The Truth between Two Wars: July 2006 and October 2023

Lebanese former Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. (Getty Images)
Lebanese former Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. (Getty Images)
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The Truth between Two Wars: July 2006 and October 2023

Lebanese former Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. (Getty Images)
Lebanese former Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. (Getty Images)

The dangerous plight Lebanon endured in 2006 and currently enduring since October 8, 2023, share several similarities and vast differences.

The moment the Israeli enemy carried out its aggression against Lebanon in July 2006 – under the pretext of retaliating to a Hezbollah military operation and kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers – I called cabinet to meet to discuss the danger of the assault and its consequences. We discussed measures that should be taken to protect national security and civilians in areas that were being targeted to prevent the South from being emptied of its people.

I clearly stated that the government was taken by surprise by Hezbollah’s operation. We were unaware of it and did not adopt it. We condemned the Israeli aggression against Lebanon, its sovereignty and people, and urged the need to file an urgent complaint at the United Nations Security Council and demand a ceasefire.

- Distance between the state and party -

The government effectively established a clear distance between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah, allowing it to address the Arab and international communities to help Lebanon and strengthen its perseverance. This also enabled and allowed it to assume its role as the victim – a role Israel had tried to play since that morning of July 12, 2023.

I made sure that the Lebanese state, with all of its elements and means, would be responsible for everything: tackling the outcomes of what happened and what would happen, that it would assume its responsibilities in taking all measures and decisions to protect Lebanon and its people, and that it would provide all the means for their perseverance and protect the displaced Lebanese.

Since that day, the government Serial turned into a tireless national workshop, while members of government formed a united team to defend Lebanon and ensure the functioning of state institutions to allow daily life to continue. Civil society was also entrusted with playing its role in defending Lebanon.

On the external front, and with the cooperation of Lebanon’s foreign minister, daily contacts were intensified with senior world officials, such as the UN secretary-general, heads of fraternal Arab states and friendly influential countries that could impact world decisions. A ceasefire was our primary demand at the Security Council.

At the time, the Israeli enemy continued its war on Lebanon. It targeted vital facilities, destroyed bridges, roads, schools and infrastructure in villages and towns. The government, meanwhile, worked tirelessly in bringing together the world and international organizations to condemn the assault against Lebanon.

- Seven-point plan -

Along with the cabinet and effective role of the president, I presented to world leaders and the Security Council solutions to end the war against Lebanon. The government adopted a seven-point plan that I proposed at the Rome conference. The plan was adopted by the Security Council as part of its international resolution for a ceasefire.

The Security Council issued resolution 1701 and the war ended. The displaced returned to their homes and villages starting August 14, 2006. The reconstruction plan of infrastructure and destroyed and damaged buildings was carried out with the highest level of competence, credibility, efficiency and speed in due to the generous aid offered by Arab states, especially the Gulf, and friendly countries. Lebanon could rely on these countries after the trust that the government consolidated and built with all brothers and friends.

And so, Lebanon rose again and prospered. It went on to resume its natural Arab and international role. From 2007 and 2010, Lebanon achieved the highest growth rate in its history and over a four-year period. It achieved a major surplus in its balance of payments and a very positive surplus in its foreign currency reserves in the Central Bank. It also achieved a major relative drop in its public debt.

- Unity of arenas without foundation -

In contrast, what happened on October 8, 2023, was a result of Hezbollah’s vision of the “unity of arenas”. It took its actions alone and at its own responsibility without informing or the knowledge of the legitimate authorities in Lebanon. It opened the southern Lebanese front with occupied Palestine without also taking into consideration the very dire circumstances that Lebanon has been and still continues to endure.

The very next day I issued a statement stressing that Lebanon will not and cannot be dragged into such a military battle. I listed five fundamental reasons: the national and political crisis caused by the vacuum in the presidency, failure to form a responsible government, the stifling economic crisis, the Syrian refugee crisis and Lebanon’s loss of close ties with its Arab fold and loss of the Arab and international safety net that protected it in 2006. Added to that is the majority of the Lebanese people’s lack of sympathy or support of Hezbollah’s military operation.

Now, resolution 1701 has not been implemented as it should, and the UN and Security Council have not played their role in ensuring the implementation of all international resolutions related to Lebanon and the Palestinian cause. Israel has proven that it does not want just and lasting peace in the region. It does not recognize international law, international legitimacy or human rights. It has been running rampant in genocide, killing, and destruction in Gaza and the West Bank. Now, it has its sights on Lebanon where it is killing civilians and displacing the people, destroying homes and infrastructure and abusing modern technology.

- Nation searches for heroes -

Now, we are where we are, facing obstacles to outlets that can help Lebanon out of this Israeli aggression. I believe that certain officials in Lebanon can play a major national role in the absence of a president. I believe these figures are Nabih Berri, the parliament speaker, and Najib Mikati, the caretaker prime minister. They must intensify their efforts and earn this heroic role. All dutiful officials must save Lebanon and take the initiative to help it through adopting the following six points:

First, national duty demands that all Lebanese people come together and act according to a unified basis and national fraternity. The entire Lebanese population condemns this barbaric Israeli aggression that is targeting the whole of Lebanon and its structure, which cannot tolerate the idea of no victor and no vanquished.

Second, solutions in Lebanon can only be reached through unifying national proposals that are based on the full implementation of the Taif Accord and Lebanese constitution. They should adhere to the state and its authority. The state is independent and it alone is responsible for protecting the nation and its sovereignty and its people and their security and stability.

Third, the Israeli aggression is targeting the whole of Lebanon and all the Lebanese people. No one wants this attack and sees in it an opportunity to back their political position. So, efforts should be focused on supporting the state and allowing it to take control and assume responsibility, bringing together the people so that their sole concern would be saving Lebanon and helping it out of this dangerous crisis that is threatening their nation, their unity and their fate.

Fourth, the Security Council must issue a resolution for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon. It must assume its responsibilities in preserving international peace and security through obligating all parties to fully and immediately implement resolution 1701 and respect all relevant resolutions.

Fifth, Speaker Berri must call parliament to convene to discuss the dangers that are looming around the Lebanese state and people. The parliament must ensure the preservation of the Lebanese entity, respect the constitution, and preserve Lebanon’s unity and territorial integrity. Berri must call for the election of a new president without delay.

The president must be able to unite all the people and form a responsible government that would assume the responsibility in implementing resolution 1701 in full. It must work on reviving the state and restoring its sovereignty. It must bolster the role of the Lebanese state in maintaining the country’s independence and freedom.

Sixth, efforts must be exerted with all Arab brothers and the Arab League, as well as all friendly countries and institutions, to offer the necessary and immediate aid to the displaced. The safe return of the displaced must be ensured and the necessary funds for reconstruction must be secured.

This new plight has demonstrated that Lebanon has not learned from the lessons of 2006. It has become exposed in every aspect before the Israeli enemy, which has taken advantage of its superior firepower, air force, technology, intelligence and unlimited support from the international community to kill and destroy. The enemy is still hoping to sow division and strife between the Lebanese people. God willing, this will not happen. The enemy has not shied away from committing massacres and assassinations, the last of which was the killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.

Today, the whole of Lebanon is facing a test. Will the UN and Security Council champion what is right? Will the Lebanese people rally together to defend Lebanon and their right for a dignified and safe life, and teach Israel a lesson in rights, humanity and respect for human rights?

*Fuad Siniora is a Lebanese former prime minister.



Iran Leaders Join Crowds on Tehran’s Streets to Project Control in Wartime

An Iranian flag is seen on a residential building that was damaged by recent strikes at Vahdat town in Karaj, southwest of Tehran on April 3, 2026. (AFP)
An Iranian flag is seen on a residential building that was damaged by recent strikes at Vahdat town in Karaj, southwest of Tehran on April 3, 2026. (AFP)
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Iran Leaders Join Crowds on Tehran’s Streets to Project Control in Wartime

An Iranian flag is seen on a residential building that was damaged by recent strikes at Vahdat town in Karaj, southwest of Tehran on April 3, 2026. (AFP)
An Iranian flag is seen on a residential building that was damaged by recent strikes at Vahdat town in Karaj, southwest of Tehran on April 3, 2026. (AFP)

After more than a month of being stalked by targeted assassinations, Iran's leadership has adopted a new tactic to show it is still in control - with senior officials walking openly in the streets among small crowds who have gathered in support of the regime.

In recent days, Iran's president and foreign minister have separately mixed with groups of several hundred people in central Tehran. On Tuesday, state television aired footage of the two posing for selfies, talking to members of the public and shaking hands with supporters who had gathered in public areas.

According to insiders and analysts, the appearances are part of a calculated effort by Iran's theocratic leadership to project resilience and authority — not only over the vital Strait of Hormuz but also over the population — despite a sustained US-Israeli campaign aimed at "obliterating" it.

One insider close to the hardline establishment said such public outings are intended to show that the regime is "unshaken by strikes and that it remains in control and vigilant" as the war grinds on.

The US-Israeli war ‌on Iran began on ‌February 28 with the killing of veteran Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several senior military ‌commanders ⁠in waves of ⁠strikes that have since continued to target top officials.

Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not been seen in public since taking over on March 8 from his father. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, meanwhile, was removed from Israel's hit list amid mediation efforts last month, including by Pakistan, to bring Tehran and Washington together for talks to end the war.

Talks aimed at ending the war have since appeared to have petered out, as Tehran brands US peace proposals "unrealistic". Against that backdrop, recent public appearances by President Masoud Pezeshkian and Araqchi appear designed to project defiance, if not a convincing display of public support.

A senior Iranian source said officials' public presence demonstrates that "the establishment is not intimidated by Israel's targeted killing of top Iranian ⁠figures".

Asked whether Iran's foreign minister or president were on any sort of kill list, an Israeli ‌military spokesperson, Nadav Shoshani, said on Friday he would not "speak about specific personnel."

NIGHTLY RALLIES TO ‌SHOW RESILIENCE

Despite widespread destruction, Tehran appears emboldened by surviving weeks of intense US-Israeli attacks, firing on Gulf countries hosting US troops and demonstrating its ability ‌to effectively block the Strait of Hormuz.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran, without offering a timeline ‌for ending hostilities. Tehran responded by warning the United States and Israel that "more crushing, broader and more destructive" attacks were in store.

Encouraged by clerical rulers, supporters of the regime take to the streets each night, filling public squares to show loyalty even as bombs rain down across the country.

Analysts say the establishment is also seeking to raise the "political and reputational" cost of the strikes at a time when civilian casualties are deeply disturbing for Iranians.

Omid Memarian, ‌a senior Iran analyst at DAWN, a Washington-based think tank, said the decision to send officials into gatherings reflects a layered strategy, including an effort to sustain the morale of core supporters ⁠at a moment of acute pressure.

"The system ⁠relies heavily on this base; if its supporters withdraw from public space, its ability to project control and authority weakens significantly," Memarian said.

Speaking to state television, some in the crowds voice unwavering loyalty to Iran's leadership; others oppose the bombing of their country regardless of politics; and some have a stake in the system, including government employees, students and others whose livelihoods are tied to it.

Hadi Ghaemi, head of the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran, said the establishment is using such loyal crowds as human shields to raise the cost of any assassination attempts.

"By being in the middle of large crowds they have protections that would make Israeli-American attacks against them very bloody and generate sympathy worldwide," he said.

POTENTIAL PROTESTERS STAY OFF STREETS AT NIGHT

The Islamic republic emerged from a 1979 revolution backed by millions of Iranians. But decades of rule marked by corruption, repression and mismanagement have thinned that support, alienating many ordinary people.

While there has been little sign so far of anti-government protests that erupted in January and abated after a deadly crackdown, the establishment has adopted harsh measures, such as arrests, executions and large-scale deployment of security forces, to prevent any sparks of dissent.

Rights groups have warned about "rushed executions" during wartime after Iran hanged at least seven political prisoners during the war.

"Many potential protesters are frightened by the continuing presence of armed men and violent crowds in the streets and largely stay at home once darkness falls," Ghaemi said.


'Metals of the Future': Copper and Silver Flow Beneath Poland's Surface

Smelter workers process copper at the Glogow plant in southwestern Poland, owned by KGHM. Wojtek RADWANSKI / AFP
Smelter workers process copper at the Glogow plant in southwestern Poland, owned by KGHM. Wojtek RADWANSKI / AFP
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'Metals of the Future': Copper and Silver Flow Beneath Poland's Surface

Smelter workers process copper at the Glogow plant in southwestern Poland, owned by KGHM. Wojtek RADWANSKI / AFP
Smelter workers process copper at the Glogow plant in southwestern Poland, owned by KGHM. Wojtek RADWANSKI / AFP

Thousands of meters beneath the ground, amid suffocating heat, lies one of the keys to Poland's rumbling mining sector -- and the world economy.

Whitish ore, rich in copper and silver, is extracted from the country's depths and exported around the world to fuel technological and energy transitions.

"These are the metals of the future," Ariel Wojciuszkiewicz, a geologist at the Polkowice-Sieroszowice mine in the west of the country, tells AFP, noting that copper and silver are "indispensable for electronic equipment, electric cars, and renewable energy installations".

Driven by the rise of artificial intelligence, renewable energies, and global defense needs, demand for these metals is expected to keep increasing in the future, with copper even being referred to as "red gold" and a "barometer" for world economic development.

Poland, responsible for as much as half of Europe's supply, is one of the industry's key players.

Equipped with a helmet and an emergency breathing device, Wojciuszkiewicz leads AFP journalists through the Polkowice-Sieroszowice mine -- one of three sites operated by KGHM, the Polish metals giant, which also owns local smelters and companies in the Americas.

The 24-hour operation runs at a constant roar as machines grind rock at deafening volumes, its tunnels stretching for hundreds of kilometers beneath Poland's surface.

The world's second-largest silver producer, the KGHM group also supplies between 40 percent and 50 percent of the copper produced in Europe.

Last year, it ranked eighth worldwide in terms of copper extraction volume, behind global giants such as BHP Group, Glencore Plc and Rio Tinto, according to industry statistics.

Global copper demand, already high, is expected to climb by over 40 percent by 2040, according to a 2025 UN Report.

To meet this demand, "it might take 80 new mines and 250 billion dollars in investments by 2030," the organization estimates.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), however, predicts that supply will lag 30 percent behind demand by as early as 2035.

- 1,200 degrees Celsius -

Dependence on copper is growing exponentially across the world economy's most innovative sectors.

"We don't realize how much we are surrounded by copper on all sides," Piotr Krzyzewski, KGHM vice president in charge of finance, explains to AFP.

"An electric car contains 80 kg of copper, compared with 20 kg in a conventional one," he notes, while "a wind turbine contains between four and ten tons of copper per megawatt."

Farther away, at the Glogow smelter, two workers in protective suits, armed with long lances, open huge furnaces where the ore is melted.

They work diligently as sparks fly from metal heated to 1,200C.

Several processing stages later, 99.99 percent pure copper plates, each weighing more than a hundred kilos, are shipped all over the world.

Last year, the KGHM group as a whole generated more than 36 billion zlotys ($9.7 billion) in revenue. Copper production reached 710,000 tons and silver production 1,347 tons, according to the group's annual report, published at the end of March.

No less than half of the silver is used in industry, mainly for electronics, solar panels, and medical applications. The rest goes to jewelery or serves as a safety net and financial asset.

But it is copper, now an irreplaceable metal for the economy, that has become the object of global strategic contention.

"Copper is on the strategic list of critical metals in Europe, the United States, and China," Krzyzewski tells AFP.

The metal's impact on geopolitics is already being noted in real time.

In July, US President Donald Trump announced a 50 percent tariff on copper, eventually limiting the measure to products made with the metal.

To justify his decision, he invoked the need to "defend national security".

"Copper is the second most used material by the Department of Defense!" he said.

- Record prices -

In 2025, copper prices jumped 41.7 percent, before hitting a record high of $14,527.50 a ton in January of this year.

Even in the face of the war in the Middle East and the slowdown of the global economy, the price remains high at about 12,000 dollars per ton.

In this uncertain context, Poland's subsoil appears to be a major asset for the energy sovereignty of the Old Continent.

"It's no longer about the security of our country alone, but the security of all of Europe," Krzyzewski says, adding that KGHM's resources "are still estimated to last for at least 40 years," not counting new exploration and concessions.

But mining consumes enormous amounts of water, making it subject to the effects of global warming and drought.


Trump’s Anger Over Iran Thrusts NATO into Fresh Crisis

A NATO flag flutters at the Tapa military base, Estonia April 30, 2023. (Reuters)
A NATO flag flutters at the Tapa military base, Estonia April 30, 2023. (Reuters)
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Trump’s Anger Over Iran Thrusts NATO into Fresh Crisis

A NATO flag flutters at the Tapa military base, Estonia April 30, 2023. (Reuters)
A NATO flag flutters at the Tapa military base, Estonia April 30, 2023. (Reuters)

The NATO alliance has in recent years survived existential challenges - ranging from the war in Ukraine to multiple bouts of pressure and insults from US President Donald Trump, who has questioned its core mission and threatened to seize Greenland.

But it is the US-Israeli war with Iran, thousands of miles from Europe, that has nearly broken the 76-year-old bloc and threatens to leave it in its weakest state since its creation, say analysts and diplomats.

Trump, enraged that European countries have declined to send their navies to open up the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping following the start of the air war on Feb 28, has declared he is considering withdrawing from the alliance.

"Wouldn't you if you were me?" Trump asked Reuters in a Wednesday interview.

In a speech on Wednesday night, Trump criticized US allies but stopped short of condemning NATO, as many experts thought he might.

But combined with other barbs aimed at Europeans in recent weeks, Trump's comments have provoked unprecedented concern that the US will not come to the aid of European allies should they be attacked, whether or not Washington formally walks away.

The result, say analysts and diplomats, is that the alliance created in the Cold War that has long served as the basic fabric of European security is fraying and the mutual defense agreement at its core is no longer taken as a given.

"This is the worst place (NATO) has been since it was founded," said Max Bergmann, a former State Department official who now leads the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"It's really hard to ‌think of anything that ‌even comes close."

That reality is sinking in for Europeans, who have counted on NATO as a bulwark against an increasingly assertive Russia.

As recently ‌as February, ⁠NATO Secretary-General Mark ⁠Rutte had dismissed the idea of Europe defending itself without the US as a "silly thought." Now, many officials and diplomats consider it the default expectation.

"NATO remains necessary, but we must be capable of thinking of NATO without the Americans," said General Francois Lecointre, who served as France's armed forces chief from 2017 to 2021.

"Whether it should even continue to be called NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization - is a valid question."

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said: “President Trump has made his disappointment with NATO and other allies clear, and as the President emphasized, ‘the United States will remember.’”

A NATO representative did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT

NATO has been challenged before, not least during Trump's first term from 2017 to 2021, when he also considered withdrawing from the alliance.

But while many European officials until recently believed that Trump could be kept on board with pomp and flattery, fewer now hold that belief, according to conversations with dozens of former and current US and European officials.

Trump and his officials have expressed frustration over what they see as NATO's unwillingness to help the United ⁠States in a time of need, including by not directly assisting with the Strait of Hormuz and by restricting US use of some airfields and ‌airspace. US officials have declared NATO cannot be a "one-way street".

European officials counter that they have not received US requests for specific ‌assets for a mission to open the strait and complain that Washington has been inconsistent about whether such a mission would operate during or after the war.

"It's a terrible situation for NATO to be in," said ‌Jamie Shea, a former senior NATO official who is now a senior fellow at the Friends of Europe think tank.

"It is a blow to the allies who, since Trump returned to ‌the White House, have worked hard to show that they are willing and able to take more responsibility (for their own defense)."

Trump's latest comments follow other signs of an increasingly unsteady alliance.

Those include his stepped-up threats in January to wrest Greenland away from Denmark and recent moves by the US that Europeans see as particularly accommodating toward Russia, which NATO defines as its principal security threat.

The administration has remained essentially mum amid reports that Moscow has provided targeting data for Iran to attack US assets in the Middle East and has lifted sanctions on Russian oil in a bid to ease global energy prices that have spiked during the war.

At a meeting of G7 foreign ministers ‌near Paris last week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Kaja Kallas, the foreign policy chief of the European Union, had a tense exchange, according to five people familiar with the matter, underlining the increasingly fraught transatlantic relationship.

Kallas asked when US patience with Russian President Vladimir ⁠Putin would run out over Ukraine peace negotiations, prompting Rubio ⁠to respond with irritation that the US was trying to end the war while also providing support to Ukraine, but the EU was welcome to mediate if it wanted to.

NO GOING BACK

Legally, Trump may lack the authority to withdraw from NATO. Under a law passed in 2023, a US president cannot exit the alliance without the consent of two-thirds of the US Senate, a nearly impossible threshold.

But analysts say that, as commander-in-chief, Trump can decide whether the US military will defend NATO members. Declining to do so could imperil the alliance without a formal withdrawal.

To be sure, not everyone sees the current crisis as existential. One French diplomat described the president's rhetoric as a passing temper tantrum.

Trump has changed his position on NATO before.

In 2024, he said on the campaign trail that he would encourage Putin to attack NATO members that do not pay their fair share on defense. By the last annual NATO summit, in June 2025, the alliance was in his good graces, with Trump delivering a speech effusively praising European leaders as people who "love their countries."

Next week, Rutte, the NATO secretary-general, who has a strong relationship with Trump, is set to visit Washington in an effort to change Trump's view once again.

Analysts say European nations have good reason to keep the US engaged in NATO despite doubts over whether Trump would come to their defense. Among other reasons, the US military provides a range of capabilities NATO can't easily replace, such as satellite intelligence.

Even if Trump and the Europeans find a way to stay together in NATO, diplomats, analysts and officials say, the transatlantic alliance that has been central to the global order since World War Two may never be the same.

"I do think we're turning the page of 80 years of working together," said Julianne Smith, the US ambassador to NATO under Democratic President Joe Biden.

"I don't think it means the end of the transatlantic relationship, but we're on the cusp of something that's going to have a different look and feel to it."