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Federal Reserve System Study: OPEC Decisions Ensure Oil Markets’ Stability

A model of an oil rig with the OPEC logo in the background. (Reuters)
A model of an oil rig with the OPEC logo in the background. (Reuters)
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Federal Reserve System Study: OPEC Decisions Ensure Oil Markets’ Stability

A model of an oil rig with the OPEC logo in the background. (Reuters)
A model of an oil rig with the OPEC logo in the background. (Reuters)

A recent study of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has concluded that OPEC’s credible decisions and research ensure the oil markets’ stability.
“We find that OPEC communication reduces oil price volatility and prompts market participants to rebalance their positions,” according to the study published on the Banks’ website.
“Our analysis indicates that market participants assess OPEC communications as providing an important signal to the crude oil market,” the study added.
“We analyze the content of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) communications and whether it provides information to the crude oil market. To this end, we derive an empirical strategy which allows us to measure OPEC’s public signal and test whether market participants find it credible.”
“Using Structural Topic Models, we analyze OPEC narratives and identify several topics related to fundamental factors, such as demand, supply, and speculative activity in the crude oil market,” it added.
“OPEC’s objective is ‘[...] to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its Member Countries and ensure the stabilization of oil markets [...]’. A well-functioning crude oil market may have positive implications for the economy and inflation.”
OPEC on Tuesday stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and 2025 and raised its economic growth forecasts for both years saying there was further upside potential.

In a monthly report, it said world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.
A further boost to economic growth could give additional tailwind to oil demand. OPEC's 2024 demand growth forecast is already higher than that of other forecasters such as the International Energy Agency, although the wider OPEC+ alliance is still cutting output to support the market.
OPEC said a "positive trend" for economic growth was expected to extend into the first half of 2024 and raised its economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 0.1 percentage points.
OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance have implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market. A new cut for the first quarter took effect last month.

 

 

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Business

Oil Falls by 13% After Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz Open

Hafnia Lillesand, a crude oil and product tanker, sits at Viva Energy Australia's Gore Bay fuel terminal overlooking the city skyline in Sydney, Australia April 14, 2026. (Reuters)
Hafnia Lillesand, a crude oil and product tanker, sits at Viva Energy Australia's Gore Bay fuel terminal overlooking the city skyline in Sydney, Australia April 14, 2026. (Reuters)
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Oil Falls by 13% After Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz Open

Hafnia Lillesand, a crude oil and product tanker, sits at Viva Energy Australia's Gore Bay fuel terminal overlooking the city skyline in Sydney, Australia April 14, 2026. (Reuters)
Hafnia Lillesand, a crude oil and product tanker, sits at Viva Energy Australia's Gore Bay fuel terminal overlooking the city skyline in Sydney, Australia April 14, 2026. (Reuters)

Oil prices plunged by about 13% on Friday after Iran's foreign minister said passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remaining ceasefire period and US President Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to never close the strait again.

Brent crude futures fell $12.87, or 12.95%, to $86.52 a barrel by 10:50 a.m. EDT (1450 GMT), after falling to a session low of $86.09. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $13.50, or 14.26%, at $81.19 a barrel, after touching $80.56.

Both contracts were trading at ‌their lowest since ‌March 10, and set for their largest daily declines ‌since ⁠April 8.

Iranian Foreign ⁠Minister Abbas Araqchi said the Strait of Hormuz was open following the agreement of a ceasefire in Lebanon.

"Comments from Iran's foreign minister indicate a de-escalation as long as the ceasefire is in place, now we need to see if the number of tankers crossing the Strait increases substantially," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

PROGRESS IN NEGOTIATIONS

The US and Iran have made progress in the negotiations over a three-page memorandum of understanding to ⁠end the war, according to an Axios reporter on X.

Prices had ‌already fallen earlier in the session as ‌possible further talks between the United States and Iran over the weekend and a 10-day ceasefire ‌between Lebanon and Israel raised investors' hopes the war in the Middle East ‌could be nearing an end.

Addressing a sticking point in talks, Trump said Tehran had offered to not possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years.

"We're going to see what happens. But I think we're very close to making a deal with Iran," Trump told reporters ‌outside the White House on Thursday.

Trump also said on Friday that the United States has banned Israel from further bombing ⁠in Lebanon, using ⁠a harsher tone than usual with the longtime US ally.

Shortly after the announcement that the strait was open, a US official told Reuters that a military blockade of Iran involving more than 10,000 personnel remains in effect.

While the opening up of the strait was a step in the right direction, the European market would remain tight for a while, analyst Ole Hvalbye at SEB Research said, since it takes roughly 21 days for ships to move from the Gulf to Rotterdam, the main crude port in the region.

Traffic could be halted once again in the strait, if an agreement about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and lifting the US sanctions remains elusive, said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates.

Business

Saudi CEDA Reviews Vision 2030 Progress

Buildings are seen in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, December 18, 2017. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser 
Buildings are seen in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, December 18, 2017. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser 
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Saudi CEDA Reviews Vision 2030 Progress

Buildings are seen in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, December 18, 2017. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser 
Buildings are seen in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, December 18, 2017. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser 

Saudi Arabia’s Council of Economic and Development Affairs (CEDA) held a virtual meeting to consider a package of strategic reports outlining the Kingdom’s economic and development trajectory.

The council issued the 2025 annual report on Saudi Vision 2030, showing clear progress across its three pillars — a vibrant society, a thriving economy and an ambitious nation — while underscoring the resilience of the national economy, supported by prudent fiscal policies and solid logistics infrastructure.

The report highlighted qualitative advances during the Vision’s second phase, reflecting its flexibility and ability to adapt to changing conditions in line with its third phase. It emphasized efforts to build on gains achieved in the first two phases and accelerate implementation by sharpening priorities and advancing national programs and strategies.

Resilience amid global developments

CEDA also discussed the monthly report from the Ministry of Economy and Planning, which covered global economic developments and growth prospects in light of current regional events and their repercussions for both major and emerging economies.

The report examined the impact of geopolitical tensions on Gulf economies and supply chains, as well as their potential implications for Saudi Arabia’s economic and financial outlook. It pointed to the Kingdom’s “exceptional resilience,” supported by strong economic and fiscal policies and robust logistics infrastructure.

Public sector performance

The council reviewed a presentation by the National Center for Performance Measurement of Public Agencies (Adaa) on its 2025 annual performance report. The findings showed continued positive performance by government entities in meeting targets, reflecting stable delivery and efficient execution.

The report also outlined the center’s work in strengthening the measurement of national strategies and reviewing strategic documents to ensure that indicators and initiatives fully cover all objectives. It included results from the latest evaluation cycle of performance management practices across public entities.

CEDA also discussed a presentation by the National Center for Privatization (NCP), highlighting key results for the second half of 2025, including the performance of supervisory committees and progress on major projects. The presentation showed improved overall performance and an increase in the number of privatization projects during the period.

Grand Mosque services and infrastructure

The council discussed a presentation by the Royal Commission for Makkah City and Holy Sites on projects in the central area of the Grand Mosque in Makkah. The briefing addressed the use of advanced technologies to monitor and manage waste, measures to facilitate the movement of vehicles and goods into the central area, and steps to enhance safety procedures and intensify oversight of expansion projects to ensure the safety of worshippers.

It also outlined a three-year plan covering systems related to health, safety, security and the environment.

Governance and policy updates

Moreover, CEDA saw a report on the updated national framework for governance, risk, compliance and internal audit functions, including its pilot application across selected government entities, proposals for broader implementation and mechanisms to measure compliance.

The council also considered a number of procedural matters, including a draft national intellectual property policy.

It was briefed on the semiannual report of the ministerial committee on social support and subsidies, as well as updates from the committee on improving the balance of payments and advancing economic diversification.

Further briefings included a monthly report on progress in implementing the executive plan to host regional headquarters of international organizations, a quarterly report from the standing committee for price monitoring, and summaries of the latest consumer price index and wholesale price index reports, along with the underlying data.

Business

1st SKorean Tanker Transits Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu in Alternative Red Sea Route

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung delivers a eulogy during a memorial service to pay tribute to the victims of the sinking of the ferry Sewol off Jin Island on South Korea's southwest coast in Ansan, south of Seoul, South Korea, 16 April 2026. EPA/YONHAP
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung delivers a eulogy during a memorial service to pay tribute to the victims of the sinking of the ferry Sewol off Jin Island on South Korea's southwest coast in Ansan, south of Seoul, South Korea, 16 April 2026. EPA/YONHAP
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1st SKorean Tanker Transits Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu in Alternative Red Sea Route

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung delivers a eulogy during a memorial service to pay tribute to the victims of the sinking of the ferry Sewol off Jin Island on South Korea's southwest coast in Ansan, south of Seoul, South Korea, 16 April 2026. EPA/YONHAP
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung delivers a eulogy during a memorial service to pay tribute to the victims of the sinking of the ferry Sewol off Jin Island on South Korea's southwest coast in Ansan, south of Seoul, South Korea, 16 April 2026. EPA/YONHAP

A South Korean oil tanker has transited the Red Sea for the first time since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Seoul's oceans ministry said on Friday.

Import-dependent South Korea has taken steps to mitigate the risks to its energy supplies since US-Israeli attacks on Iran in late February prompted Tehran to shut off access to the strait, now under a US blockade.

Seoul has sought new sources of oil and said this month that it would send five Korean-flagged ships to the Saudi Arabian Red Sea port of Yanbu to establish alternative routes.

The ministry announced on Friday the "first case of crude oil being transported into the country via the Red Sea, a detour, since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz".

President Lee Jae Myung called it "a valuable achievement made by the relevant ministries moving as one team".

"I would like to express my gratitude to everyone who worked hard day and night despite difficult conditions, especially the sailors," he said on X.

Kang Hoon-sik, chief of staff to the president, said on Wednesday that South Korea had secured supplies of more than 270 million barrels of crude oil via routes unaffected by Hormuz crisis through the end of the year.

The figure is equivalent to more than three months of South Korea's oil needs based on last year's figures, Kang said.

The official recently returned from a trip to Kazakhstan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Qatar in a bid to secure alternative fuel sources.