Crude Plunges, Stocks Rally as Trump Says War 'Pretty Much' Complete

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
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Crude Plunges, Stocks Rally as Trump Says War 'Pretty Much' Complete

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Oil prices tanked and equities rallied Tuesday following a wild day of swings that came after Donald Trump said the US-Israel war on Iran would be ending earlier than thought.

As the crisis in the crude-rich Middle East continued into a second week, with seemingly little sign of a conclusion on the horizon, the US president said that the campaign was far ahead of his initial timeline of around a month, AFP said.

"I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force," Trump told CBS News by phone.

"If you look, they have nothing left. There's nothing left in a military sense," he added.

Trump told the US broadcaster that the United States was "very far" ahead of his initially stated war time frame of four or five weeks.

He later told a news conference in Florida that "it's going to be ended soon, and if it starts up again they'll be hit even harder".

When asked if he thought the war could end in days or weeks, he replied: "I think soon. Very soon."

The US leader also threatened an attack of "incalculable" size if Tehran blocks oil supplies coming through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global supplies pass.

His remarks come just days after he issued a statement saying Iran's "unconditional surrender" was the only acceptable outcome for ending the war, which sent shivers through markets fearing an elongated war.

Still, Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded by saying that they, not the Americans, would "determine the end of the war".

Investors jumped on the comments, sending crude prices plunging around 10 percent Tuesday.

That came a day after extreme swings that saw the commodity rocket 30 percent to a peak above $119 a barrel before plunging to as low as $84.

The recovery had already begun earlier Monday after it emerged that finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrialized nations would discuss tapping stockpiles to ease supply constraints.

Trump also said he would waive some Ukraine war-linked sanctions on Russian oil sales to India, with White House officials reassuring G7 partners that the move would only be temporary.

And Asian stock markets rallied, with Seoul up more than six percent and Tokyo gaining more than three percent. There were also healthy advances in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta.

That came after all three main indexes on Wall Street ended sharply higher, having reversed early heavy selling.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts focused Monday on the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked to nearly all oil tankers.

French President Emmanuel Macron said France was working with allies on a "purely defensive" mission to reopen the waterway.

About 10 vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz have come under attack since Iran blocked the strait in retaliation for the US-Israeli strikes, shipping experts say.

Global shipping giant MSC announced it was formally halting some export shipments from the Gulf, while Bahrain's state-owned energy company Bapco joined counterparts in Qatar and Kuwait in declaring "force majeure" -- a warning that events beyond its control may lead it to miss export targets.

The Saudi defense ministry said Monday it had thwarted a drone attack targeting an oil field in the kingdom's east, near the Emirati border.

"It has been an incredibly wild ride for traders and investors to navigate the price action put to them over the past 24 hours, with breathtaking reversals taking place across many parts of the financial markets," Chris Weston, an analyst at Pepperstone.

"The pressure valve has clearly been released for now. However, volatility across energy markets remains exceptionally elevated.

"While the most extreme stress has eased, markets are still pricing a significant degree of uncertainty and risk.

"The geopolitical backdrop remains fluid, and traders should expect volatility to remain a defining feature of the trading environment in the days ahead."



IMF Says World Is Drifting Toward More Adverse Growth Scenario as Energy Disruptions Continue

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)
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IMF Says World Is Drifting Toward More Adverse Growth Scenario as Energy Disruptions Continue

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)

The world may be already drifting towards the International Monetary Fund's "adverse scenario" forecast of weaker 2.5% global growth in 2026 even as it released ‌on Tuesday ‌a more benign ‌reference ⁠forecast of 3.1% growth, ⁠IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

Gourinchas told a news conference that the reference forecast assumes that the conflict is ⁠resolved quickly and that energy ‌prices ‌normalize in the second ‌half of 2026, but acknowledged ‌that the war's developments are fluid and changing daily. He said the reference forecast ‌was "not quite yet" irrelevant.

"I would say that we ⁠are ⁠somewhere in between the reference scenario and the adverse scenario," Gourinchas said.

"And of course, every day that passes and every day that we have more disruption in energy, we are drifting closer towards the adverse scenario."


Iraq Says Has ‘Understandings’ to Bypass Hormuz Blockade

A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)
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Iraq Says Has ‘Understandings’ to Bypass Hormuz Blockade

A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)

Baghdad's oil ministry said Tuesday it has "understandings" with the United States and Iran to reduce the impact of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Iraqi oil exports.

The ministry did not elaborate or say when these reported understandings were reached.

But Iran announced earlier this month -- before the fragile ceasefire was reached last Wednesday with the United States -- that it would allow Iraqi shipping to transit the key waterway.

Iraqi oil ministry spokesperson Saheb Bazoun told the Iraqi News Agency (INA) "there are understandings with the American and Iranian sides to circumvent the blockade imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, and with all parties to guarantee exports".

A founding member of the OPEC oil cartel, Iraq normally exports the majority of its crude through the strait, but like other exporters in the oil-rich region, it has been left scrambling for alternative routes.

Bazoun told INA that Iraq was continuing to use secondary export routes, including a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan and via Syria's Baniyas port.

Authorities announced earlier this month Iraq has begun exporting crude using tanker trucks through Syria, after resuming oil exports of 250,000 barrels per day through Ceyhan.

The Middle East war has wrought havoc on energy markets, especially after Iran tightened the screws on the Strait of Hormuz -- through which roughly a fifth of global oil and gas passes -- sharply slowing maritime traffic, and reportedly charging transit fees.

Despite the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, and after a failed attempt to reach an agreement, Washington imposed a blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, sending tremors through global energy markets.

Oil exports account for some 90 percent of Iraq's budget revenues, which plummeted more than 70 percent in March compared with February.


Saudi Arabia Boosts Water Efficiency with Over $26.7 Billion in Investments Since 2018

Shuaibah Desalination Plant (Saudi Water Authority)
Shuaibah Desalination Plant (Saudi Water Authority)
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Saudi Arabia Boosts Water Efficiency with Over $26.7 Billion in Investments Since 2018

Shuaibah Desalination Plant (Saudi Water Authority)
Shuaibah Desalination Plant (Saudi Water Authority)

Saudi Arabia has invested about SAR100 billion ($26.7 billion) in its water sector since 2018, as part of its National Water Strategy to improve efficiency and sustainability while expanding private sector participation in line with Vision 2030.

Deputy Minister for Water at the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture Abdulaziz Al-Shaibani told Asharq Al-Awsat that increased public-private partnerships are driving a shift toward a more efficient operating model and easing pressure on the state budget.

He said private sector involvement has transferred capital costs for major projects, including desalination plants, transmission networks, storage facilities and wastewater treatment, while boosting value across the supply chain through water reuse and reducing reliance on non-renewable resources.

Lower operating costs have also strengthened the sector’s appeal to investors. Seawater desalination using reverse osmosis now costs about SAR0.74 per cubic meter, while groundwater desalination costs around SAR0.55, offering competitive returns for local and international investors.

Local content in privatization projects has reached about 70 percent, while Saudis account for 90 percent of operational jobs, highlighting the sector’s contribution to economic growth and employment.

Al-Shaibani said investment in research and development has helped reduce production costs and localize key technologies, including reverse osmosis membrane manufacturing, valued at SAR 1.14 billion ($304 million). This supports the development of domestic supply chains and increases economic value added.

According to data from the Saudi Water Partnership Company (SWPC), 51 privatization projects have been launched with total investments of about SAR56 billion ($14.9 billion), including operational projects and others under development or tender.

Private sector production capacity is expected to reach 2.6 million cubic meters per day by 2030 and rise to 8.18 million cubic meters per day by 2032. Water transmission capacity between cities is projected to reach 2.43 million cubic meters per day by 2029, while strategic storage capacity is expected to reach just over 7 million cubic meters.

Major projects include the Juranah Independent Strategic Water Reservoir in Makkah province, with a capacity of 2.5 million cubic meters, the Rayis-Rabigh Independent Water Transmission Project, and the Rabigh 3 Independent Water Plant, all developed under long-term contracts to ensure sustainability.

The Al-Khafji solar-powered desalination plant, one of the world’s leading projects of its kind, has reduced desalination costs by about 40 percent, supporting more efficient and sustainable production.