US, Qatar, Egypt Supply Europe’s LNG Demand

The natural gas liquefaction complex in Damietta, which exports the largest amount of Egyptian gas exports (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The natural gas liquefaction complex in Damietta, which exports the largest amount of Egyptian gas exports (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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US, Qatar, Egypt Supply Europe’s LNG Demand

The natural gas liquefaction complex in Damietta, which exports the largest amount of Egyptian gas exports (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The natural gas liquefaction complex in Damietta, which exports the largest amount of Egyptian gas exports (Asharq Al-Awsat)

European imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose by 63 % in 2022, to compensate for the interruption of supplies through Russian gas pipelines.

LNG imported by Europe increased by 66 bcm, according to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

While the US supplied approximately two-thirds (43 bcm) of the incremental LNG inflows into Europe, other “swing suppliers” were also able to redirect significant flexible volumes to the European market, with Qatar (5 bcm), Egypt (5 bcm), Norway (3 bcm), Angola (2 bcm), Russia (2 bcm) and Trinidad and Tobago (2 bcm) providing the bulk of the remaining one-third.

The increase in European demand raised prices and doubled the value of the global LNG market in 2022 to an all-time high of USD 450 billion. Traded volumes, however, increased by 6%.

The agency expects the growth of the global market in 2023 to increase by an additional 4.3 %.

“Europe was the primary driver behind the increase in LNG demand as it pivoted away from the Russian pipeline. LNG cargoes delivered to Europe increased by 63% last year,” said the IEA.

At one point in Q4, infrastructure bottlenecks combined with mild winter temperatures and full storage sites (reflected in wide price differentials) prompted more than “30 laden LNG tankers to wait for available regasification slots in Europe rather than sell their cargoes elsewhere at a discount,” according to the report.

Moreover, the war in Ukraine increased the need for LNG terminals and tankers.

LNG carrier orders reached an all-time high of 165 in 2022, according to data from Refinitiv, which represents a staggering 130% increase in 2021. This has boosted the presence of Chinese players in the LNG shipbuilding market.

Natural gas markets worldwide continued to tighten last year despite global consumption declining by an estimated 1.6% in 2022.

Meanwhile, EU energy ministers met on Tuesday to discuss issues ranging from security of supply to the upcoming electricity market reform. They touched on the renewal of the mechanism for reducing gas consumption during the coming winter.

French Energy Minister Agnes Pannier-Runache revealed that the 27 ministers discussed “extending several emergency measures” so gas stocks could be swiftly replenished and enable the countries to face potential tensions, including putting consumption under control.

In the face of the energy crisis that resulted from the war in Ukraine and the decline in Russian supplies, EU countries agreed last July to reduce their demand for gas during the period between August 2022 and March 2023 by 15 %.



Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The current oil supply crisis shows there is underinvestment in oil refining as demand holds resilient, Saudi state-owned Aramco's vice president of market analysis and sustainability, Musaab Al Mulla, said on Tuesday.

Around 3 ⁠million barrels per ⁠day of refining capacity closed between 2020 and 2023, Al Mulla said at the S&P Global Energy Middle East ⁠Petroleum and Gas Conference in London.

"Now we realize if you have those refineries you may have definitely mitigated the impacts of the crisis today," he said.

The war in Iran, attacks on energy infrastructure and ⁠Iran's effective ⁠closure of the Strait of Hormuz followed by a US naval blockade, have removed around 14 million bpd of oil supply from Middle East producers to the global market.


OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
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OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)

The war in the Middle East has dented economic growth prospects worldwide, with a more severe shock likely if no effective ceasefire is agreed before 2027, the OECD warned Wednesday.

Global economic growth is now forecast to slip to 2.8 percent for 2026 if Gulf exports of oil and gas return to pre-conflict levels in the third quarter, the group of 38 industrialized countries said in its quarterly update.

Previously the OECD had forecast full-year global growth of 2.9 percent.

But if the Middle East war continues into next year, however, global growth could slow to 2.1 percent, the OECD said -- well below the average annual growth of 3.4 percent seen from 2013 to 2019, before the Covid pandemic.

"The longer the disruptions last, the larger the economic and social costs become," the group's chief economist Stefano Scarpetta said in the report.

Many countries would risk falling into recession, he noted, and a drop in investment spending -- "including in energy-intensive AI" -- would likely push up unemployment.

Sustained high prices for energy as well as fertilizer and other key products from hydrocarbon production in the Gulf would weigh especially hard on developing countries that have "higher shares of energy and food in household consumption".

Even if the war sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February ends in the coming weeks, the OECD forecast global inflation rising to 4.0 percent this year from 3.4 percent in 2025.

In this "time-limited disruption scenario", the group expects US growth to slow to 2.0 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2027, after growing 2.1 percent last year.

In the eurozone, where many countries are highly dependent on energy imports, GDP growth will slump to 0.8 percent this year after 1.4 percent last year, assuming a Mideast ceasefire is secured in the coming weeks.


Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
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Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector expanded at the fastest pace in three months in May as domestic demand improved and supply chains stabilized, while business optimism remained subdued amid conflict in the region, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 52.8 in May from 51.5 in April. The 50 mark separates growth from contraction, Reuters reported.

Output accelerated at the ⁠fastest pace in ⁠three months after March's downturn following the start of the Iran war, as firms cited normalizing working conditions, revived contracts and stronger local demand.

Export sales fell for a third straight month, hit by shipping disruption, higher freight and fuel costs, geopolitical tensions and stronger competition. The pace of decline eased only modestly from April's survey-record contraction.

However, supply chains improved, with suppliers' delivery times shortening for the first time in three months as ⁠firms relied ⁠more on local vendors. Backlogs of work rose for an 11th consecutive month, albeit moderately.

“Overall, the latest PMI reading supports the expectation that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy will continue its upward trend during the remainder of 2026," said Naif Al-Ghaith, Riyad Bank's chief economist.