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JPMorgan Cuts Forecast for Emerging Market Corporate Defaults

FILE PHOTO: A man walks into the JP Morgan headquarters at Canary Wharf in London May 11, 2012. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A man walks into the JP Morgan headquarters at Canary Wharf in London May 11, 2012. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez/File Photo
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JPMorgan Cuts Forecast for Emerging Market Corporate Defaults

FILE PHOTO: A man walks into the JP Morgan headquarters at Canary Wharf in London May 11, 2012. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A man walks into the JP Morgan headquarters at Canary Wharf in London May 11, 2012. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez/File Photo

Investment bank JPMorgan cut on Monday its forecast of the number of emerging market companies expected to default on their debt, following the biggest improvement in distressed-level market pricing since 2016.
With some defaults out the way and others not having materialized, 2024 is also expected to be the first year since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 that EM corporate default levels fall below the historical average.
The bank lowered its high yield or 'junk'-rated EM corporate default forecast to 3.6% from 4.0% globally and to 2.1% from 2.9% for firms in the closely-followed CEMBI Broad Diversified index, which is run by a separate JPMorgan unit.
"We see lower risks for the rest of the year as some of the default candidates rolled off and others already materialized, while new additions were limited," the bank's analysts said in a research note.
Problems are expected to stay concentrated in China's property sector and among "repeat defaulters" in the likes of Latin America, although the bank also pointed out that there had not been a Ukrainian default yet this year, despite its war.
Regionally, Asia's default forecast was left at 4.5% overall and 2.5% for the CEMBI group. Latin America's was cut by 1% to 4.6% and to 2.8% for the CEMBI.
EM Europe was lowered to 2.0% from 3.0% and to 2.3% for CEMBI BD HY, while Middle East & Africa was nudged up to 0.6% from 0.5%, with the CEMBI at 0.5%.
According to Reuters, the note highlighted how much more optimistic international investors now seemed to be.
The share of EM firms viewed as being in a "distressed" state and at serious risk of default had plunged 7% this year - distress being defined as having a 1,000 basis point risk premium or 'spread' on their bonds.
That is the largest improvement in any calendar year since 2016, JPMorgan's analysts added.
"Assuming 50% of bonds trading at distressed levels may default 12 months forward suggests a 4.6% default rate, but we believe this outcome is unlikely," they said.
This was because more than half the distressed volume is from China, where bond prices are depressed in excess of the actual default risk, they added.

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Business

Saudi Tourism Development Fund Partnerships Exceed $1.1 Billion  

The view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Tourism Development Fund Partnerships Exceed $1.1 Billion  

The view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The Saudi Tourism Development Fund (TDF) has signed new partnerships with government and private entities with a financial impact exceeding SAR 4 billion ($1.1 billion), as part of its role in expanding financing for small and medium-sized tourism enterprises across the Kingdom.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Fahad Al-Ashgar, General Manager of Business Development at TDF, said the fund offers tailored empowerment programs for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs).

“We have a clear success story,” he said, noting that the fund has financed 2,500 enterprises with the support of its partners in recent years. This financing has helped create and sustain 74,000 jobs in Saudi Arabia’s tourism sector.

Al-Ashgar made these remarks during the Development Finance Conference held last week under the patronage of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Prime Minister and Chairman of the National Development Fund, as part of the Momentum 2025 platform themed “Leading Development Transformation,” in the Saudi capital.

Empowering tourism

Al-Ashgar added that TDF acts as an enabler of the tourism sector and has signed six agreements under its Tourism Enablement Programs, targeting MSMEs across all regions of the Kingdom.

These initiatives complement the fund’s direct financing, which supports both foreign and domestic investment, in addition to a memorandum of understanding signed with the Small and Medium Enterprises Bank.

Established in 2020, the Tourism Development Fund aims to enable and attract tourism investment and stimulate sectoral development by creating more profitable projects that contribute to developing tourism destinations.

The fund is one of six newly established funds created to support Saudi Vision 2030 goals, according to National Development Fund Governor Stephen Paul Groff in earlier remarks.

TDF CEO Qusai Al-Fakhri said the average annual number of beneficiaries has increased tenfold, while the volume of financing has more than doubled compared to previous years.

The fund goes beyond financing to build an integrated enablement ecosystem that creates new investment opportunities, strengthens development finance, empowers the private sector, and ensures inclusive growth across all regions, enabling MSMEs to contribute to national development, he added.

Partnership details

Recent partnerships include the launch of a new financing program with the Kafalah Program, with a market value estimated at SAR 700 million ($190 million), in cooperation with more than 45 financing entities. Previous collaboration enabled over 2,000 enterprises to obtain financing guarantees exceeding SAR 2 billion ($530 million).

The fund also signed a new SAR 300 million ($80 million) financing agreement with the Arab National Bank, adding to a similar agreement signed last year that benefited 249 enterprises within one year.

TDF confirmed that more than 10,000 enterprises have benefited to date from the Tourism Enablement Programs, as part of broader efforts to increase MSME participation in tourism and diversify projects across the Kingdom, in line with Vision 2030 growth objectives.

Business

Gulf Development Boom Redefines the Consulting Industry

The consulting market in the Gulf is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by rising expectations, intensifying competition, and the pursuit of long-term value (Asharq Al-Awsat). 
The consulting market in the Gulf is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by rising expectations, intensifying competition, and the pursuit of long-term value (Asharq Al-Awsat). 
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Gulf Development Boom Redefines the Consulting Industry

The consulting market in the Gulf is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by rising expectations, intensifying competition, and the pursuit of long-term value (Asharq Al-Awsat). 
The consulting market in the Gulf is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by rising expectations, intensifying competition, and the pursuit of long-term value (Asharq Al-Awsat). 

The rapid acceleration of development programs across the Gulf, powered by national visions and landmark mega-projects, is transforming not only the region’s economies but also the consulting industry that supports them.

As governments and companies pursue unprecedented scale and ambition, they are increasingly seeking advisory partners capable of delivering measurable impact, practical execution, and long-term capability building, rather than strategies that remain confined to paper.

Recent studies indicate that as investment levels rise and expectations intensify, the central challenge is no longer the formulation of bold strategies, but their translation into tangible economic and institutional outcomes.

This shift has reshaped the consulting landscape, raising the bar for performance at a time when traditional advisory models are no longer sufficient. Clients now demand integrated solutions that generate real change, embed knowledge, and create value that extends well beyond theoretical recommendations.

According to a study by Strategy&, obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat, governments and companies across the region are increasingly prioritizing multidisciplinary expertise that combines global perspective with deep local understanding. In this new environment, a consulting firm’s credibility is defined by its ability to convert recommendations into measurable, on-the-ground results.

Jad Hajj, Managing Director and Regional Leader of Strategy& Middle East, part of the PricewaterhouseCoopers network, said ambitious transformation agendas will remain central to the region’s future.

“What distinguishes the current phase is the growing emphasis on sustainable value,” he said. “Governments and private-sector companies are looking for partners who can deliver outcomes, integrate knowledge transfer across the value chain, and bring a deep understanding of local priorities.”

The sector’s growth has attracted a broader range of players, from specialized local firms and in-house advisory teams within government entities and corporations, to technology companies offering innovative consulting services. This diversification is reshaping the market and intensifying competition. “This environment compels all participants to clearly demonstrate the value they bring,” Hajj added.

Mega-Projects and Integrated Ecosystems

Mega-projects and economic diversification initiatives across the Gulf underscore the importance of value creation in this phase, as they reshape regional economies at scale. The central challenge lies in execution, ensuring that investments translate into lasting economic impact by building integrated ecosystems, strengthening institutional and industrial capabilities, and embedding technology and artificial intelligence to support long-term growth.

These dynamics are most evident in Saudi Arabia, the largest and fastest-growing consulting market in the Gulf. Flagship developments such as the Red Sea destination and Qiddiya continue to advance the Kingdom’s diversification agenda and drive transformation across multiple sectors.

This fast-evolving environment requires consulting firms to strengthen coordination during execution, apply rigorous performance measurement, and deliver targeted insights aligned with national priorities to maximize impact.

“We are experiencing a fundamental transformation across all sectors, and consulting is no exception,” Hajj stated, adding: “Clients now expect a seamless link between strategy and execution, which requires close collaboration with local partners and sustained capability building. At the same time, innovations such as artificial intelligence are reshaping delivery models and governance to ensure lasting results.”

Technology and Gulf Talent

Artificial intelligence sits at the center of the consulting sector’s evolution, offering both efficiency gains and structural change. Hajj noted that AI enables faster and deeper analysis, allowing consultants to devote more time to stakeholder engagement and long-term strategic design.

AI is also narrowing the gap between strategy and execution by overcoming scale and capability constraints and enabling firms to provide practical tools that help clients implement strategies and track outcomes. While AI enhances speed and quality, Hajj emphasized that critical judgment, accountability, and sector insight remain core human responsibilities.

Alongside technological change, firms are investing in local talent development to ensure sustainable impact. Strategy& has launched initiatives such as the 10-month “Qadat Program for Gulf Nationals,” aimed at equipping high-potential graduates with hands-on experience and leadership skills to support national visions.

A Rapidly Evolving Market

The Gulf consulting market is undergoing rapid change, driven by higher expectations, intensifying competition, and a growing focus on long-term value. Success is no longer measured by advice alone, but by the tangible outcomes delivered and the capabilities embedded within organizations after projects conclude.

Hajj underlined: “This region is redefining what it means to be a trusted advisor... Clients expect measurable results, capability building, and sustained engagement. While the journey continues, this is a pivotal moment to contribute meaningfully to the region’s long-term ambitions.”

 

 

Business

Innovation Center for Electric Vehicles Inaugurated in Saudi Arabia

The new center, inaugurated in Riyadh, will carry out high-level research into electric vehicle technology (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
The new center, inaugurated in Riyadh, will carry out high-level research into electric vehicle technology (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
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Innovation Center for Electric Vehicles Inaugurated in Saudi Arabia

The new center, inaugurated in Riyadh, will carry out high-level research into electric vehicle technology (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
The new center, inaugurated in Riyadh, will carry out high-level research into electric vehicle technology (Asharq Al-Awsat) 

King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST) and Lucid Group, the manufacturer of some of the world’s most advanced electric vehicles, announced on Sunday the inauguration of the first Electric Vehicle Innovation Center in the Middle East, located in Saudi Arabia.

The new center, inaugurated in the presence of President of KACST Dr. Munir bin Mahmoud Eldesouki, serves as a key platform bringing together local, regional, and global research expertise.

It reflects KACST’s ongoing commitment to innovation and reinforces Lucid’s leadership in advanced technologies.

The center is also focused on enhancing the efficiency, functionality, and performance across Lucid’s product portfolio, contributing to their accelerated development, strengthening their leadership within their segment, and supporting the growth of the Kingdom’s future mobility sector.

“This new innovation center embodies our ongoing commitment to leading the advancement of electric vehicle technology, and our support toward strengthening Saudi Arabia a hub for technological innovation,” said Interim CEO at Lucid, Marc Winterhoff.

“By combining Lucid’s engineering expertise with KACST’s advanced research capabilities, we will continue to push the boundaries of what’s possible. Our teams are eager to begin the planned work together, recognizing this research will help shape the future of sustainable mobility,” he noted.

Senior Vice President for Research and Development at KACST, Dr. Talal bin Ahmed Alsedairy, emphasized that the center represents a pivotal step in enabling Saudi talent to develop future technologies in electric vehicles, batteries, and smart systems.

“The center enhances local content and bolsters the Kingdom’s capabilities in advanced industries, supporting the goals of Vision 2030 and broader national aspirations,” he said.

Alsedairy said this cooperation contributes to the transfer and localization of advanced, high-impact technologies, the establishment of new industrial value chains, and the strengthening of integration between the research, development, and innovation system, the industrial strategy, and the investment strategy, thereby accelerating the transformation of knowledge into products and technologies that support the future of sustainable mobility and enhance the competitiveness of the national economy.

For his part, President of Lucid Middle East, Faisal Sultan, said the opening of this center is a major step forward in Lucid’s commitment to the Kingdom.

“This collaboration strengthens our regional presence, nurtures local talent, and contributes to building a vibrant technology ecosystem aligned with Vision 2030,” he noted.

The center was developed in collaboration with KACST, one of the Kingdom’s leading research, development, and innovation institutions, forming the second phase of the ongoing strategic partnership between the two parties.

Its purpose is to advance scientific research, support innovation, and develop sustainable technologies by leveraging specialized Saudi expertise.

The center began its operations as a specialized facility for testing and validation and has since evolved to cover all stages of electric vehicle development. It represents a qualitative leap in the collaborative efforts between the two parties and serves as an extension of Lucid's comprehensive network of facilities in the US.

It will dedicate its efforts to advanced research, support the dissemination of the company’s world-leading technologies, and play a pivotal role in developing future products and will serve as a key pillar of the Kingdom’s national research and development infrastructure and actively contribute to the innovation and industrial application of future technologies within the country.