Military operations have escalated over the past few hours amid Israeli discussions regarding a transition to a "new phase" of occupation in southern Lebanon. Attack helicopters and tanks have been redeployed alongside airstrikes, artillery fire, and heavy weaponry sweeps.
Amid ongoing airstrikes, demolition operations, and movements on the ground, a critical question is being raised in Lebanon: Is the Israeli escalation limited to intensifying military pressure, or is it paving the way for a shift in the nature of operations and occupation in the South?
While the new date for the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations has not yet been set, the head of the Lebanese negotiating delegation, Simon Karam, is expected to visit the Vatican, where he will meet with Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Foreign Minister Paul Richard Gallagher to discuss the negotiation file and the role the Vatican could play in supporting this path, informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun was in Rome recently where he discussed the negotiations.
On the ground, Israeli attacks continued in the South on Sunday where an Apache helicopter struck a commercial center on the Shokin-Mayfadoun road in the Nabatieh region, while heavy machine-gun sweeps targeted the towns of Beit Yahoun, Serbine, and Wadi Zibqeen.
An ambulance crew survived an airstrike that targeted a building while personnel were in the area conducting a field inspection following a previous raid, resulting in damage to shops and residential apartments in the targeted building.
An Israeli Merkava tank also targeted the town of Hadatha with four shells, before Israeli forces advanced toward a center in the town and set fire to the location. The Israeli army also demolished a number of houses in the town of al-Mansouri on Sunday.
The Israeli army announced that it attacked Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, stating that the strikes came in response to the launch of an explosive-laden drone toward its forces during the past night.
Retired general and military expert Hassan Jouni said the recent Israeli operations could either be part of routine maneuvers or aimed at finalizing operations in the al-Mansouri area.
This comes as the Israeli army announced it is nearing the completion of its phase focused on destroying Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the region.
Consequently, the central question following the conclusion of this phase focuses on what Israel's next move will be, Jouni told Asharq Al-Awsat.
"According to Israeli sources and official positions, discussions are underway regarding a redeployment of the army into positions currently under preparation,” he added.
This would consolidate the Israeli military presence and its defensive positions in the buffer zone and along the borders of the Yellow Line, he said.
However, Israeli operations, particularly Saturday's targeting of the Jabal al-Rihan region and its surroundings, Jabal Safi, and Sejod, are troubling indicators regarding the potential launch of a military offensive in the Iqlim al-Tuffah region, which lies geographically north of Ali al-Taher, added Jouni.
He explained that "Iqlim al-Tuffah is historically considered one of the last areas in southern Lebanon to house Hezbollah logistics bases. This raises the question of whether Israel has decided to continue operations and expand into this area, and whether Saturday’s actions will pave the way for an escalation or if the army was consolidating its defensive positions.”
