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Türkiye Inflation Rises to 67%, Keeping Pressure on Cenbank

A full moon rises behind the Camlica mosque in Istanbul, Türkiye, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Emrah Gurel)
A full moon rises behind the Camlica mosque in Istanbul, Türkiye, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Emrah Gurel)
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Türkiye Inflation Rises to 67%, Keeping Pressure on Cenbank

A full moon rises behind the Camlica mosque in Istanbul, Türkiye, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Emrah Gurel)
A full moon rises behind the Camlica mosque in Istanbul, Türkiye, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Emrah Gurel)

Türkiye's annual inflation rate climbed to 67.07% in February, exceeding expectations and keeping up pressure for tight monetary policy amid strong rises in food, hotel and education prices, official data showed on Monday.
Shortly before the data, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek told local broadcaster BloombergHT that inflation would remain high in the coming months due to base effects and the delayed impact of rate hikes, but would fall in the next 12 months.
The central bank has hiked interest rates by 3,650 basis points since June, but has now paused its tightening cycle saying that the current 45% policy rate is sufficient to bring inflation down, Reuters said.
Yet some economists see a growing prospect of more tightening sometime after nationwide local elections on March 31, given the price pressure and
strong domestic demand.
"Core price pressures continue to run hot and if this continues, the possibility of a restart to the central bank's tightening cycle will only increase in the coming months," said Capital Economics senior emerging markets economist Liam Peach.
Month-on-month consumer price inflation (CPI) was 4.53%, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute, down from 6.70% in January but well above a Reuters poll forecast of 3.7%.
Annual inflation was expected to climb to 65.7% in February before falling to 42.7% by the end of 2024, the poll found.
In January, annual consumer price inflation was 64.86%.
"Inflation was high in January due to temporary effects. There could be some continuation of that in February," Simsek said. "However as of March, inflation will be back on trend. It will become in line with our disinflation path."
LIRA SLIDE
The lira has weakened 6% this year after a near-37% slide in 2023, further stoking import prices. It was slightly weaker at 31.4205 against the dollar after the data.
Though some analysts predict currency weakness after the elections - in which President Tayyip Erdogan's ruling party seeks to reclaim big cities from the opposition - Simsek said authorities want neither a depreciating nor very valuable lira.
Restaurants and hotels led the price rises in February, surging 94.5%, followed by a 91.8% rise in education prices. Heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic drinks prices jumped 71.1%.
Economists have said that February inflation was also driven by the lingering impact of this year's minimum wage hike on the services sector.
Last month, the central bank maintained its 36% year-end inflation target and vowed to keep policy tight for longer to bring inflation down to the forecasted path. The Reuters poll showed annual inflation falling only to 42.7% by year end.
The domestic producer price index was up 3.74% month-on-month in February for an annual rise of 47.29%, the data showed.

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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.

Business

Copper Falls, Set for Worst Week Since March on AI Rout

Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)
Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)
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Copper Falls, Set for Worst Week Since March on AI Rout

Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)
Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)

Copper dropped on Friday and was set for its biggest weekly drop in London since March, as a rout in technology stocks battered markets.

Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 1.3% at $13,663 a metric ton by 0700 GMT. That placed it on track to fall 3.44% in the week, Reuters said.

The most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.08% to 106,830 yuan ($16,018.17) a ton.

The weakness reflects worries over AI investment, ‌with copper increasingly ‌influenced by "sentiment towards data center expansion," said ‌Craig ⁠Lang, principal analyst ⁠at CRU.

Technology shares were battered after Democratic wins in the US midterms fueled concerns that new regulatory oversight could cap the AI buildout.

On the other hand, supply constraints cushioned copper's decline.

"I would be cautious about calling this a sustained correction, given ongoing mine supply challenges and exceptionally tight ⁠metal availability outside the US," Lang said.

Copper stocks ‌in SHFE-monitored warehouses <CU-STX-SGH> fell by ‌over 24% this week to just 33,848 tons — the lowest ‌in almost three years. The closely watched Yangshan copper ‌premium <SMM-CUYP-CN>, a gauge of appetite for imports into key consumer China, increased to $210 a ton on Thursday, matching its record high.

Smelters in the country are facing a double squeeze of negative treatment ‌charges and lower sulfuric acid prices.

Meanwhile, warehouse inventories outside the US have been drawn ⁠down as ⁠material was pulled into the country ahead of a potential tariff on imports of refined copper.

"These physical constraints should provide some support against weaker investor sentiment," Lang said.

Among LME metals, aluminium lost 0.54%, zinc lost 1.42%, lead lost 0.45%, nickel dipped 0.23% and tin gained 0.83%.

On the SHFE, aluminium nudged down only 0.04%, zinc lost 1.35%, lead was little changed, down only 0.03%, nickel rose 2.14% and tin dropped 3.45%.

SHFE inventories were down across the board this week, led by sharp drops in aluminium <AL-STX-SGH> and lead <PB-STX-SGH>.

Business

Emerging Economies Set to Match Advanced Nations’ Renewable Capacity Additions, IEA Says

Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)
Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)
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Emerging Economies Set to Match Advanced Nations’ Renewable Capacity Additions, IEA Says

Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)
Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)

Emerging ‌and developing economies outside China are expected to add as much new renewable energy capacity as advanced economies for the first time over the next five years, driven by the current energy crisis, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.

Gas and oil prices have soared this year as the US-Iran war disrupts traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and gas trade.

Global renewable energy ‌capacity is forecast ‌to increase by almost 4,800 gigawatts ‌between ⁠2026 and 2031, ⁠the IEA said in its annual outlook.

Emerging and developing economies are expected to add about 1,100 GW, roughly the same as advanced economies, with China adding around 2,550 GW, the agency said.

Capacity growth in Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East is ⁠expected to triple over the period, ‌led mainly by solar installations, ‌the IEA said.

China will remain the biggest contributor to ‌global renewable energy growth, although its share is ‌forecast to fall to 53% by 2031 from 60% in 2025.

India is emerging as the world's second-fastest deployer of renewables and is expected to more than double its contribution ‌to global growth by 2031 to nearly 8.5%.

Grid connection delays remain ⁠a major ⁠challenge, with projects awaiting connections worldwide rising 60% over the past year, equivalent to four times the wind and solar capacity connected to grids during the same period.

Grid constraints are expected to slow growth in advanced economies, with annual additions in Europe through 2031 forecast to remain broadly in line with 2025 levels.

Renewable energy is expected to meet 6% of global transport energy demand by 2031, while higher fuel-blending mandates prompted the IEA to raise its biofuels forecast by 40% from last year's report.