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Turkish Isbank CEO Sees Challenges ahead, November Rate Cut

A Turkish flag with the Bosphorus Bridge in the background, flies on a passenger ferry in Istanbul, Türkiye September 30, 2020. (Reuters)
A Turkish flag with the Bosphorus Bridge in the background, flies on a passenger ferry in Istanbul, Türkiye September 30, 2020. (Reuters)
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Turkish Isbank CEO Sees Challenges ahead, November Rate Cut

A Turkish flag with the Bosphorus Bridge in the background, flies on a passenger ferry in Istanbul, Türkiye September 30, 2020. (Reuters)
A Turkish flag with the Bosphorus Bridge in the background, flies on a passenger ferry in Istanbul, Türkiye September 30, 2020. (Reuters)

Turkish banks will pay the price throughout next year as challenges linger from the country's economic turnaround, the chief executive of lender Isbank said in an interview, adding he expects the central bank to begin cutting interest rates this November.

CEO Hakan Aran told Reuters that Türkiye's largest private bank by assets plans to expand its footprint in payment system infrastructure, digital platforms and service banking, where it will make new partnerships and acquisitions abroad.

The growth plan comes as Isbank marks its 100-year anniversary, and as Turkish authorities seek to stamp out soaring inflation with high interest rates and other tightening measures that have squeezed financial-sector balance sheets.

"I think difficulties will also continue throughout 2025. We all will continue to pay the price for the sake of ensuring price stability and lowering inflation," Aran said in the interview at Isbank's Istanbul headquarters.

"Banks will overcome this process with a deterioration in net interest margin this year, and a deterioration in the asset quality next year."

Asset quality already began eroding in July, while net interest margins are under serious pressure, Aran added.

"Banks' return on equity is decreasing. If we were mandated to do 'inflation accounting', many banks would probably be reporting losses," he said. "Banks seem to be profitable right now because there is no inflation accounting."

The government last year excluded banks from companies applying inflation-adjusted accounting methods to their balance sheets over concerns it would result in tax revenue losses.

Since June last year, the central bank has hiked its policy rate to 50% from 8.5% to reverse years of unorthodox easy-money policies under President Tayyip Erdogan, who supported the U-turn.

Inflation dipped below 62% last month and is expected to continue easing, setting up potential rate cuts in the months ahead.

Aran predicted the central bank would begin easing monetary policy in November with a 250 basis-point cut, roughly in line with analysts' expectations. The rate would fall to 45% by year end and to 25% by end-2025, he predicted.

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Business

IEA Hails Saudi Arabia’s ‘Rapid Response’ to Strait of Hormuz Crisis

This photograph shows the entrance to the International Energy Agency (IEA) headquarters in Paris on March 11, 2026. (AFP)
This photograph shows the entrance to the International Energy Agency (IEA) headquarters in Paris on March 11, 2026. (AFP)
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IEA Hails Saudi Arabia’s ‘Rapid Response’ to Strait of Hormuz Crisis

This photograph shows the entrance to the International Energy Agency (IEA) headquarters in Paris on March 11, 2026. (AFP)
This photograph shows the entrance to the International Energy Agency (IEA) headquarters in Paris on March 11, 2026. (AFP)

Countries must resist the urge to hoard oil and fuel during the energy crisis triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran, head of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol warned on Sunday, with supplies expected to dwindle further if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Birol praised Saudi Arabia for its rapid response to the crisis, after it rerouted over two-thirds of its oil exports through a pipeline to the Red Sea, bypassing the strait.

“I urge all countries not to impose bans or restrictions on exports,” Birol told the Financial Times. “It is the worst time when you look at the global oil markets. Their trade partners, their allies and their neighbors will suffer as a result.”

While he was careful not to name China directly, Birol’s comments appear to be aimed at Beijing.

China is the only major country to have banned the export of petrol, diesel and jet fuel in response to the five-week-old war, although India has imposed extra duties on exports.

Birol said “major countries in Asia who hold major refineries” should rethink any ban.

“If those countries continue to restrict or totally ban exports, the impact on the Asian markets will be dramatic.”

His plea for countries to avoid bans may also be pointed at the US, where rumors of a potential ban on refined fuel exports are circulating as gasoline prices pass $4 a gallon and California faces the threat of jet fuel shortages.

While the US supported a G7 call for no export bans, its energy secretary Chris Wright has so far only ruled out a ban on crude oil exports.

Birol said some countries are already hoarding energy, undermining the impact of the IEA’s move to release 400 million barrels of crude and fuel from emergency reserves in an effort to stabilize markets during the current conflict.

“Unfortunately, we see that some countries are adding to their existing stocks during our coordinated oil stock release,” he said. “They are stocking up. This is not helpful. In my view this is a time for all countries to prove they are a responsible member of the international community.”

Saudi response

Birol praised Saudi Arabia for its rapid response to the crisis, after it rerouted over two-thirds of its oil exports through a pipeline to the Red Sea, bypassing the strait.

He said he had been reassured by the “highest authorities in Saudi Arabia” that this key pipeline is “well protected.”

Birol, who as head of the IEA has been at the heart of discussions over how to respond to the crisis, warned that “in April, we will lose twice the amount of crude oil and [refined] products we lost in March” if the Hormuz Strait does not reopen to shipping.

In normal times, one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows through the waterway, which has been all but closed by Iranian threats to fire upon shipping.

“We are following all the key energy assets in the region on a daily or hourly basis,” he said, referring to oil and gas fields, pipelines, refineries and LNG terminals. “Currently there are 72 energy assets damaged and one-third are severely or very severely damaged,” he added.

Birol also said the current crisis would redraw the world’s energy system, as did previous crises in the 1970s and the one triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

He predicted that the current crisis would trigger another nuclear revival, a boom in electric vehicles and a push for more renewables, as well as prompting some countries to burn more coal. But he said the gas industry, which had presented itself as a reliable supplier, would have to “work hard to regain its reputation” after two energy shocks in four years.

Business

JMMC Holds 65th Meeting via Videoconference, Discusses Energy Security and Market Stability

General view of Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia May 21, 2018. REUTERS/Ahmed Jadallah
General view of Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia May 21, 2018. REUTERS/Ahmed Jadallah
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JMMC Holds 65th Meeting via Videoconference, Discusses Energy Security and Market Stability

General view of Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia May 21, 2018. REUTERS/Ahmed Jadallah
General view of Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia May 21, 2018. REUTERS/Ahmed Jadallah

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Algeria and Venezuela holds its 65th Meeting via videoconference.

The JMMC reviewed current market conditions and emphasized the essential role of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) in supporting the stability of global energy markets, according to SPA.

In this context, the committee highlighted the critical importance of safeguarding international maritime routes to ensure the uninterrupted flow of energy.

It also expressed concern regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, noting that restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time, thereby affecting overall supply availability.

Accordingly, the committee stressed that any actions undermining energy supply security, whether through attacks on infrastructure or disruption of international maritime routes, increase market volatility and weaken the collective efforts under the DoC to support market stability for the benefit of producers, consumers, and the global economy.

In this regard, the committee commended the DoC countries that took the initiative to ensure the continued availability of supplies, particularly through the use of alternative export routes, which have contributed to reducing market volatility.

The JMMC will continue to closely monitor market conditions and retains the authority to convene additional meetings or request an OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, as established at the 38th ONOMM held on December 5 2024.

The next meeting of the JMMC (66th) is scheduled for June 7, 2026.

Business

Saudi Market Edges Higher on Insurance and Basic Materials Support

An investor monitors stock prices on a screen at the Saudi stock market in Riyadh (AFP)
An investor monitors stock prices on a screen at the Saudi stock market in Riyadh (AFP)
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Saudi Market Edges Higher on Insurance and Basic Materials Support

An investor monitors stock prices on a screen at the Saudi stock market in Riyadh (AFP)
An investor monitors stock prices on a screen at the Saudi stock market in Riyadh (AFP)

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) edged up 0.03 percent to 11,272 points on Sunday, supported by insurance and basic materials stocks. Total traded value reached SAR 4.27 billion ($1.1 billion).

Shares of Petro Rabigh and The National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia (Bahri) rose 1 percent and 1.5 percent to SAR 10.9 and SAR 32.6, respectively.

Saudi Arabian Amiantit Co. (Amiantit) led gainers, rising 10 percent to SAR 15.63. In the materials sector, SABIC and Maaden advanced 0.84 percent and 0.46 percent to SAR 60.05 and SAR 65.7, respectively.

In insurance, The Company for Cooperative Insurance (Tawuniya) and Bupa Arabia climbed 1 percent and 2 percent to SAR 127.3 and SAR 174.1, respectively. Almarai rose 1.2 percent to SAR 44.48 after reporting its Q1 2029 results.

On the downside, Saudi Aramco—the index heavyweight—declined 0.22 percent to SAR 27.54.

ACWA Power fell about 1 percent to SAR 168 after announcing last week a temporary curtailment of power output at two of its solar projects. Emaar The Economic City (Emaar EC) was the biggest decliner, falling 7.6 percent to SAR 10.88.