Crude Plunges, Stocks Rally as Trump Says War 'Pretty Much' Complete

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
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Crude Plunges, Stocks Rally as Trump Says War 'Pretty Much' Complete

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Oil prices tanked and equities rallied Tuesday following a wild day of swings that came after Donald Trump said the US-Israel war on Iran would be ending earlier than thought.

As the crisis in the crude-rich Middle East continued into a second week, with seemingly little sign of a conclusion on the horizon, the US president said that the campaign was far ahead of his initial timeline of around a month, AFP said.

"I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force," Trump told CBS News by phone.

"If you look, they have nothing left. There's nothing left in a military sense," he added.

Trump told the US broadcaster that the United States was "very far" ahead of his initially stated war time frame of four or five weeks.

He later told a news conference in Florida that "it's going to be ended soon, and if it starts up again they'll be hit even harder".

When asked if he thought the war could end in days or weeks, he replied: "I think soon. Very soon."

The US leader also threatened an attack of "incalculable" size if Tehran blocks oil supplies coming through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global supplies pass.

His remarks come just days after he issued a statement saying Iran's "unconditional surrender" was the only acceptable outcome for ending the war, which sent shivers through markets fearing an elongated war.

Still, Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded by saying that they, not the Americans, would "determine the end of the war".

Investors jumped on the comments, sending crude prices plunging around 10 percent Tuesday.

That came a day after extreme swings that saw the commodity rocket 30 percent to a peak above $119 a barrel before plunging to as low as $84.

The recovery had already begun earlier Monday after it emerged that finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrialized nations would discuss tapping stockpiles to ease supply constraints.

Trump also said he would waive some Ukraine war-linked sanctions on Russian oil sales to India, with White House officials reassuring G7 partners that the move would only be temporary.

And Asian stock markets rallied, with Seoul up more than six percent and Tokyo gaining more than three percent. There were also healthy advances in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta.

That came after all three main indexes on Wall Street ended sharply higher, having reversed early heavy selling.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts focused Monday on the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked to nearly all oil tankers.

French President Emmanuel Macron said France was working with allies on a "purely defensive" mission to reopen the waterway.

About 10 vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz have come under attack since Iran blocked the strait in retaliation for the US-Israeli strikes, shipping experts say.

Global shipping giant MSC announced it was formally halting some export shipments from the Gulf, while Bahrain's state-owned energy company Bapco joined counterparts in Qatar and Kuwait in declaring "force majeure" -- a warning that events beyond its control may lead it to miss export targets.

The Saudi defense ministry said Monday it had thwarted a drone attack targeting an oil field in the kingdom's east, near the Emirati border.

"It has been an incredibly wild ride for traders and investors to navigate the price action put to them over the past 24 hours, with breathtaking reversals taking place across many parts of the financial markets," Chris Weston, an analyst at Pepperstone.

"The pressure valve has clearly been released for now. However, volatility across energy markets remains exceptionally elevated.

"While the most extreme stress has eased, markets are still pricing a significant degree of uncertainty and risk.

"The geopolitical backdrop remains fluid, and traders should expect volatility to remain a defining feature of the trading environment in the days ahead."



Egypt Says Close to Issuing $500 Million Japan Samurai Bond

A minibus moves along a main road underneath new Cairo Monorail track as a train moves above in the Fifth Settlement, a neighborhood of the New Cairo suburb of Cairo, on May 22, 2026. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP)
A minibus moves along a main road underneath new Cairo Monorail track as a train moves above in the Fifth Settlement, a neighborhood of the New Cairo suburb of Cairo, on May 22, 2026. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP)
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Egypt Says Close to Issuing $500 Million Japan Samurai Bond

A minibus moves along a main road underneath new Cairo Monorail track as a train moves above in the Fifth Settlement, a neighborhood of the New Cairo suburb of Cairo, on May 22, 2026. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP)
A minibus moves along a main road underneath new Cairo Monorail track as a train moves above in the Fifth Settlement, a neighborhood of the New Cairo suburb of Cairo, on May 22, 2026. (Photo by Khaled DESOUKI / AFP)

Egypt is finalizing plans for its first yen-denominated bond sale in three years, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told Reuters on a trip to Japan on Thursday.

The African Development Bank said in December it would partially guarantee Cairo's planned $500 million-equivalent Samurai bonds on the Japanese markets this year.

"We are completing the final ⁠steps," Abdelatty said ⁠on the sidelines of an event in Tokyo, adding that he had been promoting the sale and other investment opportunities while in Japan.

"We had extensive discussions ⁠with our Japanese friends on monetary, fiscal, financial support, especially with regard to budget support and samurai bonds as well."

Egypt's economy has been boosted in recent years by major real estate investments and an $8 billion IMF loan, though the Iran war is piling pressure ⁠on ⁠its finances.

The bond sale would be Egypt's third in the currency, following issuances in 2022 and 2023.

"It will be very important, despite the fact that we've been hit hard with implications of the (Iran) war," Abdelatty said.


Oil Falls as Lebanon and Israel Agree on a Ceasefire

FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows an offshore oil platform in Guanabara Bay in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, March 18, 2026.  REUTERS/Pilar Olivares/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows an offshore oil platform in Guanabara Bay in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, March 18, 2026. REUTERS/Pilar Olivares/File Photo
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Oil Falls as Lebanon and Israel Agree on a Ceasefire

FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows an offshore oil platform in Guanabara Bay in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, March 18, 2026.  REUTERS/Pilar Olivares/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows an offshore oil platform in Guanabara Bay in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, March 18, 2026. REUTERS/Pilar Olivares/File Photo

Oil prices fell on Thursday as a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon boosted hopes for a broader agreement to end the US-Israeli war with Iran that could lead to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent futures were down 87 cents, or 0.89%, at $96.92 a barrel by 0458 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 78 cents, or 0.81%, to $95.24, paring gains from earlier in the week, said Reuters.

Both Brent and WTI rose about 2% on Wednesday after renewed Middle East hostilities including Iranian attacks on Kuwait ‌and US military strikes ‌near the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel and Lebanon ‌said ⁠late on Wednesday ⁠they had agreed to implement a ceasefire, raising hopes for a deal between Washington and Tehran, which has conditioned any agreement in part on an end to fighting between Israel and Lebanon.

US President Donald Trump suggested on Wednesday that there could be progress in negotiations with Iran as soon as this weekend.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday said Tehran's ⁠contacts with Washington have not been cut ‌off, but no progress has been made ‌in the negotiations, adding both sides were studying the texts that were exchanged.

In ‌the US, the Republican-led House approved a resolution on Wednesday to ‌block Trump from continuing the war against Iran. To take effect, the resolution would need Senate approval and two-thirds majorities in both chambers to override an almost certain Trump veto.

Meanwhile, US crude stockpiles fell by 8 million barrels to ‌433.7 million barrels in the week ended May 29, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. ⁠That was a ⁠much bigger drop than the 4-million-barrel draw analysts had expected in a Reuters poll.

The International Energy Agency warned on Tuesday that global oil inventories could hit critical levels ahead of peak summer demand if stock draws continue at their current pace, despite Chinese crude imports falling by 6 million barrels a day in May compared to March.

“Inventories have provided a cushion for the oil market. However, even if we see an imminent restart of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the recovery will be slow and gradual,” a note from ING said.

“This suggests inventories are likely to continue to tighten into the third quarter, leaving upside risk to prices.”


IMF Praises Saudi Economy’s Resilience

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
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IMF Praises Saudi Economy’s Resilience

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) affirmed that the Saudi economy has demonstrated high resilience in the face of regional geopolitical tensions that have obstructed navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Fund praised the Kingdom's ability to contain the fallout from the navigation disruption through a swift logistical response, which involved redirecting oil shipments towards the East-West pipeline and Red Sea ports, leveraging the legacy of its Vision 2030 structural reforms.

“The Saudi economy is demonstrating agility and resilience, supported by robust and diversified infrastructure and the authorities’ concerted efforts to redirect shipments and ease logistical bottlenecks,” mission head Azim Sadikov said on Wednesday in the IMF's latest Article IV mission report following a visit to the Kingdom from April 28 to May 13.

“A prompt rerouting of oil through the East-West pipeline and Red Sea ports, combined with Aramco’s overseas inventories, has helped limit the drop in oil deliveries," it said.

"Saudi Arabia's strong fundamentals—low government debt, ample reserves, and a large sovereign wealth fund—provide important buffers,” the report added.

“Assuming maritime shipments through the Strait of Hormuz normalize in the coming months, a recovery could take hold, with growth this year notably lower but holding up at about 2 percent. Non-oil activity would be supported by domestic demand, underpinned by stable public employment, government spending, and the steady execution of private and public capital projects. Average inflation is projected to increase to about 2.3 percent as higher shipping and insurance costs add upward pressure on prices. Higher oil prices are expected to offset volume losses, generating a windfall that would reduce the current account and fiscal deficits in 2026.”

In its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth at 3.1% for 2026, 1.4 percentage points lower than a January estimate. It had said that the Kingdom was expected to be less severely affected by the war.

In the Outlook, the IMF also upgraded Saudi Arabia's 2027 GDP growth forecast to 4.5%, a 0.9% increase from previous projections. This upward revision reflected anticipated normalizations in energy output and logistics.

In Wednesday’s report, the IMF said given the Saudi economy’s resilience, “the mission considers that a modest reduction in the non-oil primary deficit in 2026 remains appropriate, with spending reprioritization as the first line of action to accommodate any fiscal response to the conflict.”

The report lauded Saudi Arabia's strong fundamentals—low government debt, ample reserves, and a large sovereign wealth fund— that provide important buffers.

It said that should the shock prove more prolonged, Saudi Arabia has the space to loosen the fiscal stance to cushion the economy, with support to affected businesses and households that should be temporary, targeted, and transparent.

As the economy normalizes, an ambitious medium-term fiscal consolidation anchored on non-oil revenue mobilization and spending rationalization is needed, it said.

On the banking sector, the IMF said: “The peg to the US dollar provides a credible monetary policy anchor and helps underpin financial stability, particularly in the current environment of heightened uncertainty.”

“The banking sector is well-positioned to weather the shock, supported by strong capital and liquidity buffers,” it added.

The mission welcomed the efforts of the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) to step up the monitoring of liquidity, credit conditions, and asset quality. It also supported “SAMA's decision to proceed with the implementation of the 100 basis points countercyclical capital buffer, its proactive approach to containing risks from FX borrowing, and continued progress in strengthening its resolution and emergency liquidity assistance frameworks.”

The report added: “Ten years since its launch, Vision 2030 reforms have helped strengthen institutions and improve policymaking, boosting economic performance and reducing dependence on oil.”

“Sustaining the reform momentum to remove remaining impediments to diversification and to expand the role of the private sector will be key to maintaining strong growth prospects for the medium term,” it said.

In this regard, the IMF lauded PIF's recalibrated 2026–30 strategy, with its shift toward more selective capital allocation and greater private-sector crowding-in.

The report called for “improving the business environment, deepening capital markets, supporting small and medium enterprises, aligning education with labor market needs, strengthening governance, and scaling AI adoption while mitigating associated risks.”