Iraq Halts Northern Crude Exports after Winning Arbitration Case against Türkiye

The Nihran Bin Omar oil field flare stacks burn north of Basra, Iraq, Wednesday, March 22, 2023. (AP)
The Nihran Bin Omar oil field flare stacks burn north of Basra, Iraq, Wednesday, March 22, 2023. (AP)
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Iraq Halts Northern Crude Exports after Winning Arbitration Case against Türkiye

The Nihran Bin Omar oil field flare stacks burn north of Basra, Iraq, Wednesday, March 22, 2023. (AP)
The Nihran Bin Omar oil field flare stacks burn north of Basra, Iraq, Wednesday, March 22, 2023. (AP)

Iraq halted crude exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region and northern Kirkuk fields on Saturday, an oil official told Reuters, after the country won a longstanding arbitration case against Türkiye.

The decision to stop shipments of 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude relates to a case from 2014, when Baghdad claimed that Türkiye violated a joint agreement by allowing the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to export oil through a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

Baghdad deems KRG exports via Turkish Ceyhan port as illegal.

The International Chamber of Commerce ruled in favor of Iraq on Thursday, Iraq's oil ministry confirmed on Saturday.

Türkiye has informed Iraq that it will respect the arbitration ruling, a source said.

Turkish shipping officials told Iraqi employees at Türkiye’s Ceyhan oil export hub that no ship will be allowed to load Kurdish crude without the approval of the Iraqi government, according to a document seen by Reuters.

Türkiye subsequently halted the pumping of Iraqi crude from the pipeline that leads to Ceyhan, a separate document seen by Reuters showed.

On Saturday, Iraq stopped pumping oil through its side of the pipeline which runs from its northern Kirkuk oil fields, one of the officials told Reuters.

Iraq had been pumping 370,000 bpd of KRG crude and 75,000 bpd of federal crude through the pipeline before it was halted, according to a source familiar with pipeline operations.

"A delegation from the oil ministry will travel to Türkiye soon to meet energy officials to agree on new mechanism to export Iraq's northern crude oil in line with the arbitration ruling," a second oil ministry official said.

Iraq will discuss with the relevant authorities ways to ensure the continuation of oil exports through the port of Ceyhan and state-owned SOMO's obligations with oil companies, Iraq's oil ministry said in a statement.

The ruling, in which Türkiye has been ordered to pay Iraq around $1.5 billion before interest, covers the 2014-2018 period, according to a source familiar with the case who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak with the media.

A second arbitration case, which the source expects to take around two years, will cover the period from 2018 onwards.

Turkish government officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Production risk

The final hearing on the arbitration case was held in Paris in July 2022, but it took months for the arbitrators, the secretariat of the arbitration court and the International Chamber of Commerce to approve the verdict, the source familiar with the process said.

The impact on the KRG's oil production depends heavily on the duration of the Iraqi Turkish Pipeline (ITP) closure, sources said, adding this would cause significant uncertainty to oil firms operating in the Kurdistan Region in Iraq (KRI).

A cessation of exports through the pipeline would trigger a collapse of the KRI economy, according to a letter last year to US representatives from Dallas-based HKN Energy, which operates in the region.

Türkiye would need to source more crude from Iran and Russia to make up for the loss of northern Iraqi oil, the letter said.

Analysts have warned that companies could withdraw from the region unless the environment improved.

Foreign oil firms, including HKN Energy and Gulf Keystone, have linked their investment plans this year to the reliability of KRG payments, which face months of delays.



Saudi Economy Grows 2.8% as Non-Oil Sector Drives Expansion

A container ship at a Saudi port (SPA)
A container ship at a Saudi port (SPA)
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Saudi Economy Grows 2.8% as Non-Oil Sector Drives Expansion

A container ship at a Saudi port (SPA)
A container ship at a Saudi port (SPA)

Saudi Arabia’s economy maintained positive growth despite regional tensions and oil market volatility, reflecting strong fundamentals and the continued impact of diversification efforts. Expansion in non-oil activities remained the key driver, supporting stability and strengthening the economy’s ability to adapt to global shifts.

The General Authority for Statistics said in flash estimates that real GDP grew 2.8% in the first quarter of 2026 from a year earlier, with non-oil sectors contributing about 60% of the increase.

All major sectors posted gains. Non-oil activities rose 2.8%, the oil sector grew about 2.3%, and government activities increased 1.5% year on year.

Growth momentum

Economists told Asharq Al-Awsat the first-quarter expansion highlights the Kingdom’s structural shift, with oil no longer the main engine of growth. Non-oil sectors now lead, accounting for roughly 60% of the expansion.

They said the figures show diversification policies are delivering tangible results, strengthening economic stability and improving resilience to global and regional volatility. Sustained momentum, they added, reflects successful policies to build a broader, more durable production base and support long-term growth.

Mega projects

Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at Riyad Bank, said the economy is moving toward a more diversified and sustainable model, with growth set to accelerate as reforms continue and mega projects expand.

“All indicators point to a positive outlook in the medium and long term. Despite geopolitical events, the consumer confidence index in March showed an expansionary trend, as did the Riyad Bank Purchasing Managers' Index in April, along with private sector optimism, signaling a faster recovery in growth momentum in the coming quarters,” he said.

Al-Ghaith said the data confirm strong progress in diversification driven by non-oil growth, adding that the economy is building solid foundations away from oil volatility. He said government policies have opened new investment opportunities in sectors including tourism, entertainment, technology, energy and infrastructure.

He added that the state continues to invest billions in mega projects to generate future revenues, alongside efforts by the Public Investment Fund to accelerate diversification through targeted local and international investments.

Geopolitical challenges

Hisham Abu Jameh, senior adviser at Naif Al Rajhi Investment, said the first-quarter performance reflects a balance between growth and the ability to absorb temporary external pressures, with GDP maintaining a positive pace despite geopolitical risks and energy market swings.

He said the economy is no longer heavily reliant on oil and is better positioned to absorb shocks thanks to more diverse income sources.

Abu Jameh said the non-oil sector remains a key stabilizer. Despite slower growth than in previous periods, it continues to expand, supported by sectors such as tourism, services and logistics.

He said this reflects the success of reforms under Saudi Vision 2030 and of ongoing efforts to boost investment and private-sector participation.

Sector contributions

Data from the General Authority for Statistics showed non-oil sectors led growth, contributing 1.7 percentage points, followed by oil at 0.7 percentage points and government activities at 0.3 percentage points. Net taxes on products added 0.2 percentage points.

Seasonally adjusted data showed GDP fell 1.5% in the first quarter from the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by a 7.2% drop in oil activities. Non-oil sectors grew 0.8%, while government activities rose 0.2%.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, oil activities were the main drag, cutting 1.7 percentage points from growth. Non-oil and government activities each added 0.1 percentage points.


Oil Prices Whipsaw while US Stocks Glide Near their Record Heights

Facilities of the PCK Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, northeastern Germany, are seen at the company's plant on April 30, 2026 - (File Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ / AFP)
Facilities of the PCK Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, northeastern Germany, are seen at the company's plant on April 30, 2026 - (File Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ / AFP)
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Oil Prices Whipsaw while US Stocks Glide Near their Record Heights

Facilities of the PCK Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, northeastern Germany, are seen at the company's plant on April 30, 2026 - (File Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ / AFP)
Facilities of the PCK Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, northeastern Germany, are seen at the company's plant on April 30, 2026 - (File Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ / AFP)

Oil prices whipsawed on Thursday and surged toward their highest levels since the war with Iran began, only for the leaps to quickly vanish. The US stock market, meanwhile, is gliding following more strong profit reports from big companies like Alphabet.

The S&P 500 rose 0.1% and is a bit below its all-time high set earlier this week, as companies continue to deliver fatter profits for the start of 2026 than analysts expected despite high oil prices and uncertainty about the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 413 points, or 0.8%, as of 10 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.3% lower, Reuters reported.

Alphabet led the way and rose 5.8% after the owner of Google and YouTube reported profit for the latest quarter that almost doubled analysts’ expectations. Investments in artificial intelligence “are lighting up every part of the business,” CEO Sundar Pichai said.

The steadiness on Wall Street followed manic swings in the oil market, where prices surged overnight on worries that the Iran war will affect the flow of crude for a long time. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers, keeping them pent up in the Arabian Gulf and away from customers worldwide, while a US Navy blockade is preventing Iran from selling its own oil.

Traders are always buying and selling contracts for different kinds of oil, going out for many months. In the most actively traded part of the market for Brent crude, the international standard, the price got as high as $114.70 overnight for a barrel of Brent to be delivered in July. It then regressed to $109.80, down 0.6%, which is still well above the roughly $70 per barrel that Brent was selling for before the war.

So far during the war, the peak price for the most actively traded Brent contract is $119.50, which was set last month.

In a less actively traded corner of the Brent market, the price for a barrel to be delivered in June briefly went above $126 overnight before pulling back toward $114.

That easing, along with the continuing flood of better-than-expected profit reports from US companies, helped to keep Wall Street stable near its records.

Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, O’Reilly Automotive and Royal Caribbean all rallied more than 6% after delivering profits for the latest quarter that topped analysts’ expectations. That’s crucial for investors because stock prices tend to follow the track of corporate profits over the long term.

Still, a better-than-expected result isn’t always enough to boost a stock’s price if it’s already shot much higher.

Meta Platforms tumbled 9.9% even though the company behind Facebook and Instagram made more profit last quarter than expected. Investors focused more on Meta’s increased forecast for how much it will spend on data centers and other investments this year as it builds out its AI capabilities, up to a range of $125 billion to $145 billion.

Doubts are still high among some investors about whether all the AI spending by Meta and other companies will produce enough profit and productivity to make it worth it.

Microsoft fell 4.5% after it likewise raised its forecast for investments and other capital spending. But analysts also said accelerating trends at its Azure business were encouraging.

Amazon slid 0.8% after blowing past analysts’ expectations for earnings in the latest quarter.

In the bond market, Treasury yields eased after oil prices gave up their big overnight gains. Reports also suggested that US economic growth accelerated by less in the first three months of the year than economists expected, while a measure of inflation worsened in March by about as much as expected.

A separate report said that fewer US workers applied for unemployment benefits last week in an indication of fewer layoffs even though companies are announcing large cuts to workforces.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.38% from 4.42% late Wednesday.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed.

London’s FTSE 100 jumped 1.3% after the Bank of England kept its main interest rate on hold.

Germany's DAX returned 0.7%, and France's CAC 40 slipped 0.2% after the European Central Bank also held its own interest rates steady. That followed similar decisions by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Tuesday to keep their rates unchanged.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.3%, while stocks added 0.1% in Shanghai after a report said China’s factory activity slowed slightly in April but remained in expansion territory for the second month.


Saudi GDP Grows 2.8% in First Quarter

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
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Saudi GDP Grows 2.8% in First Quarter

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)

Saudi Arabia's real gross domestic product grew 2.8% in the first quarter, year-on-year, preliminary government estimates showed on Thursday.

Non-oil activities grew 2.8% in the quarter, and oil activities increased 2.3% from the prior-year period, the General Authority of Statistics data ⁠showed.

On a quarterly basis, growth shrank 1.5% in the three months to March 31 compared to the fourth quarter, driven by a decline in oil activities.

Oil activity decreased 7.2% from the fourth quarter, while non-oil activity was almost flat.