The international community is still seeking to come up with the groundwork to ease the tensions in southern Lebanon and kick off negotiations, or any form of action, that would avert a comprehensive war with Israel.
A French diplomatic source warned that the chances of such a war happening are “very high.”
Amos Hochstein, top aide to US President Joe Biden, stressed that Washington is seeking to keep the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon at the “lowest level”.
He underlined the importance of the return of residents of the South and of northern Israel to their homes.
A French diplomat, meanwhile, said Paris was still holding on to the possibility of achieving some form of breakthrough in de-escalating the tensions in the South and averting a war.
The official added that these efforts are not biased towards Israel, noting that French officials have lately been taking firm stances with the Israelis against settlers in the West Bank. They stressed the need to respect international law and human rights.
The diplomat acknowledged that at the beginning of the Gaza war, France was biased towards Israel given how horrific the attack on October 7 was and that 42 French nationals were killed that day.
The situation has since changed with France clearly making a shift in its stance.
Moreover, the diplomat said the situation in Lebanon was “very dangerous. The chances of a comprehensive war grow with every day that passes. So, we can’t just wait for the war in Gaza to end to restore calm on the Lebanese border.”
He added that the initiative made by France has not yet been presented to the mediators, explaining that current efforts are focused on consultations to secure the ground for launching negotiations.
Hochstein
Meanwhile, Hochstein told CNBC that the situation on the border between Lebanon and Israel has changed since October 7. “It was the responsibility of the United States to further support the Lebanese army and the economy in southern Lebanon, which would also require international support from Europe and the Gulf states.”
The US official met with Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the Munich Security Conference on Friday.
The officials discussed the ongoing tensions on the Lebanese southern border and the need for a lasting diplomatic solution that would help achieve permanent stability and return the displaced to their homes.
Mikati met with several officials in Munich on Saturday to underscore the need to end the war.
He met with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry. They stressed the need to end the Israeli war on Gaza and reach a ceasefire. Efforts could then be kicked off to reach a lasting solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Mikati also met with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, praising his support for the need to implement the two-state solution to the conflict.
Quintet searches options
Meanwhile, a French diplomatic source revealed that French presidential envoy to Lebanon Jean-Yves Le Drian is currently coordinating on the regional level to determine the direction that will be taken by the “Quintet for Lebanon”. The group includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United States, Egypt and France.
The source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the quintet was focusing on three main points, including holding a conference in Lebanon that includes all Lebanese parties to tackle the election of a new president.
The source made it a point to avoid describing the conference as dialogue, stressing the need for the meeting to be inclusive.
The second point focuses on whether the quintet will name a presidential candidate after holding consultations with the Lebanese parties.
The third point focuses on whether to impose sanctions on parties that are impeding the elections. Supporters of this point cite how the quintet has exhausted all options to convince the Lebanese leaderships of the need to reach a solution that would end the vacuum in the presidency that started in November 2022.
Bickering between political parties has led to the current deadlock.
The source said Le Drian was working on coming up with a unified position to deliver a message to the Lebanese parties that stresses the need for them to assume their responsibilities.
It says that the quintet and Lebanon’s friends cannot substitute for the Lebanese leaderships in choosing a president.
It questions how the Lebanese political class is completely relying on foreign intervention to end the presidential impasse and how it is convinced that this intervention alone will resolve their problems. They have completely surrendered to this idea and have not taken any serious steps towards ending the deadlock, opting instead to await what foreign powers will do.
The source added that Lebanon was not suffering from a constitutional crisis. The constitution is clear about the mechanism to elect a president. It is up to the Lebanese parties to assume their responsibilities towards this end.
Le Drian will deliver the message and make it clear to Lebanese officials that their country cannot remain without a president given pressing internal and external factors that obligate them to end the deadlock.
On the internal scene, Lebanon is suffering a stifling economic and financial crisis and needs its institutions to resume normal functioning.
On the external scene, major developments are taking place in the region and the Lebanese need to remain abreast of them. When the time comes for a regional conference, it would be unacceptable for Lebanon’s seat to remain vacant. If there won’t be anyone who will speak for Lebanon, then someone will speak on its behalf.
