Iran 2023: Suppressing Protests, Regional Diplomacy, and Deepening Confrontation with the West

Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)
Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)
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Iran 2023: Suppressing Protests, Regional Diplomacy, and Deepening Confrontation with the West

Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)
Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)

In 2023, Iran initiated a campaign to suppress the most extensive surge of popular protests ever witnessed in the country, sparked by the tragic death of the young woman Mahsa Amini while in custody.

During the first weeks of the year, the Iranian government sought to quell protests and strikes, hastily conducting trials for protesters and carrying out death sentences for the convicted.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, however, later issued a pardon for prisoners, encompassing those detained during the protests, amidst skepticism from human rights organizations.

Before the dust of the protests could settle, non-lethal but toxic attacks on girls’ schools across the country instigated a state of panic and fear among Iranians. The responsible party remains unknown to date.

The repercussions of the protests persist both domestically and internationally.

Tehran has accused Western powers of waging a hybrid war against it.

Iranian human rights activist Narges Mohammadi was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, while the European Union bestowed the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought upon Amini.

The US and Europe have also imposed a series of sanctions on Iranian officials, particularly targeting leaders of the military apparatus and the Iranian judiciary.

Relations between the UK and Iran became strained after Tehran executed Ali Reza Akbari, the former assistant defense minister and a close associate of Ali Shamkhani, the former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, on charges of spying for the UK.

Just 72 hours after Akbari’s case was revealed, authorities announced his execution.

The execution of Akbari heightened tensions between Iran and Western powers.

Furthermore, prospects for reviving the nuclear agreement and returning to diplomatic channels stumbled as Russia expanded its use of Iranian drones in bombing Ukrainian cities.

Tehran insisted on its commitment to maintaining the diplomatic track and adhering to its conditions for returning to the nuclear agreement, but diplomatic efforts remained on the brink of collapse.

In February, William Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), stated that Washington does not believe Khamenei has decided to resume nuclear weapons programs.

During the same month, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) criticized Iran for concealing a change in the enrichment system at the underground Fordow facility.

Shortly afterward, IAEA inspectors announced the discovery of uranium particles enriched to 83.7%, significantly surpassing Iran's declared enrichment level of 60%.

This raised concerns about Tehran laying the groundwork for enriching uranium to 90%, the threshold required for nuclear weapons production.

Iran blamed the IAEA inspectors, while the agency stated that Tehran had informed them that the cause was “unintended fluctuations” during equipment changes.

As tensions between Tehran and Western powers regarding the nuclear agreement escalated, coupled with its collaboration with Russia, Tehran made moves to break its isolation by seeking to improve relations with its regional neighbors.

A pivotal moment in these efforts was the achievement of an agreement with Saudi Arabia, mediated by China, to open a new chapter in diplomatic relations.

This breakthrough followed a seven-year hiatus and was met with regional and international approval.

Ultimately, it led to the exchange of ambassadors, the reopening of diplomatic missions, and reciprocal visits between the foreign ministers of the two countries.



Little Hope in Gaza that Arrest Warrants will Cool Israeli Onslaught

Palestinians gather to buy bread from a bakery, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip November 22, 2024. REUTERS/Hussam Al-Masri Purchase Licensing Rights
Palestinians gather to buy bread from a bakery, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip November 22, 2024. REUTERS/Hussam Al-Masri Purchase Licensing Rights
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Little Hope in Gaza that Arrest Warrants will Cool Israeli Onslaught

Palestinians gather to buy bread from a bakery, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip November 22, 2024. REUTERS/Hussam Al-Masri Purchase Licensing Rights
Palestinians gather to buy bread from a bakery, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip November 22, 2024. REUTERS/Hussam Al-Masri Purchase Licensing Rights

Gazans saw little hope on Friday that International Criminal Court arrest warrants for Israeli leaders would slow down the onslaught on the Palestinian territory, where medics said at least 24 people were killed in fresh Israeli military strikes.

In Gaza City in the north, an Israeli strike on a house in Shejaia killed eight people, medics said. Three others were killed in a strike near a bakery and a fisherman was killed as he set out to sea. In the central and southern areas, 12 people were killed in three separate Israeli airstrikes.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces deepened their incursion and bombardment of the northern edge of the enclave, their main offensive since early last month. The military says it aims to prevent Hamas fighters from waging attacks and regrouping there; residents say they fear the aim is to permanently depopulate a strip of territory as a buffer zone, which Israel denies.

Residents in the three besieged towns on the northern edge - Jabalia, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun - said Israeli forces had blown up dozens of houses.

An Israeli strike hit the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahiya, one of three medical facilities barely operational in the area, injuring six medical staff, some critically, the Gaza health ministry said in a statement, Reuters reported.

"The strike also destroyed the hospital's main generator, and punctured the water tanks, leaving the hospital without oxygen or water, which threatens the lives of patients and staff inside the hospital," it added. It said 85 wounded people including children and women were inside, eight in the ICU.

Later on Friday, the Gaza health ministry said all hospital services across the enclave would stop within 48 hours unless fuel shipments are permitted, blaming restrictions which Israel says are designed to stop fuel being used by Hamas.

Gazans saw the ICC's decision to seek the arrest of Israeli leaders for suspected war crimes as international recognition of the enclave's plight. But those queuing for bread at a bakery in the southern city of Khan Younis were doubtful it would have any impact.

"The decision will not be implemented because America protects Israel, and it can veto anything. Israel will not be held accountable," said Saber Abu Ghali, as he waited for his turn in the crowd.

Saeed Abu Youssef, 75, said even if justice were to arrive, it would be decades late: "We have been hearing decisions for more than 76 years that have not been implemented and haven't done anything for us."

Since Hamas's October 7th attack on Israel, nearly 44,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, much of which has been laid to waste.

The court's prosecutors said there were reasonable grounds to believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant were criminally responsible for acts including murder, persecution, and starvation as a weapon of war, as part of a "widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Gaza".

The Hague-based court also ordered the arrest of the top Hamas commander Ibrahim Al-Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif. Israel says it has already killed him, which Hamas has not confirmed.

Israel says Hamas is to blame for all harm to Gaza's civilians, for operating among them, which Hamas denies.

Israeli politicians from across the political spectrum have denounced the ICC arrest warrants as biased and based on false evidence, and Israel says the court has no jurisdiction over the war. Hamas hailed the arrest warrants as a first step towards justice.

Efforts by Arab mediators Qatar and Egypt backed by the United States to conclude a ceasefire deal have stalled. Hamas wants a deal that ends the war, while Netanyahu has vowed the war can end only once Hamas is eradicated.