Crude Plunges, Stocks Rally as Trump Says War 'Pretty Much' Complete

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
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Crude Plunges, Stocks Rally as Trump Says War 'Pretty Much' Complete

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 02: A sign displays prices for gasoline at a station on March 02, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Oil prices tanked and equities rallied Tuesday following a wild day of swings that came after Donald Trump said the US-Israel war on Iran would be ending earlier than thought.

As the crisis in the crude-rich Middle East continued into a second week, with seemingly little sign of a conclusion on the horizon, the US president said that the campaign was far ahead of his initial timeline of around a month, AFP said.

"I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force," Trump told CBS News by phone.

"If you look, they have nothing left. There's nothing left in a military sense," he added.

Trump told the US broadcaster that the United States was "very far" ahead of his initially stated war time frame of four or five weeks.

He later told a news conference in Florida that "it's going to be ended soon, and if it starts up again they'll be hit even harder".

When asked if he thought the war could end in days or weeks, he replied: "I think soon. Very soon."

The US leader also threatened an attack of "incalculable" size if Tehran blocks oil supplies coming through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global supplies pass.

His remarks come just days after he issued a statement saying Iran's "unconditional surrender" was the only acceptable outcome for ending the war, which sent shivers through markets fearing an elongated war.

Still, Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded by saying that they, not the Americans, would "determine the end of the war".

Investors jumped on the comments, sending crude prices plunging around 10 percent Tuesday.

That came a day after extreme swings that saw the commodity rocket 30 percent to a peak above $119 a barrel before plunging to as low as $84.

The recovery had already begun earlier Monday after it emerged that finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrialized nations would discuss tapping stockpiles to ease supply constraints.

Trump also said he would waive some Ukraine war-linked sanctions on Russian oil sales to India, with White House officials reassuring G7 partners that the move would only be temporary.

And Asian stock markets rallied, with Seoul up more than six percent and Tokyo gaining more than three percent. There were also healthy advances in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta.

That came after all three main indexes on Wall Street ended sharply higher, having reversed early heavy selling.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts focused Monday on the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked to nearly all oil tankers.

French President Emmanuel Macron said France was working with allies on a "purely defensive" mission to reopen the waterway.

About 10 vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz have come under attack since Iran blocked the strait in retaliation for the US-Israeli strikes, shipping experts say.

Global shipping giant MSC announced it was formally halting some export shipments from the Gulf, while Bahrain's state-owned energy company Bapco joined counterparts in Qatar and Kuwait in declaring "force majeure" -- a warning that events beyond its control may lead it to miss export targets.

The Saudi defense ministry said Monday it had thwarted a drone attack targeting an oil field in the kingdom's east, near the Emirati border.

"It has been an incredibly wild ride for traders and investors to navigate the price action put to them over the past 24 hours, with breathtaking reversals taking place across many parts of the financial markets," Chris Weston, an analyst at Pepperstone.

"The pressure valve has clearly been released for now. However, volatility across energy markets remains exceptionally elevated.

"While the most extreme stress has eased, markets are still pricing a significant degree of uncertainty and risk.

"The geopolitical backdrop remains fluid, and traders should expect volatility to remain a defining feature of the trading environment in the days ahead."



Gold Holds Steady, Eyes Fourth Weekly Gain on US-Iran Peace Deal Hopes

Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)
Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)
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Gold Holds Steady, Eyes Fourth Weekly Gain on US-Iran Peace Deal Hopes

Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)
Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)

Gold held largely steady on Friday and was on track for a fourth straight weekly gain, as hopes for a US-Iran peace deal eased fears of higher inflation and elevated interest rates.

Spot gold eased 0.1% to $4,784.72 per ounce by 0646 GMT, but was up about 1% so far this week. US gold futures for June fell 0.1% to $4,805.20.

A 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and ‌Israel went ‌into effect on Thursday and US President Donald ‌Trump ⁠said the next meeting between ⁠the United States and Iran may take place over the weekend.

"Investors are now watching closely for concrete progress in US-Iran negotiations. Any progress or extension of the current fragile ceasefire could further calm oil markets and inflation fears, potentially unlocking more upside for gold," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

The US dollar was headed ⁠for a second weekly drop, making greenback-denominated commodities ‌more affordable for holders of other currencies, Reuters said.

Oil ‌prices fell, easing fears of higher inflation on optimism that the Iran ‌war could be nearing an end.

Concerns that higher energy prices ‌could stoke inflation and keep global interest rates higher for longer have driven down gold prices by more than 8% since the Iran war began in late February.

While gold is considered an inflation hedge, higher interest rates crimp ‌demand for the non-yielding asset.

Traders now see a 27% chance of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve interest ⁠rate cut in ⁠December. Before the war, there were expectations of two reductions for this year.

Meanwhile, Indian banks have halted gold and silver import orders from overseas suppliers, with tons of the metals stuck at customs as a formal government order has not been issued authorizing bullion imports.

Gold demand in India was modest this week, as high domestic prices weighed on retail purchases ahead of the key Akshaya Tritiya festival weekend, while premiums in China held steady.

Spot silver rose 0.3% to $78.61 per ounce, and was headed for a fourth straight weekly gain.

Platinum fell 0.3% to $2,079.24 and palladium was down 0.5% at $1,542.50. Both the metals were on track for a third straight weekly gain.


IMF: Middle East Faces Pivotal Economic Moment

Azour speaks during a presentation of the Regional Economic Outlook update (AFP)
Azour speaks during a presentation of the Regional Economic Outlook update (AFP)
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IMF: Middle East Faces Pivotal Economic Moment

Azour speaks during a presentation of the Regional Economic Outlook update (AFP)
Azour speaks during a presentation of the Regional Economic Outlook update (AFP)

The International Monetary Fund said the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan were facing a pivotal and exceptionally difficult moment in their modern economic history after the war that broke out on Feb. 28, 2026, describing it as a severe and multifaceted shock to one of the world’s most strategically important economic corridors.

The IMF said the conflict was not merely a border crisis but had disrupted “three pillars of stability, energy markets, trade routes, and business confidence,” triggering a global energy shock and weakening supply chains.

Amid these challenges, Saudi Arabia’s economy emerged as a model of resilience, showing what the IMF described as “exceptional sturdiness” that enabled it to absorb the impact of disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and a decline in regional output, supported by the pillars of Vision 2030, which strengthened fiscal discipline and logistical flexibility.

Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said while presenting an update of the Regional Economic Outlook in Washington, on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, that the war was reshaping the region’s economic outlook.

At the center of the shock was energy, he said, noting that the Strait of Hormuz, “the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply and about one-quarter of global LNG trade normally transit,” had come close to a standstill.

He said disruptions and shutdowns had cut oil and gas output across Gulf Cooperation Council countries, pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel, while “European gas prices rose by roughly 60 percent, exceeding the spike observed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” putting global energy security at risk.

He said energy disruptions caused by the war would weigh heavily on Gulf exporters, while oil-importing countries such as Egypt and Jordan were facing higher commodity prices and weaker remittance flows.

More broadly, the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to see a marked slowdown in growth this year, with real GDP projected at about 1.1%, significantly below pre-war forecasts, before a recovery in 2027, according to the IMF.

Azour said the shock extended beyond oil and gas, noting that “commodity disruptions extend beyond oil and gas,” affecting fertilizers, chemicals, and other products in which the region holds a strategic position.

He warned that rising food costs were directly threatening vulnerable populations, saying that “these price increases translate directly into higher food costs for some of the world’s most vulnerable populations,” particularly in import-dependent economies across the region and beyond.

He added that the conflict had also affected services, saying, “air traffic collapsed at major Gulf hubs, maritime insurance premiums surged, shipping routes lengthened, and logistics chains weakened,” highlighting the broad impact on aviation and logistics.

The IMF said some oil-importing economies in the region relied heavily on Gulf countries for energy imports and financial flows, leaving them exposed if the conflict intensified or persisted.

Saudi experience

Azour said one of the most important lessons from the war and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz was the need to diversify trade routes.

“This shock underscores the importance of building greater resilience and strengthening integration,” he said, adding that this includes “diversifying trade routes and deepening regional cooperation,” to ensure the continued flow of goods and energy.

He said Saudi Arabia’s approach under its strategic vision went beyond infrastructure development to a broader reshaping of logistics networks. By expanding alternative ports on the Red Sea and strengthening land and rail connectivity, the kingdom reduced its reliance on a single maritime chokepoint.

He said this ability to create parallel trade routes allowed Saudi trade to continue effectively despite disruptions to regional corridors, offering a model for protecting economic security and ensuring uninterrupted supply flows.

Egypt

Azour said economic reforms implemented by Egypt, along with stronger policy buffers, were helping the country better manage external shocks.

He said allowing the exchange rate to become more flexible helped absorb shocks, while higher reserves provided reassurance to markets.

Regional divergence

The IMF report highlighted a sharp divergence across countries. Qatar faced a steep downgrade to growth forecasts due to damage to its gas infrastructure, while Oman showed relative resilience given its geographic position outside the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, financing pressures increased on Egypt, Pakistan, and Jordan as sovereign spreads widened, prompting Azour to stress that the IMF stood ready to support countries.

He said that if oil production recovered and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened, countries would be able to increase output quickly, adding that higher oil prices compared with pre-2026 levels would help producers recover some of their losses from the crisis.


Pakistan Central Bank Receives $2 billion from Saudi Arabia as Part of Broader Financial Support Package

Mohammed Al-Jadaan and Muhammad Aurangzeb following the agreement for Saudi Arabia to provide an additional $3 billion in support to Pakistan (X).
Mohammed Al-Jadaan and Muhammad Aurangzeb following the agreement for Saudi Arabia to provide an additional $3 billion in support to Pakistan (X).
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Pakistan Central Bank Receives $2 billion from Saudi Arabia as Part of Broader Financial Support Package

Mohammed Al-Jadaan and Muhammad Aurangzeb following the agreement for Saudi Arabia to provide an additional $3 billion in support to Pakistan (X).
Mohammed Al-Jadaan and Muhammad Aurangzeb following the agreement for Saudi Arabia to provide an additional $3 billion in support to Pakistan (X).

Pakistan announced that it has received $2 billion from Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance as part of a broader financial support package.

Earlier, Pakistan’s Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, said that Saudi Arabia had committed to depositing an additional $3 billion, while extending an existing $5 billion loan for three years instead of renewing it annually.

This support comes as Pakistan faces repayment of $3.5 billion to the United Arab Emirates, putting pressure on its reserves, which stand at about $16.4 billion.

Saudi Arabia has a history of assisting Pakistan during economic crises, including a $6 billion support package in 2018 that included deposits and deferred oil payments.