Israeli Intelligence Predicted Hamas Attack, Netanyahu Ignored Warning

The destruction left by the Israeli airstrikes on the city of Gaza on Nov. 8. (AFP)
The destruction left by the Israeli airstrikes on the city of Gaza on Nov. 8. (AFP)
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Israeli Intelligence Predicted Hamas Attack, Netanyahu Ignored Warning

The destruction left by the Israeli airstrikes on the city of Gaza on Nov. 8. (AFP)
The destruction left by the Israeli airstrikes on the city of Gaza on Nov. 8. (AFP)

Two documents surfaced in Tel Aviv on Tuesday, revealing that the research division of the Israeli military intelligence, known as Aman, had predicted an impending attack by either Hamas or Hezbollah, or both, in 2023.

A warning about this was communicated to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

However, it seems that Netanyahu paid little attention and took no action to alter his policy that encourages Palestinian movements or the Lebanon-based Hezbollah to plan attacks.

The head of the research division at Aman personally warned Netanyahu in letters sent to him in March and July that the sociopolitical crisis that rocked Israel was encouraging Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas to risk action against Israel, even simultaneously.

Brigadier General Amit Sa’ar wrote to Netanyahu on March 19, a week before the first attempt to confirm the judicial overhaul legislation, and the attempted dismissal of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and again on July 16, a week before the Knesset vote on repealing the “reasonableness standard”.

He attached raw intelligence reports to each of the letters, which were published by the Haaretz daily. The reports contained a brief analysis warning of an impending danger of military escalation.

The first letter was sent with the heading, “The view from over there – how is Israel perceived in the [regional] system?” Sa’ar noted that “all actors in the systems indicate that Israel is in a blistering, unprecedented crisis threatening its cohesion and weakening it for our main enemies, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.”

“This weakness is an expression of a process ending in the collapse of Israel, and the current situation is an opportunity to accelerate and deepen its distress.”

Sa’ar clarified that “this analysis is not an interpretive view of reality, but the basis for a situation assessment by leadership figures, intelligence, and communications systems. It is already leading to changes in decision-making and risk-taking of various actors, who analyze and deduce implications from Israel’s internal condition.”



Baghdad Urges Washington to Prevent ‘Imminent’ Israeli Strikes

Sudani visiting a market in Baghdad on Thursday (Government media)
Sudani visiting a market in Baghdad on Thursday (Government media)
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Baghdad Urges Washington to Prevent ‘Imminent’ Israeli Strikes

Sudani visiting a market in Baghdad on Thursday (Government media)
Sudani visiting a market in Baghdad on Thursday (Government media)

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani on Thursday called on major powers to “exert greater efforts to end the war in Palestine and Lebanon.” Meanwhile, an Iraqi government official urged the United States to “prevent any attacks on the country,” referring to potential Israeli strikes.
During a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Al-Sudani stressed the importance of ensuring the conflict does not escalate “to a level that threatens regional and global stability.”
The Iraqi prime minister’s appeal comes amid reports suggesting that Israel may launch strikes on Iraq in retaliation for attacks by Iraqi armed factions targeting Israeli positions.
The Iraqi government is striving to assert its exclusive authority over weapons and war-related decisions. However, armed factions affiliated with the Axis of Resistance openly claim responsibility for near-daily rocket attacks on Israel. This has provided Israel with a justification for potentially targeting Iraqi territory, especially after it filed a complaint with the UN Security Council against six Iraqi factions and held Baghdad responsible for the attacks.
These factions have also openly declared their involvement in the ongoing conflict with Israel in Lebanon and Gaza. The Iraqi government has been unable to take decisive action to halt the activities of these factions, which many believe could soon expose Iraq to an Israeli strike.
According to media reports, Washington has warned Baghdad that Israeli airstrikes on Iraq are “imminent” unless the Iraqi government curtails attacks by Iranian-backed factions on Israel. The Times of Israel cited sources indicating that the United States has “exhausted all means of pressure on Israel” and urged Iraq to act swiftly to prevent such attacks.
Despite repeated assurances from the Iraqi government—including its recent adoption of 12 measures by the National Security Council to counter Israeli threats and complaints—the situation remains tense. These measures include monitoring Iraq’s western borders, preventing factions from launching attacks, and maintaining Iraq’s neutrality in the ongoing conflict.
On Wednesday, Abu Hussein Al-Hamidawi, Secretary-General of Kata’ib Hezbollah, made a striking statement on the role of resistance factions in the war and their commitment to the Unity of Fronts doctrine frequently mentioned by Axis of Resistance groups.
In an interview published by the faction’s media arm, Al-Hamidawi said: “The continuity of the Unity of Fronts concept depends on what the Lebanese Hezbollah decides.”
Al-Hamidawi also emphasized that resistance factions are constantly coordinating internally and with external partners such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Palestinian resistance leaders.
“We aim to ensure that the Palestinian people are not left alone and that the Unity of Fronts remains intact,” he stated.
Fadi Al-Shammari, a political advisor to Sudani, reiterated that Israel’s threats “are not new,” citing the recent complaint filed by Israel with the UN Security Council as part of its pattern of issuing threats.
In media statements, Al-Shammari reaffirmed the Iraqi government’s long-standing position: “The decision of war and peace lies solely with the Iraqi government.”
He noted that the factions’ attacks are being launched from areas outside Iraq’s borders, specifically from Syria. However, he stressed that the Iraqi government is working through its security and military agencies to prevent Iraq from becoming a battlefield for external or internal parties.
Al-Shammari also called on the United States to fulfill its responsibilities under the Strategic Framework Agreement and security pact with Iraq, emphasizing the need to deter and respond to any external attacks that threaten Iraq’s internal security.