Crude Plunges, Stocks Rally as Trump Says War 'Pretty Much' Complete

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
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Crude Plunges, Stocks Rally as Trump Says War 'Pretty Much' Complete

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Oil prices tanked and equities rallied Tuesday following a wild day of swings that came after Donald Trump said the US-Israel war on Iran would be ending earlier than thought.

As the crisis in the crude-rich Middle East continued into a second week, with seemingly little sign of a conclusion on the horizon, the US president said that the campaign was far ahead of his initial timeline of around a month, AFP said.

"I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force," Trump told CBS News by phone.

"If you look, they have nothing left. There's nothing left in a military sense," he added.

Trump told the US broadcaster that the United States was "very far" ahead of his initially stated war time frame of four or five weeks.

He later told a news conference in Florida that "it's going to be ended soon, and if it starts up again they'll be hit even harder".

When asked if he thought the war could end in days or weeks, he replied: "I think soon. Very soon."

The US leader also threatened an attack of "incalculable" size if Tehran blocks oil supplies coming through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global supplies pass.

His remarks come just days after he issued a statement saying Iran's "unconditional surrender" was the only acceptable outcome for ending the war, which sent shivers through markets fearing an elongated war.

Still, Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded by saying that they, not the Americans, would "determine the end of the war".

Investors jumped on the comments, sending crude prices plunging around 10 percent Tuesday.

That came a day after extreme swings that saw the commodity rocket 30 percent to a peak above $119 a barrel before plunging to as low as $84.

The recovery had already begun earlier Monday after it emerged that finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrialized nations would discuss tapping stockpiles to ease supply constraints.

Trump also said he would waive some Ukraine war-linked sanctions on Russian oil sales to India, with White House officials reassuring G7 partners that the move would only be temporary.

And Asian stock markets rallied, with Seoul up more than six percent and Tokyo gaining more than three percent. There were also healthy advances in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta.

That came after all three main indexes on Wall Street ended sharply higher, having reversed early heavy selling.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts focused Monday on the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked to nearly all oil tankers.

French President Emmanuel Macron said France was working with allies on a "purely defensive" mission to reopen the waterway.

About 10 vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz have come under attack since Iran blocked the strait in retaliation for the US-Israeli strikes, shipping experts say.

Global shipping giant MSC announced it was formally halting some export shipments from the Gulf, while Bahrain's state-owned energy company Bapco joined counterparts in Qatar and Kuwait in declaring "force majeure" -- a warning that events beyond its control may lead it to miss export targets.

The Saudi defense ministry said Monday it had thwarted a drone attack targeting an oil field in the kingdom's east, near the Emirati border.

"It has been an incredibly wild ride for traders and investors to navigate the price action put to them over the past 24 hours, with breathtaking reversals taking place across many parts of the financial markets," Chris Weston, an analyst at Pepperstone.

"The pressure valve has clearly been released for now. However, volatility across energy markets remains exceptionally elevated.

"While the most extreme stress has eased, markets are still pricing a significant degree of uncertainty and risk.

"The geopolitical backdrop remains fluid, and traders should expect volatility to remain a defining feature of the trading environment in the days ahead."



Hormuz Under Insurance Pressure as ‘War Premiums’ Violate Int’l Laws

A vessel at the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province, April 12, 2026. (Reuters)
A vessel at the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province, April 12, 2026. (Reuters)
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Hormuz Under Insurance Pressure as ‘War Premiums’ Violate Int’l Laws

A vessel at the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province, April 12, 2026. (Reuters)
A vessel at the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province, April 12, 2026. (Reuters)

As military tensions flare in the Strait of Hormuz, another battle is unfolding behind the scenes, one no less dangerous. Insurance companies have emerged as key players shaping the fate of global shipping.

With premiums surging to unprecedented levels, experts told Asharq Al-Awsat the world is approaching a “moment of truth.”

The closure of the waterway threatens not only oil flows, but also bread supplies in the world’s poorest countries, while putting the international legal framework that protects trade at risk of collapse.

War risk insurance premiums in the Strait have jumped to between 1% and 7.5% of vessel value, up from less than 1% before attacks escalated. In practical terms, insurance for a single voyage of a large oil tanker worth $100 million can now range between $2 million and $9 million, compared with about $250,000 before tensions intensified.

Rabih El-Amine, head of the Lebanese Executives Council, said the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a narrow maritime passage, about 21 miles wide, but “it has become the single lung through which the global economy breathes.”

“When that lung is threatened, it is not only oil that suffocates, but food, medicine, and hope as well,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He added that the situation is alarming, not just on a theoretical level, but because its consequences are already affecting companies and markets, with marine insurance premiums rising by 30% to 120% in a matter of months.

When major insurers withdraw entirely from covering vessels forced to transit the Strait, it signals not only higher costs, but a breakdown in the entire system of commercial trust, he warned.

Numbers tell the story

El-Amine said more than 230 loaded oil tankers are currently waiting for clearance to pass through the Strait and are unable to depart.

The International Energy Agency has described the situation as the largest disruption to oil supply in the global market's history. Natural gas prices in Europe have surged by more than 70%, while jet fuel prices have climbed 95%, forcing some European airports to ration fuel.

Some estimates suggest oil could approach $200 per barrel if the closure persists.

Yet El-Amine warned that wheat and fertilizers are an even greater concern. The Gulf region is not only a global energy hub, but also a key supplier for global agriculture, with 35% of global urea exports passing through the Strait.

India imports 70% of its needs from the region. Urea prices have jumped 26% to $585 per ton, a level not seen in years.

“When fertilizer prices rise, bread prices follow,” he said. “The heaviest burden is not borne by European or American farmers, but by poor families in Africa and South Asia, where an estimated 45 million people are now on the brink of acute food insecurity.”

He added that geopolitical crises carry costs that are unevenly distributed, as negotiators debate strategic interests behind closed doors while poorer nations face soaring commodity prices.

He stressed the need for insurers, companies, and governments to shift from crisis response to disaster prevention, calling for a flexible regional insurance system, emergency financing mechanisms, and dialogue channels that prioritize food and energy security over other considerations.

Testing the legitimacy of the international system

Saeed Salam, director of the Vision Center for Strategic Studies, said the current crisis in the strait has evolved beyond a military confrontation into a test of the legitimacy of the international system.

“The precise calculations of global insurance companies have become the real driver of trade flows, outweighing international laws and agreements,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

According to Salam, the escalation that began in late February, followed by Iran’s closure of the strait and attacks on 19 to 20 commercial vessels that did not comply with its transit conditions, has created a state of comprehensive “economic shutdown.”

Insurance costs have risen sharply due to unprecedented risks, making navigation through Hormuz commercially unviable.

Tankers have been forced to seek longer, more expensive alternative routes, while major powers and international actors attempt to secure supply flows through exceptional interventions that have so far failed to restore confidence.

Salam said this reality undermines the maritime legal system established in 1982, exposing a wide gap between the legal right of transit passage and the threats imposed by Tehran, which he said is attempting to reshape the rules of engagement in the region.

He added that the involvement of major powers in providing government guarantees to vessels further complicates the situation, giving commercial shipping a direct political dimension and turning ships into targets in conflicts they have no stake in.

This, he warned, could fragment the global maritime system into competing spheres of influence governed by power and coercion rather than freedom of trade.

At the same time, competition among global powers has extended into the insurance and technological domains.

While Western systems attempt to manage risk at high cost, China has begun offering parallel guarantees for vessels linked to it, potentially dividing the world into rival insurance blocs aligned with geopolitical agendas.

Salam pointed to cyber threats as the most dangerous emerging front. Maritime mines are no longer the only concern, he said, as digital systems that manage ports and control vessels have become vulnerable to disruptions that can halt global supply chains within moments, risks not covered by traditional insurance contracts.

Salam said the failure of the Islamabad talks signals a prolonged period of uncertainty. Companies will need to move beyond financial hedging and adopt hybrid strategies that combine insurance, cybersecurity, and strategic alliances to navigate these risks.

“The era of safe, internationally guaranteed navigation is over,” he said. “The world is entering a new reality where threat itself becomes the governing rule in the Strait.”

He added that companies that survive will be those with high flexibility and the ability to anticipate risks, while passive waiting is a gamble that could push the global system into inevitable stagflation, at a time when securing trade routes has become the only benchmark for sustaining production and growth.


IMF Says World Is Drifting Toward More Adverse Growth Scenario as Energy Disruptions Continue

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)
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IMF Says World Is Drifting Toward More Adverse Growth Scenario as Energy Disruptions Continue

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)

The world may be already drifting towards the International Monetary Fund's "adverse scenario" forecast of weaker 2.5% global growth in 2026 even as it released ‌on Tuesday ‌a more benign ‌reference ⁠forecast of 3.1% growth, ⁠IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

Gourinchas told a news conference that the reference forecast assumes that the conflict is ⁠resolved quickly and that energy ‌prices ‌normalize in the second ‌half of 2026, but acknowledged ‌that the war's developments are fluid and changing daily. He said the reference forecast ‌was "not quite yet" irrelevant.

"I would say that we ⁠are ⁠somewhere in between the reference scenario and the adverse scenario," Gourinchas said.

"And of course, every day that passes and every day that we have more disruption in energy, we are drifting closer towards the adverse scenario."


Iraq Says Has ‘Understandings’ to Bypass Hormuz Blockade

A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)
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Iraq Says Has ‘Understandings’ to Bypass Hormuz Blockade

A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)

Baghdad's oil ministry said Tuesday it has "understandings" with the United States and Iran to reduce the impact of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Iraqi oil exports.

The ministry did not elaborate or say when these reported understandings were reached.

But Iran announced earlier this month -- before the fragile ceasefire was reached last Wednesday with the United States -- that it would allow Iraqi shipping to transit the key waterway.

Iraqi oil ministry spokesperson Saheb Bazoun told the Iraqi News Agency (INA) "there are understandings with the American and Iranian sides to circumvent the blockade imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, and with all parties to guarantee exports".

A founding member of the OPEC oil cartel, Iraq normally exports the majority of its crude through the strait, but like other exporters in the oil-rich region, it has been left scrambling for alternative routes.

Bazoun told INA that Iraq was continuing to use secondary export routes, including a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan and via Syria's Baniyas port.

Authorities announced earlier this month Iraq has begun exporting crude using tanker trucks through Syria, after resuming oil exports of 250,000 barrels per day through Ceyhan.

The Middle East war has wrought havoc on energy markets, especially after Iran tightened the screws on the Strait of Hormuz -- through which roughly a fifth of global oil and gas passes -- sharply slowing maritime traffic, and reportedly charging transit fees.

Despite the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, and after a failed attempt to reach an agreement, Washington imposed a blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, sending tremors through global energy markets.

Oil exports account for some 90 percent of Iraq's budget revenues, which plummeted more than 70 percent in March compared with February.