How Will the Conflict in Sudan Impact Egypt's Stance over GERD?

A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy)
A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy)
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How Will the Conflict in Sudan Impact Egypt's Stance over GERD?

A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy)
A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy)

The fighting between the Sudanese military and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has raised concerns that it may affect the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) file as Ethiopia prepares for its fourth filling of the dam on the Nile River.

Observers and experts told Asharq Al-Awsat that the fighting will have a "direct impact" on a number of regional files, including the GERD crisis.

The fighting will "weaken Sudan's reservations" on the filling of the fourth reservoir that is set to begin in summer.

The weakened Sudanese position will only create a greater burden on Egypt and its international efforts to tackle the crisis, added the observers.

A spokesman for the Ethiopian foreign ministry declared last week that his country was determined to complete the construction of GERD.

Addis Ababa does not need anyone's permission to kick off the fourth filling of the dam, he added, stressing that the move will not harm Egypt and Sudan.

Ethiopia had completed the second filling in July 2021 and the third in August 2022. Just days ago, it announced that it had completed 90 percent of the dam.

The developments have deepened the dispute between Ethiopia with Egypt and Sudan that oppose the filling the dam and who have accused Addis Ababa of acting unilaterally.

Former Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Dr. Nasreddine Allam said the fighting in Sudan was unfortunate.

Sudan's stability is in Egypt and the region's strategic interest, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Any unrest in Sudan will have deep repercussions on vital strategic files, including water security, he remarked.

He added that the united Sudanese and Egyptian positions were a "real guarantee" that ensures the historic and legal rights of the Nile basin countries.

Cairo and Khartoum fear that the GERD will impact their share of the Nile waters. They have been demanding that Ethiopia join them in signing a binding legal agreement that manages the filling and operation of the dam.

Negotiations over the issue have stalled since January 2021.

Deputy Director of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies Ayman Abdulwahhab told Asharq Al-Awsat that the unrest in Sudan will directly impact several regional files, including the GERD dispute.

As Ethiopia nears the fourth filling, Sudan will unlikely make any protests or express any reservations amid its internal turmoil, he noted, throwing an added burden on Egypt to handle this vital file.

He urged regional powers, starting with Egypt, to act to put a stop to the internal fighting in Sudan to "avoid a repeat of painful experiences in history", such as those seen in Lebanon, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen and Syria, where internal conflicts flared out to have regional consequences.



Fear of Renewed War Reshapes Housing Choices in Beirut’s Southern Suburbs

Displaced people fleeing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon sit in traffic at a highway that links to Beirut, in the southern port city of Sidon. (AP)
Displaced people fleeing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon sit in traffic at a highway that links to Beirut, in the southern port city of Sidon. (AP)
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Fear of Renewed War Reshapes Housing Choices in Beirut’s Southern Suburbs

Displaced people fleeing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon sit in traffic at a highway that links to Beirut, in the southern port city of Sidon. (AP)
Displaced people fleeing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon sit in traffic at a highway that links to Beirut, in the southern port city of Sidon. (AP)

Fear of another war is prompting residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs to relocate or rent homes elsewhere. Housing decisions are no longer driven solely by the possibility of destruction or evacuation warnings. The prospect of renewed fighting is increasingly influencing where people choose to live, how they plan their marriages and even where they intend to spend their retirement.

Testimonies gathered by Asharq Al-Awsat reveal how families are reorganizing their lives in search of safety. Some have left the southern suburb, known as Dahiyeh, altogether, while others remain in their homes but maintain alternative accommodation in case they need to flee.

From homeowners paying additional rent to newlyweds choosing larger apartments to shelter relatives, security concerns are increasingly outweighing financial and social considerations.

Marital home for two families

For newlywed Nadia Houri, choosing a marital home was anything but a conventional decision.

Having lived in Beirut’s southern suburbs before her marriage, she decided to move to Bchamoun, making the possibility of another war a central consideration.

“When I decided to get married, I wasn’t thinking only about the home where my husband and I would live, but also about somewhere my family and my husband’s family could seek shelter if another war broke out,” Houri told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli air strike that targeted the Haret Hreik neighborhood in Beirut's southern suburbs. (AFP)

“That’s why I chose Bchamoun. I made sure the building was safe and the apartment spacious enough to accommodate both families.”

She said the additional expense was preferable to being unable to help relatives forced to flee their homes.

“I would rather bear the extra cost than see my family or my husband’s family displaced with nowhere to go. I wanted to be prepared for any emergency.”

Trauma of bombardment drives residents away

Lana Shouaib, from the Mreijeh neighborhood in the southern suburbs, rented a small studio in Beirut’s Ashrafieh after becoming increasingly uneasy about returning home. Her parents, meanwhile, moved to their village in the eastern Bekaa Valley.

“The situation is worrying, and security fears aren’t the only reason we’re staying away from the southern suburbs,” Shouaib told Asharq Al-Awsat. “The area is still suffering from all the destruction and water problems. All these factors made me look for somewhere else.”

Her greatest concern, however, remains the possibility of renewed airstrikes, particularly after experiencing a nighttime attack. With no guarantees that war will not resume, she finds the prospect of returning increasingly difficult. Shouaib is now considering leaving the neighborhood permanently.

“When this situation ends and things return to normal, we’ll sell the house and look somewhere else,” she said, acknowledging how difficult it is to abandon a home into which someone has invested a lifetime of hard work.

Retirement at an additional cost

Khaireddine, who asked that his full name not be published, did not wait for his home in the Sainte-Therese neighborhood of Beirut’s southern suburbs to suffer damage before deciding to leave.

Although the property remained intact, he and his wife moved to Khaldeh in Mount Lebanon, where they rented a house for $600 a month, hoping to spend their retirement away from fear and the prospect of repeated displacement.

“My house wasn’t damaged, and we could have stayed there. But we’re tired of being afraid and of the possibility of having to flee again,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. “We’ve reached an age when we want to rest and live peacefully, away from bombardment and anxiety about another war.”

Families displaced by Israeli strikes from southern Lebanon seek refuge at a school transformed into a shelter in Sidon. (AFP)

Their decision was also influenced by a desire to remain close to their children, who live in Khaldeh and the surrounding area.

Khaireddine acknowledged that paying $600 in monthly rent despite owning a habitable property placed an additional financial burden on the couple during retirement. But for him, the trade-off was worthwhile.

“Peace of mind has become more important to us,”he explained.

A summer chalet becomes an emergency refuge

Unlike those who have left, Abu Ali, a man in his 80s, still lives in his home in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

He has nevertheless taken a precautionary step, renting a chalet in Faraya on an annual lease in case another war erupts.

“I still live in the southern suburbs, and I don’t want to leave my home. But I’ve rented a chalet in Faraya for the whole year so I have somewhere to go if war resumes,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“I usually use it in the summer, but I decided to keep it in case of an emergency.”

Abu Ali explained that his advanced age had made him more determined to secure accommodation where he could relocate immediately if the security situation deteriorated, rather than search for shelter in the middle of a crisis.


Years on From Fall of ISIS, French Extremists Face Justice in Iraq

An ISIS flag hangs amid electric wires over a street in Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp, near the port-city of Sidon, southern Lebanon January 19, 2016. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho
An ISIS flag hangs amid electric wires over a street in Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp, near the port-city of Sidon, southern Lebanon January 19, 2016. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho
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Years on From Fall of ISIS, French Extremists Face Justice in Iraq

An ISIS flag hangs amid electric wires over a street in Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp, near the port-city of Sidon, southern Lebanon January 19, 2016. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho
An ISIS flag hangs amid electric wires over a street in Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp, near the port-city of Sidon, southern Lebanon January 19, 2016. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho

A decade ago, the ISIS group broadcast its crimes as it recruited radicals from around the world and imposed a brutal system of oppression across swathes of Syria and Iraq.

Years on from the group's military defeat, accused members are again in the spotlight -- this time on trial in Iraq, including French nationals, for atrocities committed against the people trapped in the so-called caliphate.

Trials began in September for 47 French citizens who were transferred from Syria last year, charged with belonging to the group that controlled large parts of both countries between 2014 and 2017.

In its first verdicts handed down last week, Baghdad's Karkh Criminal Court sentenced nine men to jail terms of up to 20 years.

A 24-year-old defendant, taken to Syria by his mother more than 10 years ago, was given 15 years. AFP is withholding his identity for legal reasons.

When the sentence was announced, the man said in Arabic: "I went to Syria, but it was my mother who chose for me. What is my fault?"

- 'Deceived' -

Thousands of people travelled from Europe to join ISIS during the war in Syria, where it declared a caliphate in 2014.

France, while repatriating hundreds of family members of extremists, has refused to bring back most of the men accused of involvement, leaving them to face justice abroad.

Many French recruits were from disadvantaged suburbs of major cities and faced limited opportunities.

The group jailed or killed anyone who dared speak out against its atrocities.

Fear was the group's instrument of domination over areas where women were hidden from view and where executions were carried out by bearded militants in public squares, for all to see.

Now, the accused are now being brought to court with shaved faces, wearing orange jumpsuits.

About 1,500 French people are believed to have joined ISIS.

Among them was Kamel Ben Mbarek, 42, who said he had worked as a driver for the group's police in Raqqa, in northern Syria.

"I regret it... because I wasn't young when the organization deceived me," he told the court.

Fewer than half of the French defendants have appeared so far.

"I regret everything I did. I've lost everything," said Adel Bouaoun, 28, accused of taking part in ISIS operations in Syria's Aleppo and Palmyra.

He recounted harsh conditions in Kurdish-run prisons in Syria, saying detainees had died, and described "physical and psychological torture".

ISIS was defeated in Iraq in 2017 and then in Syria in 2019 by a US-led coalition.

Thousands of extremists, along with their families, were left in Syrian prisons and camps under Kurdish command.

Earlier this year, the new Syrian authorities that came to power after the fall of Bashar al-Assad took over the prisons holding the extremists.

The US army then transferred more than 5,700 detainees of about 60 nationalities to Iraq, including at least five French nationals.

Rights groups have criticized the judicial process, calling it rushed and saying that confessions were extracted under duress.

"This entire procedure is a form of pressure. You have recorded statements that are not mine," Lakhdar Sebouai, 34, said in court.

Also among those awaiting trial is Adrien Guihal, who claimed responsibility on behalf of ISIS for the July 2016 attack in Nice, when a truck rammed Bastille Day crowds, killing 86 people.

- 'Law of the jungle' -

At one hearing, three defendants were visibly moved when they saw their siblings, who had come from France, for the first time in years.

The judge allowed them to speak together for a few minutes.

In October, French lawyers Matthieu Bagard and Marie Dose, who are defending many of the 47 French nationals, said the Iraqi judiciary had barred them from entering the country to attend the hearings, after they described the detainees' treatment as "inhumane".

The two lawyers are calling for the defendants' repatriation to France so they can be tried there.

Two Iraqi lawyers appointed in their absence refused to speak to AFP.

"Even if his sentence is different, he was tortured like an adult and tried like an adult," Bagard told AFP, referring to the 24-year-old taken to Syria as a child.

Observers, representatives of the French embassy and journalists are attending the trials.

Rights groups fear death sentences will be handed out.

Before the court, Thomas Barnouin, 45, whose verdict is expected November 18, recalled travelling to Syria at the start of the conflict, convinced that he had a religious duty.

But "the organization applied the law of the jungle, not the law of God", he said.

"We did not know that it also wanted to carry out terrorist attacks in our own country, in France," he added.

"I reject all its crimes."


Report: Iran’s Hidden Web of Military Agencies Is Slipping Hardware Past the US Blockade

Iranian missiles are displayed on a street in Tehran, Iran, September 27, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Iranian missiles are displayed on a street in Tehran, Iran, September 27, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
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Report: Iran’s Hidden Web of Military Agencies Is Slipping Hardware Past the US Blockade

Iranian missiles are displayed on a street in Tehran, Iran, September 27, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Iranian missiles are displayed on a street in Tehran, Iran, September 27, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters

Iran has created a secret network of military agencies with global reach to import at least $2 billion in hardware, explosives and heavy-duty trucks since January 2025, evading both the US naval blockade and Western sanctions, a Reuters investigation has found.

Hidden behind names ‌starting with the letters MOD, for the Ministry of Defense, are more than 5,000 agencies that form a formidable financial and military machine. Their financial footprints are on bills of lading and other shipping data dating back to 2016. Some are tied to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and to business conglomerates known as bonyads that are controlled by Iran's elite.

The findings offer a window into one of the war’s great mysteries: How is the IRGC replenishing its missile and drone arsenals while firing them in their thousands?

In the 18 months from January 2025 to June 2026 – including four months into this year’s war – a single one of these agencies, MOD 346428, imported huge quantities of rocket propellants, explosives and weapons components that are critical for making drones and missiles, as well as heavy-duty trucks that can serve as missile launchers. The hardware came in by land, sea and air – much of it recorded as originating in China, Russia and Germany.

This investigation of the MOD network is based on thousands of Iranian bank and government records, corporate filings and import data.

The secret agencies all share the same Tehran address as Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics, or MODAFL. They list their incorporation date as February 11, 1979, the day Khomeini took power in Iran after overthrowing the monarchy. Most were actually established in 2013, the records show, as Iran struggled under sanctions that saw its crude exports and currency plunge.

The agencies, identified for the first time by Reuters in collaboration with the Israeli-American risk consultancy 240 Analytics, form the backbone of Iran’s military procurement and sanctions evasion apparatus. They operate a web of frontmen and foreign shell companies, collectively known as trustees, who use the proceeds from illicit oil sales to buy goods for Iran.

Senior military leaders involved in Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programs use the network. Phone numbers registered to 91 of the agencies also appear in records from state-run Bank Sepah of IRGC personnel with accounts there. Among them are at least two commanders the US has accused of abuses against civilian protestors.

While Iran’s military has been under multiple US sanctions for decades, Reuters could find no evidence that any of the numbered agencies referenced in the documents have been designated by Western governments.

“What you have here is the regime's military lifeline during this conflict and for many years before,” said Miad Maleki, a former senior official at the US Treasury Department who helped design the American sanctions program against Iran. “This is the complete ecosystem of the Iranian military’s trade business.”

The weapons import network has provided many of the raw materials Iran needs to make missiles and drones. Those munitions are responsible for Iran’s relentless precision attacks against Gulf energy infrastructure, allowing Tehran to blunt America’s military assault.

In other reports this year, Reuters has shown how Iran withstood US pressure by exploiting crypto exchanges and illegal gambling networks to tap illicit revenues and circumvent sanctions, how the IRGC consolidated control of the Strait of Hormuz, and how the war has ushered in a new era of repression.

Maleki was one of four experts on Iranian sanctions and weapons who reviewed the Reuters findings and confirmed that many of the materials could be used in Iran’s missile and drone programs.

None of the Iranian government entities or companies contacted by Reuters responded to detailed requests for comment, including Tehran’s UN delegation to Geneva and the presidency.

In a statement in response to the Reuters findings, a Treasury Department spokeswoman said the United States “has severed the regime’s economic lifelines.”

“While the regime may continue its desperate attempts to evade our powerful sanctions, fund its military and weapons programs, and access foreign currency, we are always 10 steps ahead,” the spokeswoman said.

In tracking the materials, Reuters cross-checked a portion of some 19,000 import records using the shipping documents, footage from social media, and state media reports. Nearly all of the items that Iran imported were exempt from duty and specifically marked as military equipment, the data shows. The experts noted that much of the material, even explosives, can be considered dual-use, and so could also have civilian purposes.

The Wall Street Journal reported some of the shipments from China on September 23.

PARALLEL TRADE SYSTEM

The secret military agencies form a foreign-trade system parallel to the formal global economy that allows Iran to spend the money it earns abroad selling illicit oil on military hardware, said Maleki, who was the associate director of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control until last year.

Money rarely crosses borders, where it might trip a sanctions alarm. Instead, for 97% of the shipments Reuters reviewed, the transactions were settled “without currency transfer,” the import data shows. Trusted frontmen in the diaspora, using cash held in foreign banks, bought the goods and shipped them home.

One end user of the network is the military unit overseeing Iran’s ballistic missile program. Another is Sahara Thunder, which was sanctioned by the US in 2024 for manufacturing and supplying drones to Russia that have devastated Ukraine. Reuters and 240 Analytics identified the Iranian military units by cross-referencing the import data with corporate registry filings, and emails and documents compiled on the website WikiIran.

Reuters could not determine the identities of the people who run WikiIran, a website that solicits leaked documents from the Islamic Republic and says it is operated by Iranians opposed to the government and “forced into exile.”

During the first six months of this year, according to the import data, deliveries included $1.9 million worth of detonators, tons of explosives, aircraft engine parts, rocket fuel ingredients and heavy-duty launch vehicles. All could be used as key components to build and fire ballistic missiles and drones ‌including the Shahed series, according to weapons and sanctions experts.

“This ‌looks like an industrial-scale effort to rebuild or expand Iran's existing fleet” of drones and missiles, said Peter Salisbury, an adjunct assistant professor at Columbia University who has spent the past several years researching Iranian arms transfers and supply chains. “This data clearly shows the Iranian ecosystem’s adaptability and its ability to find new routes.”

Salisbury and one of the other experts said they have used WikiIran’s data in the past and have found it to ‌be accurate.

The United States ⁠and Israel have targeted Iran’s ballistic missile and ⁠drone operations from the start of this year’s war on February 28, including factories the Pentagon said were turning out munitions. Reuters could not determine the extent of the damage, but Iran has continued to fire on its neighbors and on ships trying to transit Hormuz.

The material entered Iran by cargo ship across the Caspian Sea from Russia, by truck from Central Asia, and by freight planes from China,, according to documents reviewed by Reuters and records provided by ImportGenius, a platform that aggregates import-export data.

In response to detailed questions about the Reuters findings, China’s Foreign Ministry said it was “unaware of the situation you describe.”

“We firmly oppose attempts to maliciously link regional hostilities to China or smear China’s reputation,” the Foreign Ministry said in a faxed statement.

Russia’s Defense Ministry, the White House and CENTCOM did not respond to requests for comment.

Beyond individual components, Iran is buying precision machinery that could be used to manufacture its own military equipment. The purchases include items coded as sophisticated computer-controlled lathes, electron-beam furnaces and particle accelerators, according to import data that runs to June. All have industrial purposes and can also be used to make military equipment, including drone and missile bodies.

On October 12, US President Donald Trump said he did not believe China and Russia were providing support to Iran. “If they are, it’s at a very low level, but I don’t believe they are at all,” he posted on social media. “They have too much to lose, and we would know about it, and know about it very fast!”