Is China Playing a Role in Rebuilding Egyptian-Iranian Relations?

 Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry during his reception of the Iranian delegation participating in the COP 27 summit in Sharm El-Sheikh last November (Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry during his reception of the Iranian delegation participating in the COP 27 summit in Sharm El-Sheikh last November (Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
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Is China Playing a Role in Rebuilding Egyptian-Iranian Relations?

 Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry during his reception of the Iranian delegation participating in the COP 27 summit in Sharm El-Sheikh last November (Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry during his reception of the Iranian delegation participating in the COP 27 summit in Sharm El-Sheikh last November (Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

A recent research paper released by the Jeddah-based Gulf Research Center has outlined two scenarios for the future of Egyptian-Iranian relations: the reestablishment and strengthening of diplomatic ties, or the continuation of the current state of estrangement while maintaining a policy of de-escalation.

Youssef Khattab, the author of the research paper, explained that the severed ties between the two nations do not stem from a deep-rooted historical strategic conflict, fundamental clashes of interests, geopolitical rivalry, or other factors that perpetuate perpetual tension and animosity between countries.

According to Khattab, this fact makes it relatively easier for both nations to restore their relations if the will and sincerity exist.

In his report, Khattab points out two potential scenarios for the future relations between Egypt and Iran.

The first scenario involves the reestablishment and consolidation of diplomatic ties. This scenario holds significant potential to serve the interests of both nations and their people, especially considering the economic hardships they currently face.

To alleviate inflation, unemployment, and other pressures, both countries would need to expand their cooperation in trade, finance, and investment.

According to the report, there are factors that support the scenario of diplomatic reconciliation between Egypt and Iran. The global economic crises caused by the coronavirus pandemic have affected all nations, especially developing or third-world countries, which lacked the capabilities to effectively cope with the crisis and swiftly recover from its aftermath.

This has led both countries to seek closer cooperation, shun discord, and mend their relations.

Additionally, the Russian invasion of Ukraine compelled many nations to pursue conflict de-escalation, problem-solving, and prioritizing national interests.

The researcher highlighted the resolution of the tense Iran-Gulf relations, with successful normalization and resumption of ties with Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Khattab also mentioned the possibility of China mediating a historic agreement similar to the Saudi-Iranian accord, which could help bridge the gap between Cairo and Tehran.

This possibility arises from China's strategic interest in competing with the US for influence in the region.

Khattab further elaborated that achieving this scenario would require Egypt’s responsiveness to Iran’s acceptance of Omani mediation to restore relations.

Egypt should engage with the supportive statements from Iranian officials regarding reconciliation and overcome hesitation by embracing dialogue and negotiation.

Khattab emphasized that Iran must back its statements and welcoming gestures towards restoring relations with tangible steps that build trust and seriousness in Egypt’s ongoing efforts for reconciliation.

Historically, Iran has been the one to step back from re-establishing relations in previous attempts.



What Message is Hamas Sending by Resuming Rocket Fire on Israel?

Emergency personnel work at an impact scene following a hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza strip towards Israel, in Ashkelon, Israel April 6, 2025. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Emergency personnel work at an impact scene following a hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza strip towards Israel, in Ashkelon, Israel April 6, 2025. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
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What Message is Hamas Sending by Resuming Rocket Fire on Israel?

Emergency personnel work at an impact scene following a hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza strip towards Israel, in Ashkelon, Israel April 6, 2025. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Emergency personnel work at an impact scene following a hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza strip towards Israel, in Ashkelon, Israel April 6, 2025. REUTERS/Amir Cohen

The launch of 10 rockets by Hamas’s armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, toward Israel on Sunday surprised many observers, marking a sharp escalation in rocket fire that had largely been limited to one or two missiles since Israel broke a truce on March 18.

Most recent rocket attacks were believed to have come from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, but Sunday’s barrage was claimed by Hamas, signaling a possible shift in the dynamics of the conflict.

According to Israeli claims, the rockets were fired from the al-Zawaida area, north of Deir al-Balah in central Gaza. However, field sources told Asharq Al-Awsat the rockets were launched from a different location — one that has rarely been used for such operations.

The recent rocket barrage by Hamas may have carried a deeper strategic message, the sources told Asharq Al-Awsat, suggesting the attack was intended to raise questions within Israel about the group’s ability to access its missile arsenal — or hint at a regained capacity to manufacture rockets.

Hamas sources declined to specify when the rockets used in the latest attack were produced but stressed that the decision to launch was shaped primarily by field conditions and the assessment of fighters and commanders on the ground.

“At times, we aim to send specific political messages,” said a Hamas source, who requested anonymity.

“For example, we want to underline that Israel has failed to defeat the movement and its military wing, despite carrying out assassinations of senior and field-level commanders,” they added.

Hamas has denied that its latest rocket barrage was a direct response to the recent assassinations of senior figures, saying the attack was part of its broader reaction to what it described as “ongoing massacres” committed by Israel against the Palestinian people.

“This was a routine response within the framework of confronting continuous Israeli aggression,” the Hamas source told Asharq Al-Awsat, rejecting suggestions that the assault was linked to specific events.

The timing of the rocket fire raised eyebrows, coming just hours after a rare protest in Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza, where demonstrators chanted against Hamas, condemned the rocket attacks, and demanded an end to the war.

Protesters also called for Hamas to relinquish control of the Gaza Strip and stop speaking on behalf of its residents.

Asked whether the barrage was meant to send a message to a restless population, Hamas sources denied any connection.

“The rocket fire had nothing to do with the protest in Jabalia,” one source said, pointing to similar demonstrations in recent weeks that were not followed by rocket launches.

When pressed about the implications of such protests for the group’s future in Gaza, the source said internal discussions had taken place.

“The movement recognizes people’s right to express themselves — but not at the expense of the resistance,” the source said.

“There must be clear national guidelines that prioritize ending the war while preserving the legitimacy of the resistance,” they added.

Gaza Governance

Hamas also pushed back against accusations that it is clinging to power in Gaza, placing blame on rival faction Fatah and Israel for blocking proposals aimed at resolving the territory’s political deadlock.

“Hamas has no issue stepping down from governing Gaza,” a source said. “The real obstacle lies with others who have rejected every proposal laid on the table.”

The source pointed to a proposed community support committee, formed with Egyptian mediation, which was meant to take over governance duties. “We showed maximum flexibility, but neither Fatah nor Israel accepted this mechanism,” the source added.

As for whether stepping down from power could weaken Hamas's influence in Gaza, the source appeared unconcerned. “The movement is confident in its endurance,” the source said.

“Even if Hamas relinquishes control and enters a long-term ceasefire, it will continue to exist and maintain its presence,” they affirmed.

A Fatah delegation had held talks with Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty two days ago, focusing primarily on internal Palestinian reconciliation and the future governance of Gaza, as Hamas signaled readiness to hand over administrative responsibilities to a proposed community support committee.

Multiple Hamas sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the group had informed Egyptian officials of its willingness to allow a minister from the Palestinian Authority’s Ramallah-based government to head the committee, with a deputy from Gaza appointed to assist.

A Hamas delegation is expected to travel to Cairo in the coming days to continue discussions with Egyptian officials on the evolving plans for Gaza’s administration and broader efforts to resolve the internal Palestinian divide.