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UK Public Debt Rises to Highest Since 1961 Ahead of Election

Public sector net debt, excluding state-controlled banks, reached 2.742 trillion pounds ($3.47 trillion) or 99.8% of annual gross domestic product in May. (Reuters)
Public sector net debt, excluding state-controlled banks, reached 2.742 trillion pounds ($3.47 trillion) or 99.8% of annual gross domestic product in May. (Reuters)
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UK Public Debt Rises to Highest Since 1961 Ahead of Election

Public sector net debt, excluding state-controlled banks, reached 2.742 trillion pounds ($3.47 trillion) or 99.8% of annual gross domestic product in May. (Reuters)
Public sector net debt, excluding state-controlled banks, reached 2.742 trillion pounds ($3.47 trillion) or 99.8% of annual gross domestic product in May. (Reuters)

British public debt rose last month to its highest as a share of the economy since 1961, data showed on Friday, adding to the financial challenges the next government will face as soon as it comes to power after a general election in two weeks' time.

Public sector net debt, excluding state-controlled banks, reached 2.742 trillion pounds ($3.47 trillion) or 99.8% of annual gross domestic product in May, up from 96.1% a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said.

The increase came despite slightly lower-than-expected government borrowing in May, which stood at 15.0 billion pounds compared with economists' median forecast of 15.7 billion pounds in a Reuters poll.

Britain looks headed for a change of government following an election on July 4, as Keir Starmer's Labour Party is far ahead of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservatives in the polls.

Public debt soared in Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the public finances have also been hit by slow growth and a rise in the Bank of England's interest rates to a 16-year high.

Most other Western countries saw big increases in debt over the same period, and British debt levels are below those in the United States, France and Italy.

Borrowing in Britain totaled 33.5 billion pounds in the first two months of the financial year, 0.4 billion more than the same period in 2023, but 1.5 billion pounds less than government budget forecasts had predicted in March.

Consultants at Capital Economics said these lower-than-expected borrowing numbers reflected less public investment, and would offer scant comfort to Britain's next finance minister.

"They do little to reduce the scale of the fiscal challenge that awaits them, in part because of the upward pressure on the debt interest bill from higher interest rates," said Alex Kerr, assistant economist at Capital Economics.

Labour and the Conservatives intend to stick with existing budget rules which require official forecasts - last updated in March - to show that debt as a share of GDP is falling in the fifth year of the forecast.

Higher interest rates than were forecast in March's budget meant Britain's next chancellor now had just 8.5 billion pounds of leeway to meet these rules, down from the historically low 8.9 billion in March, Kerr said.

Both Labour and the Conservatives have pledged not to raise the rate of income tax, value-added tax or other major levies, but government budget forecasts in March showed tax as a share of GDP was on track to reach its highest since 1948.

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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.

Business

Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.

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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.