Israeli strikes.

In Sakher’s assessment, the balance of power clearly favors the United States and Israel because of the wide gap in military technology.

Iran, he said, relies on less advanced capabilities than those of the opposing side, including technologies based on artificial intelligence.

“In the short term, the battle does not appear to be moving in Tehran’s favor,” Sakher said, pointing to the continuing strikes on Iran’s missile capabilities.

He added that this could accelerate the confrontation's resolution, unless new political or military developments emerge.


Strike Kills 2 Academics at Lebanese University as Israel Bombs Central Beirut

People stand amid debris in front of damaged buildings in the aftermath of a reported Israeli strike in Zuqaq al-Blat, central Beirut, Lebanon March 12, 2026. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
People stand amid debris in front of damaged buildings in the aftermath of a reported Israeli strike in Zuqaq al-Blat, central Beirut, Lebanon March 12, 2026. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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Strike Kills 2 Academics at Lebanese University as Israel Bombs Central Beirut

People stand amid debris in front of damaged buildings in the aftermath of a reported Israeli strike in Zuqaq al-Blat, central Beirut, Lebanon March 12, 2026. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
People stand amid debris in front of damaged buildings in the aftermath of a reported Israeli strike in Zuqaq al-Blat, central Beirut, Lebanon March 12, 2026. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

An Israeli strike that hit in the vicinity of Lebanon’s only public university killed the director of the faculty of sciences Hussein Bazzi and professor Mortada Srour.

The campus is in Hadath, on the outskirts of Beirut’s southern suburbs, which Israel had warned last week should be evacuated.

It was not clear whether the campus was directly targeted, but smoke could be seen rising near the building’s courtyard in the aftermath.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned the bombing, which he said targeted the campus, as a crime and a “violation of international laws and norms that prohibit attacks on educational institutions and civilians.”

Israel’s military said Thursday night it had begun another wave of strikes on Lebanon’s capital, saying it was targeting Hezbollah sites.

Israeli strikes hit two buildings in busy residential and commercial districts near central Beirut.