Strait of Hormuz... Potential Miscalculations

In this handout image from the US Navy, an MQ-9 Sea Guardian unmanned maritime surveillance drone flies over the USS Coronado in the Pacific Ocean during a drill April 21, 2021. (US Navy/Chief Mass Communication Specialist Shannon Renfroe, via AP)
In this handout image from the US Navy, an MQ-9 Sea Guardian unmanned maritime surveillance drone flies over the USS Coronado in the Pacific Ocean during a drill April 21, 2021. (US Navy/Chief Mass Communication Specialist Shannon Renfroe, via AP)
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Strait of Hormuz... Potential Miscalculations

In this handout image from the US Navy, an MQ-9 Sea Guardian unmanned maritime surveillance drone flies over the USS Coronado in the Pacific Ocean during a drill April 21, 2021. (US Navy/Chief Mass Communication Specialist Shannon Renfroe, via AP)
In this handout image from the US Navy, an MQ-9 Sea Guardian unmanned maritime surveillance drone flies over the USS Coronado in the Pacific Ocean during a drill April 21, 2021. (US Navy/Chief Mass Communication Specialist Shannon Renfroe, via AP)

Tension between the United States and Iran has escalated, following Washington’s proposal to place guards on commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf, and to send more than 3,000 US sailors to the Middle East, as part of a plan to strengthen military presence in the region.

Tehran considers the Strait of Hormuz a strategic point, and has long used it as a pressure card on the West to push for the lifting of sanctions on Iran.

Washington, for its part, justifies its decision by saying that Iran has seized or attempted to capture about 20 ships in the region over the past two years. It says its forces prevented two Iranian attempts to seize two oil tankers in international waters off Oman on July 5, while Tehran seized a commercial ship the next day.

In April and early May, Iran captured two tankers within a week in the territorial waters, and was also accused of launching a drone attack on a ship owned by an Israeli company in November 2022.

A US official told AFP last week about plans to deploy armed personnel on commercial ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, in what would be an unheard of action aimed at stopping Iran from seizing and harassing civilian vessels.

Strategic corridor

The escalation of tension, which has been renewed for years, highlights the real importance of the Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and the Sultanate of Oman, which connects the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

Its location within the world’s largest oil-producing region has given it both economic and political importance.

The website of the Omani Ministry of Information states that the Strait of Hormuz is an international water strait located between the Omani Musandam Peninsula in the south and Iranian territory in the north. It stretches along 280 km and is approximately 56 km wide.

A fifth of the world’s petroleum liquids and a quarter of the world’s liquefied natural gas are transported through the strait, while 10 percent of the total US oil imports pass through it every month.

This makes the Strait of Hormuz not only the world’s busiest shipping lane, but also the most strategically important point for the world’s oil supplies, as very limited alternatives are available to bypass it.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) says on its official website: “The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil chokepoint because of the large volumes of oil that flow through the strait. In 2018, its daily oil flow averaged 21 million barrels per day (b/d), or the equivalent of about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption.”

EIA estimates that 76% of the crude oil and condensate that moved through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asian markets in 2018. China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore were the largest destinations for crude oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz to Asia, accounting for 65% of all Hormuz crude oil and condensate flows in 2018.

In 2018, the United States imported about 1.4 million b/d of crude oil and condensate from Arabian Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for about 18% of total US crude oil and condensate imports and 7% of total US petroleum liquids consumption.

China’s interests

China – the world’s largest oil importer - has major interests in the Strait of Hormuz.

Maritime security consultancy Dryad Global indicates that about 25 percent of the oil exported daily through the strait goes to China.

From here, it is possible to understand the dimensions of the Iranian-Chinese cooperation program that was signed in March of 2021.

At the time, the New York Times published a report saying that the 25-year commercial and strategic cooperation agreement provides for Beijing investing $400 billion in the Iranian economy, in exchange for Iran providing China with steady oil supplies at very low prices.



Saudi Arabia, Syria Sign Joint Airline and Telecoms Deals

Officials pose after signing a framework agreement for developmental cooperation and the launch of 45 development initiatives between the Syrian Development Fund and Saudi Arabia's Development Committee at the People's Palace in Damascus, Syria, Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026. (AP)
Officials pose after signing a framework agreement for developmental cooperation and the launch of 45 development initiatives between the Syrian Development Fund and Saudi Arabia's Development Committee at the People's Palace in Damascus, Syria, Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026. (AP)
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Saudi Arabia, Syria Sign Joint Airline and Telecoms Deals

Officials pose after signing a framework agreement for developmental cooperation and the launch of 45 development initiatives between the Syrian Development Fund and Saudi Arabia's Development Committee at the People's Palace in Damascus, Syria, Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026. (AP)
Officials pose after signing a framework agreement for developmental cooperation and the launch of 45 development initiatives between the Syrian Development Fund and Saudi Arabia's Development Committee at the People's Palace in Damascus, Syria, Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026. (AP)

Syria and Saudi Arabia signed deals Saturday that include a joint airline and a $1-billion project to develop telecommunications, officials said, as Syria seeks to rebuild after years of war.

The new authorities in Damascus have worked to attract investment and have signed major agreements with several companies and governments.

Syrian Investment Authority chief Talal al-Hilali announced a series of deals including "a low-cost Syrian-Saudi airline aimed at strengthening regional and international air links".

The agreement also includes the development of a new international airport in the northern city of Aleppo, and redeveloping the existing facility.

Hilali also announced an agreement for a project called SilkLink to develop Syria's "telecommunications infrastructure and digital connectivity".

Syrian Telecommunications Minister Abdulsalam Haykal told the signing ceremony that the project would be implemented "with an investment of around $1 billion".

For decades, Syria was unable to secure significant investments because of Assad-era sanctions.

But the United States fully removed its remaining sanctions on Damascus late last year, paving the way for the full return of investments.

Syria and Saudi Arabia also inked an agreement on water desalination and development cooperation on Saturday.

At the ceremony, Saudi Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih announced the launch of an investment fund for "major projects in Syria with the participation of the (Saudi) private sector".

The deals are part of "building a strategic partnership" between the two countries, he said.

Syria's Hilali said the agreements targeted "vital sectors that impact people's lives and form essential pillars for rebuilding the Syrian economy".

Syria has begun the mammoth task of trying to rebuild its shattered infrastructure and economy.

In July last year, Riyadh signed investment and partnership deals with Damascus valued at $6.4 billion to help rebuild the country's infrastructure, telecommunications and other major sectors.

A month later, Syria signed agreements worth more than $14 billion, including investments in Damascus airport and other transport and real estate projects.

This week, Syria signed a preliminary deal with US energy giant Chevron and Qatari firm Power International to explore for oil and gas offshore.


India’s Modi Lauds Interim Trade Pact After US Tariff Rollback

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)
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India’s Modi Lauds Interim Trade Pact After US Tariff Rollback

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday hailed an interim trade agreement with the United States, saying it would bolster global growth and deepen economic ties between the two countries.

The pact cuts US "reciprocal" duties on Indian products to 18 percent from 25 percent, and commits India to large purchases of US energy and industrial goods.

US President Donald Trump, while announcing the deal Tuesday, had said Modi promised to stop buying Russian oil over the war in Ukraine.

The deal eases months of tensions over India's oil purchases -- which Washington says fund a conflict it is trying to end -- and restores the close ties between Trump and the man he describes as "one of my greatest friends."

"Great news for India and USA!" Modi said on X on Saturday, praising US President Donald Trump's "personal commitment" to strengthening bilateral ties.

The agreement, he said, reflected "the growing depth, trust and dynamism" of their partnership.

Modi's remarks came hours after Trump issued an executive order scrapping an additional 25 percent levy imposed over New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil, in a step to implement the trade deal announced this week.

Modi, who has faced criticism at home about opening access of Indian agricultural markets to the United States and terms on oil imports, did not mention Russian oil in his statement.

"This framework will also strengthen resilient and trusted supply chains and contribute to global growth," he said.

It would also create fresh opportunities for Indian farmers, entrepreneurs and fishermen under the "Make in India" initiative.

In a separate statement, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said the pact would "open a $30 trillion market for Indian exporters".

Goyal also said the deal protects India's sensitive agricultural and dairy products, including maize, wheat, rice, soya, poultry and milk.

Other terms of the agreement include the removal of tariffs on certain aircraft and parts, according to a separate joint statement released Friday by the White House.

The statement added that India intends to purchase $500 billion of US energy products, aircraft and parts, precious metals, tech products and coking coal over the next five years.

The shift marks a significant reduction in US tariffs on Indian products, down from a rate of 50 percent late last year.

Washington and New Delhi are expected to sign a formal trade deal in March.


Gold Bounces Back on Softer Dollar, US-Iran Concerns; Silver Rebounds

Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth
Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth
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Gold Bounces Back on Softer Dollar, US-Iran Concerns; Silver Rebounds

Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth
Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth

Gold rebounded on Friday and was set for a weekly gain, helped by bargain hunting, a slightly weaker dollar and lingering concerns over US-Iran talks in Oman, while silver recovered from a 1-1/2-month low.

Spot gold rose 3.1% to $4,916.98 per ounce by 09:31 a.m. ET (1431 GMT), recouping losses posted during a volatile Asia session that followed a fall of 3.9% on Thursday. Bullion was headed for a weekly gain of about 1.3%.

US gold futures for April delivery gained 1% to $4,939.70 per ounce.

The US dollar index fell 0.3%, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for the overseas buyers.

"The gold market is seeing perceived bargain hunting from bullish traders," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.

Iran and the US started high-stakes negotiations via Omani mediation on Friday to try to overcome sharp differences over Tehran's nuclear program.

Wyckoff said gold's rebound lacks momentum and the metal is unlikely to break records without a major geopolitical trigger.

Gold, a traditional safe haven, does well in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Spot silver rose 5.3% to $74.98 an ounce after dipping below $65 earlier, but was still headed for its biggest weekly drop since 2011, down over 10.6%, following steep losses last week as well.

"What we're seeing in silver is huge speculation on the long side," said Wyckoff, adding that after years in a boom cycle, gold and silver now appear to be entering a typical commodity bust phase.

CME Group raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures for a third time in two weeks on Thursday to curb risks from heightened market volatility.

Spot platinum added 3.2% to $2,052 per ounce, while palladium gained 4.9% to $1,695.18. Both were down for the week.