The pro-Iran Coordination Framework in Iraq is intensifying its pressure on Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to resign in wake of the wire-tapping scandal that has rocked the country.
Trusted sources said the alliance, which brought al-Sudani to office in the first place, is now waging a “grinding” battle that could pave the way for radical political changes in the country.
Sources briefed Asharq Al-Awsat of the details of a meeting the Framework held on August 26 to discuss the scandal and its impact on the government.
Head of the State of Law coalition, former PM Nouri al-Maliki proposed “difficult” conditions on al-Sudani in exchange for not forcing the government to resign.
The sources included a judicial figure informed on the wire-tapping case and two leading members of the Framework. Opposition Shiite members of parliament were informed of details of the meeting and they confirmed that al-Sudani “refused to yield” to Maliki’s demands.
Confessions
During the meeting, the Framework was briefed by a judicial official on the details of the wire-tapping case and confessions of the suspects.
Gatherers at the meeting listened to voice recordings of people who spoke of orders from “the highest government” authority to “monitor politicians and officials.”
The wire-tapping case “has become fact with dangerous repercussions,” said the sources.
Local media has been filled with reports in recent weeks about the scandal. Verifying the reports remains difficult because official authorities have yet to provide evidence in the case.
The government has said that it was being targeted by a campaign of incitement to tarnish its image. It did release brief statements to announce the arrest of an employee in al-Sudani's office on charges of “making a harmful post”.
Al-Sudani had informed the leaders of Shiite parties of the Framework that he was prepared to cooperate with the judiciary in the case and aid in the transparent investigation.
The confessions, however, changed everything, said the sources.
They said the leaders of the Shiite parties left the Framework meeting in shock and dismay.
The confessions revealed that senior politicians were targeted, including Maliki, leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq faction Qais al-Khazali and others.
Maliki’s conditions
Maliki emerged from the meeting with difficult demands because he refused to close the wire-tapping case without receiving anything in return from al-Sudani.
“The shock of the confessions will not pass without a firm response,” the sources quoted Maliki as saying.
He demanded that al-Sudani cede control of the intelligence agency and turn it over to the Framework. He called for expelling all members of al-Sudani's clan from government institutions and restructuring the government office.
He demanded that al-Sudani refrain from running in the upcoming elections and that he dissolve his Al-Furatayn party.
One of the sources confirmed that Maliki did indeed make these demands, except for the last one about dissolving the party.
Maliki believes that the confessions are enough to force al-Sudani to resign immediately, it added.
Observers view Maliki’s intense rivalry with al-Sudani as a result of the PM’s efforts to play a greater role in political life and his plans to run for a second term in office through forging alliances outside the Framework that had brought him to power.
Al-Sudani's refusal to go ahead with Maliki’s conditions will lead to early elections in Iraq, the sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Maliki had also made the demand himself: either al-Sudani yield to his conditions or Iraq heads to early polls.
Two sources said the former PM believes he can garner the support of the country’s top Religious Authority and the Sadrist movement, led by influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, to hold early elections.
Al-Sudani stands firm
Al-Sudani, meanwhile, has refused to yield to Maliki’s demands, revealed sources close to the premier. He believes he enjoys enough support and influence to wage a “battle” against Maliki.
He can also rely on his executive power as prime minister and the major political push he received with last week’s announcement that an agreement has been reached between Baghdad and Washington over a timeframe for the withdrawal of the International Coalition forces from Iraq.
Al-Sudani also enjoys the support of Shiite figures, such as head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) Faleh al-Fayyadh and head of the Islamic Supreme Council Hammam Hammoudi.
However, relations between al-Sudani and one of his closest allies, Khazali, appear strained for now. The latter will not offer “gifts for free”, said the sources.
Al-Sudani needs support from Khazali’s Asaib Ahl al-Haq to “secure the future of his government” given the faction’s influence.
As it stands, the Framework is now dominated by two movements: the first includes Al-Sudani, Fayyadh and Hammoudi, and the second is led by Maliki. Caught in the middle are Ammar al-Hakim and Hadi al-Ameri, who are keen to benefit from the other movements.
The “centrist movement” knows the limits of its political weight. Hakim and Ameri are aware that they don’t stand to achieve greater influence in the future than what they have now, so they are keen on preserving the current equation in the Framework and their interests, said the sources.
Weakened Framework
A prominent Shiite official told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Framework is “gradually turning into a cover for rival movements that are on the verge of quitting the alliance at any moment.”
Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said the problems within the Framework started before the wire-tapping scandal and go back to the “heist of the century” and its main suspect Nour Zuhair.
Accusations about Zuhair and questions about who is backing him have turned into a major thorny issue in the Framework, explained the official.
Al-Sudani started by first “tossing Zuhair’s case to the judiciary,” while major political powers resorted to their “secret tools” against the government.
Hakim at one point proposed a solution that calls for ending the current escalation between the Shiite powers and reaching a new agreement. But it appears it has fallen on deaf ears, said the sources.
Shiite figures have instead said the crisis can now be addressed through one of the following means: a direct confrontation between the Shiite forces, reaching some form of middle ground, or holding early elections.
Early elections appear to be the likeliest scenario given al-Sudani's refusal to back down to Maliki and the latter’s insistence that the government should not be allowed to finish its legal term in office because it must pay the price for the wire-tapping scandal.
