EU Leaders Grapple with Bank Risks as Economy Weakens

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, left, speaks with Slovakia's Prime Minister Eduard Heger, center, and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides during a round table meeting at an EU summit in Brussels, Friday, March 24, 2023. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, left, speaks with Slovakia's Prime Minister Eduard Heger, center, and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides during a round table meeting at an EU summit in Brussels, Friday, March 24, 2023. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)
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EU Leaders Grapple with Bank Risks as Economy Weakens

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, left, speaks with Slovakia's Prime Minister Eduard Heger, center, and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides during a round table meeting at an EU summit in Brussels, Friday, March 24, 2023. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, left, speaks with Slovakia's Prime Minister Eduard Heger, center, and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides during a round table meeting at an EU summit in Brussels, Friday, March 24, 2023. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)

European Union leaders gathered Friday to gauge the risk of a banking crisis developing from recent global financial turbulence and hitting the economy even harder than the energy crunch tied to Russia's war in Ukraine.

The deliberations by EU government heads in Brussels follow US regulators shutting down two US banks, including Silicon Valley Bank, and a Swiss-orchestrated takeover of troubled lender Credit Suisse by rival UBS, The Associated Press said.

The emergency actions on both sides of the Atlantic revived memories of the 2008 global financial meltdown and the ensuing EU sovereign debt crisis, which almost broke apart the euro currency now shared by 20 European countries.

“For the moment, we see no reason to be worried,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told reporters on his way to the EU meeting. “But we monitor it really closely, almost on a daily basis, because no one knows what can happen.”

The European economy has been slowing rapidly since Russia invaded Ukraine 13 months ago to the day, leaving the EU flirting with recession. The war has fueled inflation by prompting cuts in supplies of previously abundant Russian oil, natural gas and coal and by denting consumer and business confidence.

The European Commission, the EU's executive arm, expects economic growth in the 27-nation bloc to slow to 0.8% this year from 3.5% in 2022 and 5.4% in 2021. A projected rebound in growth to 1.6% next year depends on a sound banking sector able to lend to businesses and consumers and protect deposits.

The EU has beefed up its regulation of financial institutions since the euro debt crisis, and little sign has emerged so far of broader contagion in Europe from Credit Suisse’s dramatic rescue.

Nonetheless, financial supervision in Europe remains a patchwork of EU and national authorities pursuing common approaches rather than heeding an actual single European rulebook.

For example, the euro area still lacks a common deposit insurance system, which is widely considered a key defense against future European bank crises. A stalemate among national capitals over how to share risk has left the bloc without this regulatory pillar.

On the market front, officials have said European banks generally have adequate cash buffers — while still urging vigilance.

“I am very confident in the amount of liquidity, the amount of resilience, that our banking system has built up,” said Paschal Donohoe, who leads the group of eurozone finance chiefs and is Ireland’s public expenditure minister. “But we can never be complacent.”

One reason for prudence is that the European Central Bank has raised interest rates from record lows, denting the balance sheets of lenders and making it more expensive for consumers and businesses to get loans. The ECB is seeking to bring stubbornly high euro-area inflation, which was 8.5% in February, closer to a 2% target.

ECB President Christine Lagarde and Donohoe are attending the EU summit to share their views about the economy.

“I’m really looking forward to the discussions with the president of the European Central Bank to understand where we are going and what tools they plan to use in the future — what are the prospects for our economy and inflation,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said.



Saudi Ministers Highlight Resilience, Adaptability of the Kingdom’s Economy at Budget Forum

Finance Minister Mohamed Al-Jadaan speaks in the first dialogue session of the 2025 Budget Forum. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Finance Minister Mohamed Al-Jadaan speaks in the first dialogue session of the 2025 Budget Forum. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Ministers Highlight Resilience, Adaptability of the Kingdom’s Economy at Budget Forum

Finance Minister Mohamed Al-Jadaan speaks in the first dialogue session of the 2025 Budget Forum. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Finance Minister Mohamed Al-Jadaan speaks in the first dialogue session of the 2025 Budget Forum. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi ministers reaffirmed the continued success of Vision 2030 and the economy’s ability to overcome challenges while achieving diversification.

Speaking at the 2025 Budget Forum, organized by the Ministry of Finance, they underscored the importance of fiscal policies in driving sustainable economic growth and emphasized the integration of various sectors to enhance Saudi Arabia’s global standing.

The forum followed the Cabinet’s approval of the 2025 budget, which projects revenues of SAR 1.184 trillion ($315.7 billion), expenditures of SAR 1.285 trillion ($342.6 billion), and a deficit of SAR 101 billion ($26.9 billion).

Sustainable Spending and Economic Diversification

Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan highlighted that sustainable spending has enabled Saudi Arabia to provide high-quality services. He emphasized that fiscal policies focus on sectors with a direct impact on economic development and diversification.

Al-Jadaan noted that ensuring fiscal sustainability is crucial to reducing reliance on oil revenues.

“Structural reforms under Vision 2030 have transformed the economy,” he said, adding that non-oil revenues have reached SAR 472 billion due to the significant progress in diversification efforts.

He further explained: “Previously, Saudi Arabia’s growth depended heavily on oil revenues. Today, through diversified economic resources and sustainable fiscal policies, our economy is more resilient.”

He also stressed the role of government borrowing in balancing revenues and expenditures, benefiting both public and private sectors.

Progress Toward Economic Diversification

Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim highlighted that one of Vision 2030’s key objectives is to unlock the potential of citizens while reducing reliance on oil. He noted that in its eighth year, the vision continues to advance steadily and with strong momentum, addressing previous challenges such as dependence on government spending and oil revenues.

“Non-oil activities have grown by 6% over the last three years,” Al-Ibrahim said, “now contributing 52% of real GDP.” He added that non-oil sector growth is projected to reach 3.9% by year-end and 4.8% in 2024.

Al-Ibrahim stressed the importance of sustainable, high-quality growth driven by private sector dynamism and productivity. He also highlighted Saudi Arabia’s increasing global competitiveness in sectors like healthcare, citing breakthroughs such as robotic heart surgeries.

Additionally, he noted the Kingdom’s demographic advantage, stating: “We have a young population, and now is the time to invest in their capabilities, as envisioned under Vision 2030.”

Employment and Reducing Unemployment

Minister of Human Resources and Social Development Ahmed Al-Rajhi announced a new unemployment target of 5% for Saudis by 2030. This follows the Kingdom’s early achievement of its previous unemployment target of 7%, reached seven years ahead of schedule.

Industrial Growth and Export Expansion

For his part, Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Al-Khorayef reported significant progress in the industrial sector, with 1,100 new industrial licenses expected in 2024 and 900 factories entering production.

Non-oil exports grew by 15% in 2024, rising from SAR 458 billion ($121.9 billion) to SAR 528 billion ($140.5 billion). Al-Khorayef highlighted that the Saudi Industrial Development Fund financed projects worth SAR 12 billion ($3.2 billion) this year, contributing to total investments exceeding SAR 60 billion ($16 billion).

“The industrial sector is now a central part of government agendas,” he said, adding that export growth was driven by new product development.

Digital Transformation and a Cashless Economy

Minister of Communications and Information Technology Abdullah Al-Swaha outlined Saudi Arabia’s strategy to become a technology exporter, which is a key part of its digital economy goals. He highlighted that over 70% of transactions in the Kingdom are now cashless, supported by the emergence of more than 200 fintech companies.

Al-Swaha emphasized that the next phase will focus on exporting technology and establishing Saudi Arabia as a global leader in the tech sector.

Transportation Growth

Minister of Transport and Logistics Services Saleh Al-Jasser reported that the sector created 122,000 jobs in Q3 2024, with women comprising 29% of the workforce.

He also noted that the transport sector aims to achieve 60% local content in its spending by 2030. The current figure stands at 50%, up from 39% in the baseline year.

Education, Tourism, and Sports

Minister of Education Yousef Al-Benyan highlighted the establishment of the National Center for Curriculum Development as a major achievement in 2023. He also noted that education spending in the 2025 budget exceeds SAR 200 billion.

Minister of Tourism Ahmed Al-Khatib reported that the tourism sector now contributes 5% to GDP, up from previous years, with a goal of reaching 10% by 2030. He added that Saudi Arabia surpassed its Vision 2030 target of 100 million visitors, reaching 109 million tourists in 2023.

In the sports sector, Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki Al-Faisal, Minister of Sports, revealed that 25 local and international companies have shown interest in investing in privatized sports clubs, with projected revenues of SAR 500 million ($133 million).