Jordan is often impacted by the developments in the region. On an average of once every ten years, the kingdom endures crises that impact its policies.
The millennium started with the second Palestinian intifada in the Israeli-occupied West Bank that borders Jordan. In the east, the US occupation of Iraq sparked constant security concerns in Amman.
Soon after, the Arab spring swept through Syria, sparking a crisis that has led to the emergence of terrorist groups that threaten Jordan’s northern borders. The groups may have different allegiances, but they appear to be united in undermining Jordan’s security.
Internally, Jordan’s economy is fragile. Poverty and unemployment levels are high and living conditions continue to deteriorate. Authorities struggle to meet basic needs in the health, education and housing sectors, leaving the tense calm on the streets always teetering on the edge of implosion.
The end of 2023 served Jordan with a new challenge: Israel’s war on Gaza and the ensuing humanitarian catastrophe. The conflict poses a real threat to Jordan’s interests and stability and may pave the way for Israel to outright oppose the two-state solution and prompt a new wave of displacement of the Palestinian people to neighboring countries.
Jordan attempted to tackle the war with a flurry of diplomatic activity to prevent the conflict from spreading to the West Bank.
Jordan took a firm official stance from the Israeli war. Amman abandoned its habitual moderate diplomacy in the early days of the conflict. However, observers criticized Foreign Minister Ayman al-Safadi for adopting such a firm stance instead of gradually raising the tone.
The believed that such a stern stance in the early days of the crisis effectively tosses out all of Jordan’s political cards, which is significant given that the war is still ongoing.
Other observers said Jordan’s stance may influence American and western positions and prompt them to exert greater efforts to rein in Israel.
The divergent views reveal divisions among the decision-makers in Jordan over how to deal with the war and its fallout. Some senior politicians believe that if Jordan toned down its rhetoric, the void will be filled by popular protests that are historically rooted to the Palestinians. The firm official stance against Israel has helped appease the street.
More traditional politicians have demanded a more measured approach to avoid dashing expectations in the future and allow Jordan more room for political maneuvering.
External threats
Throughout 2023, Jordan has also had to contend with the threat terrorist groups and drug smuggling gangs from Syria.
Amman is aware that these groups and gangs are loyal to and funded by Iran. It is also aware that they are also loyal to the Damascus regime that owns the drug factories that produce the illicit material which is worth billions of dollars.
Jordan waited patiently on Damascus to act against these illegal operations. With the help of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, it attempted to reach through to the regime. The talks focused on persuading Damascus to return to the Arab fold in return for political, military and security gains.
The regime did not respect its commitments even after Syria was reinstated as a member of the Arab League. President Bashar al-Assad even attended the Arab summit that was held in Jeddah on May 19.
In response to the disappointing regime stance, Jordan carried out over the summer two airstrikes in Syria, destroying drug factories and smuggler hideouts.
Damascus appears to have lost control over vast regions of southern Syria, which has allowed remnants of the ISIS group to lie in wait to carry out an attack against Jordan at the opportune moment.
In November, the Jordanian military launched an operation against the drug smugglers after they attempted to smuggle huge amounts of the illicit material into the kingdom.
The unrest revealed the extent of the plot against Jordan, especially with the revelation that some groups inside the kingdom were helping others beyond the border.
The common factor on Jordan’s eastern and northern borders are Iranian militias that are keen on undermining the kingdom’s security through any means necessary.
On its border with Iraq, the militias have set up camps under the pretext of “championing Palestine”, while in fact they are aimed at undermining Jordan’s stability.
