Fears of Iranian Retaliation Weigh on Exhausted Syrians

A Druze Sheikh near a Syrian army position in Quneitra, Golan Heights, on July 30 (AP)

Damascus remains unclear about its official stance on a possible Iranian retaliation against Israel following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
State media has avoided discussing the potential fallout, even though there is speculation that Iran might use Syrian airspace and territory for any response.
Syrian analysts told Asharq Al-Awsat that Tehran seems to be overstating its plans for retaliation, especially compared to its actions in April when it launched drones and missiles after senior military leaders were killed in a strike on its consulate in Damascus.
They suggest that Iran is looking to strengthen its negotiating position with Washington and the international community and is unlikely to risk a major conflict that could result in significant losses, particularly to its nuclear program.
The analysts also noted that Iran might rely on its regional allies in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen for its response.
Damascus, worn out from years of conflict, understands this but feels unable to either distance itself publicly or fully commit to any actions, except reluctantly.
There are concerns that Iran could use southern Syria as a base for retaliation, which might disrupt ceasefire agreements and reignite conflict with Israel. Analysts also warn that any decision Damascus makes could have serious consequences.
Fears of an imminent Iranian response are causing Syrian markets to freeze, with many people anxiously waiting for news.
Journalists in Damascus are working late, expecting any moment to see the start of a potential conflict that could push Syria back to conditions from a decade ago.
In border areas near Iraq and Lebanon, people are scared of being affected by an Iranian strike on Israel.
In western Homs, where the Iran-aligned Hezbollah group is active, locals say that “Iranians and Hezbollah are secretly moving into civilian areas, only becoming known when Israel targets them.”