The Truth between Two Wars: July 2006 and October 2023

Lebanese former Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. (Getty Images)
Lebanese former Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. (Getty Images)
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The Truth between Two Wars: July 2006 and October 2023

Lebanese former Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. (Getty Images)
Lebanese former Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. (Getty Images)

The dangerous plight Lebanon endured in 2006 and currently enduring since October 8, 2023, share several similarities and vast differences.

The moment the Israeli enemy carried out its aggression against Lebanon in July 2006 – under the pretext of retaliating to a Hezbollah military operation and kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers – I called cabinet to meet to discuss the danger of the assault and its consequences. We discussed measures that should be taken to protect national security and civilians in areas that were being targeted to prevent the South from being emptied of its people.

I clearly stated that the government was taken by surprise by Hezbollah’s operation. We were unaware of it and did not adopt it. We condemned the Israeli aggression against Lebanon, its sovereignty and people, and urged the need to file an urgent complaint at the United Nations Security Council and demand a ceasefire.

- Distance between the state and party -

The government effectively established a clear distance between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah, allowing it to address the Arab and international communities to help Lebanon and strengthen its perseverance. This also enabled and allowed it to assume its role as the victim – a role Israel had tried to play since that morning of July 12, 2023.

I made sure that the Lebanese state, with all of its elements and means, would be responsible for everything: tackling the outcomes of what happened and what would happen, that it would assume its responsibilities in taking all measures and decisions to protect Lebanon and its people, and that it would provide all the means for their perseverance and protect the displaced Lebanese.

Since that day, the government Serial turned into a tireless national workshop, while members of government formed a united team to defend Lebanon and ensure the functioning of state institutions to allow daily life to continue. Civil society was also entrusted with playing its role in defending Lebanon.

On the external front, and with the cooperation of Lebanon’s foreign minister, daily contacts were intensified with senior world officials, such as the UN secretary-general, heads of fraternal Arab states and friendly influential countries that could impact world decisions. A ceasefire was our primary demand at the Security Council.

At the time, the Israeli enemy continued its war on Lebanon. It targeted vital facilities, destroyed bridges, roads, schools and infrastructure in villages and towns. The government, meanwhile, worked tirelessly in bringing together the world and international organizations to condemn the assault against Lebanon.

- Seven-point plan -

Along with the cabinet and effective role of the president, I presented to world leaders and the Security Council solutions to end the war against Lebanon. The government adopted a seven-point plan that I proposed at the Rome conference. The plan was adopted by the Security Council as part of its international resolution for a ceasefire.

The Security Council issued resolution 1701 and the war ended. The displaced returned to their homes and villages starting August 14, 2006. The reconstruction plan of infrastructure and destroyed and damaged buildings was carried out with the highest level of competence, credibility, efficiency and speed in due to the generous aid offered by Arab states, especially the Gulf, and friendly countries. Lebanon could rely on these countries after the trust that the government consolidated and built with all brothers and friends.

And so, Lebanon rose again and prospered. It went on to resume its natural Arab and international role. From 2007 and 2010, Lebanon achieved the highest growth rate in its history and over a four-year period. It achieved a major surplus in its balance of payments and a very positive surplus in its foreign currency reserves in the Central Bank. It also achieved a major relative drop in its public debt.

- Unity of arenas without foundation -

In contrast, what happened on October 8, 2023, was a result of Hezbollah’s vision of the “unity of arenas”. It took its actions alone and at its own responsibility without informing or the knowledge of the legitimate authorities in Lebanon. It opened the southern Lebanese front with occupied Palestine without also taking into consideration the very dire circumstances that Lebanon has been and still continues to endure.

The very next day I issued a statement stressing that Lebanon will not and cannot be dragged into such a military battle. I listed five fundamental reasons: the national and political crisis caused by the vacuum in the presidency, failure to form a responsible government, the stifling economic crisis, the Syrian refugee crisis and Lebanon’s loss of close ties with its Arab fold and loss of the Arab and international safety net that protected it in 2006. Added to that is the majority of the Lebanese people’s lack of sympathy or support of Hezbollah’s military operation.

Now, resolution 1701 has not been implemented as it should, and the UN and Security Council have not played their role in ensuring the implementation of all international resolutions related to Lebanon and the Palestinian cause. Israel has proven that it does not want just and lasting peace in the region. It does not recognize international law, international legitimacy or human rights. It has been running rampant in genocide, killing, and destruction in Gaza and the West Bank. Now, it has its sights on Lebanon where it is killing civilians and displacing the people, destroying homes and infrastructure and abusing modern technology.

- Nation searches for heroes -

Now, we are where we are, facing obstacles to outlets that can help Lebanon out of this Israeli aggression. I believe that certain officials in Lebanon can play a major national role in the absence of a president. I believe these figures are Nabih Berri, the parliament speaker, and Najib Mikati, the caretaker prime minister. They must intensify their efforts and earn this heroic role. All dutiful officials must save Lebanon and take the initiative to help it through adopting the following six points:

First, national duty demands that all Lebanese people come together and act according to a unified basis and national fraternity. The entire Lebanese population condemns this barbaric Israeli aggression that is targeting the whole of Lebanon and its structure, which cannot tolerate the idea of no victor and no vanquished.

Second, solutions in Lebanon can only be reached through unifying national proposals that are based on the full implementation of the Taif Accord and Lebanese constitution. They should adhere to the state and its authority. The state is independent and it alone is responsible for protecting the nation and its sovereignty and its people and their security and stability.

Third, the Israeli aggression is targeting the whole of Lebanon and all the Lebanese people. No one wants this attack and sees in it an opportunity to back their political position. So, efforts should be focused on supporting the state and allowing it to take control and assume responsibility, bringing together the people so that their sole concern would be saving Lebanon and helping it out of this dangerous crisis that is threatening their nation, their unity and their fate.

Fourth, the Security Council must issue a resolution for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon. It must assume its responsibilities in preserving international peace and security through obligating all parties to fully and immediately implement resolution 1701 and respect all relevant resolutions.

Fifth, Speaker Berri must call parliament to convene to discuss the dangers that are looming around the Lebanese state and people. The parliament must ensure the preservation of the Lebanese entity, respect the constitution, and preserve Lebanon’s unity and territorial integrity. Berri must call for the election of a new president without delay.

The president must be able to unite all the people and form a responsible government that would assume the responsibility in implementing resolution 1701 in full. It must work on reviving the state and restoring its sovereignty. It must bolster the role of the Lebanese state in maintaining the country’s independence and freedom.

Sixth, efforts must be exerted with all Arab brothers and the Arab League, as well as all friendly countries and institutions, to offer the necessary and immediate aid to the displaced. The safe return of the displaced must be ensured and the necessary funds for reconstruction must be secured.

This new plight has demonstrated that Lebanon has not learned from the lessons of 2006. It has become exposed in every aspect before the Israeli enemy, which has taken advantage of its superior firepower, air force, technology, intelligence and unlimited support from the international community to kill and destroy. The enemy is still hoping to sow division and strife between the Lebanese people. God willing, this will not happen. The enemy has not shied away from committing massacres and assassinations, the last of which was the killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.

Today, the whole of Lebanon is facing a test. Will the UN and Security Council champion what is right? Will the Lebanese people rally together to defend Lebanon and their right for a dignified and safe life, and teach Israel a lesson in rights, humanity and respect for human rights?

*Fuad Siniora is a Lebanese former prime minister.



Is Iran Pushing Houthis Toward Military Action Against Washington?

Houthis continue mobilization, fundraising, and declare combat readiness (AP) 
Houthis continue mobilization, fundraising, and declare combat readiness (AP) 
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Is Iran Pushing Houthis Toward Military Action Against Washington?

Houthis continue mobilization, fundraising, and declare combat readiness (AP) 
Houthis continue mobilization, fundraising, and declare combat readiness (AP) 

As US military movements intensify in the Middle East and the possibility of strikes on Iran looms, Yemen’s Houthi group has continued military preparations, mobilizing fighters and establishing new weapons sites.

The Houthi mobilization comes at a time when the group is widely viewed as one of Iran’s most important regional arms for retaliation.

Although the Iran-backed group has not issued any official statement declaring its position on a potential US attack on Iran, its leaders have warned Washington against any military action and against bearing full responsibility for any escalation and its consequences.

They have hinted that any response would be handled in accordance with the group’s senior leadership's assessment, after evaluating developments and potential repercussions.

Despite these signals, some interpret the Houthis’ stance as an attempt to avoid drawing the attention of the current US administration, led by President Donald Trump, to the need for preemptive action in anticipation of a potential Houthi response.

The Trump administration previously launched a military campaign against the group in the spring of last year, inflicting heavy losses.

Islam al-Mansi, an Egyptian researcher specializing in Iranian affairs, said Iran may avoid burning all its cards unless absolutely necessary, particularly given US threats to raise the level of escalation should any Iranian military proxies intervene or take part in a confrontation.

Iran did not resort to using its military proxies during its confrontation with Israel or during a limited US strike last summer because it did not perceive an existential threat, al-Mansi said.

That calculation could change in the anticipated confrontation, potentially prompting Houthi intervention, including targeting US allies, interests, and military forces, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Al-Mansi added that although Iran previously offered, within a negotiating framework, to abandon its regional proxies, including the Houthis, this makes it more likely that Tehran would use them in retaliation, noting that Iran created these groups to defend its territory from afar.

Many intelligence reports suggest that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has discussed with the Houthis the activation of alternative support arenas in a potential US-Iran confrontation, including the use of cells and weapons not previously deployed.

Visible readiness

In recent days, Chinese media outlets cited an unnamed Houthi military commander as saying the group had raised its alert level and carried out inspections of missile launch platforms in several areas across Yemen, including the strategically important Red Sea region.

In this context, Yemeni political researcher Salah Ali Salah said the Houthis would participate in defending Iran against any US attacks, citing the group’s media rhetoric accompanying mass rallies, which openly supports Iran’s right to defend itself.

While this rhetoric maintains some ambiguity regarding Iran, it repeatedly invokes the war in Gaza and renews Houthi pledges to resume military escalation in defense of the besieged enclave’s population, Salah told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He noted that Iran would not have shared advanced and sophisticated military technologies with the Houthis without a high degree of trust in their ability to use them in Iran’s interest.

In recent months, following Israeli strikes on the unrecognized Houthi government and several of its leaders, hardline Houthi figures demonstrating strong loyalty to Iran have become more prominent.

On the ground, the group has established new military sites and moved equipment and weapons to new locations along and near the coast, alongside the potential use of security cells beyond Yemen’s borders.

Salah said that if the threat of a military strike on Iran escalates, the Iranian response could take a more advanced form, potentially including efforts to close strategic waterways, placing the Bab al-Mandab Strait within the Houthis’ target range.

Many observers have expressed concern that the Houthis may have transferred fighters and intelligence cells outside Yemen over recent years to target US and Western interests in the region.

Open options

After a ceasefire was declared in Gaza, the Houthis lost one of their key justifications for mobilizing fighters and collecting funds. The group has since faced growing public anger over its practices and worsening humanitarian conditions, responding with media messaging aimed at convincing audiences that the battle is not over and that further rounds lie ahead.

Alongside weekly rallies in areas under their control in support of Gaza, the Houthis have carried out attacks on front lines with Yemen’s internationally recognized government, particularly in Taiz province.

Some military experts describe these incidents as probing attacks, while others see them as attempts to divert attention from other activities.

In this context, Walid al-Abara, head of the Yemen and Gulf Studies Center, said the Houthis entered a critical phase after the Gaza war ended, having lost one of the main justifications for their attacks on Red Sea shipping.

As a result, they may seek to manufacture new pretexts, including claims of sanctions imposed against them, to maintain media momentum and their regional role.

Al-Abara told Asharq Al-Awsat that the group has two other options. The first is redirecting its activity inward to strengthen its military and economic leverage, either to impose its conditions in any future settlement or to consolidate power.

The second is yielding to international and regional pressure and entering a negotiation track, particularly if sanctions intensify or its economic and military capacity declines.

According to an assessment by the Yemen and Gulf Studies Center, widespread protests in Iran are increasingly pressuring the regime’s ability to manage its regional influence at the same pace as before, without dismantling its network of proxies.

This reality is pushing Tehran toward a more cautious approach, governed by domestic priorities and cost-benefit calculations, while maintaining a minimum level of external influence without broad escalation.

Within this framework, al-Abara said Iran is likely to maintain a controlled continuity in its relationship with the Houthis through selective support that ensures the group remains effective.

However, an expansion of protests or a direct military strike on Iran could open the door to a deeper Houthi repositioning, including broader political and security concessions in exchange for regional guarantees.


The Gaza Ceasefire Began Months Ago. Here’s Why the Fighting Persists

Israeli soldiers and tanks stand in Gaza, as seen from the Israeli side of the Israel-Gaza border, in Israel, February 4, 2026. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Israeli soldiers and tanks stand in Gaza, as seen from the Israeli side of the Israel-Gaza border, in Israel, February 4, 2026. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
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The Gaza Ceasefire Began Months Ago. Here’s Why the Fighting Persists

Israeli soldiers and tanks stand in Gaza, as seen from the Israeli side of the Israel-Gaza border, in Israel, February 4, 2026. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Israeli soldiers and tanks stand in Gaza, as seen from the Israeli side of the Israel-Gaza border, in Israel, February 4, 2026. REUTERS/Amir Cohen

As the bodies of two dozen Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes arrived at hospitals in Gaza on Wednesday, the director of one asked a question that has echoed across the war-ravaged territory for months.

“Where is the ceasefire? Where are the mediators?” Shifa Hospital's Mohamed Abu Selmiya wrote on Facebook.

At least 556 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes since a US-brokered truce came into effect in October, including 24 on Wednesday and 30 on Saturday, according to Gaza's Health Ministry. Four Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza in the same period, with more injured, including a soldier whom the military said was severely wounded when militants opened fire near the ceasefire line in northern Gaza overnight.

Other aspects of the agreement have stalled, including the deployment of an international security force, Hamas' disarmament and the start of Gaza's reconstruction. The opening of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt raised hope of further progress, but fewer than 50 people were allowed to cross on Monday, The Associated Press said.

Hostages freed as other issues languish In October, after months of stalled negotiations, Israel and Hamas accepted a 20-point plan proposed by US President Donald Trump aimed at ending the war unleashed by Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack into Israel.

At the time, Trump said it would lead to a “Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace."

Hamas freed all the living hostages it still held at the outset of the deal in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel and the remains of others.

But the larger issues the agreement sought to address, including the future governance of the strip, were met with reservations, and the US offered no firm timeline.

The return of the remains of hostages meanwhile stretched far beyond the 72-hour timeline outlined in the agreement. Israel recovered the body of the last hostage only last week, after accusing Hamas and other militant groups of violating the ceasefire by failing to return all of the bodies. The militants said they were unable to immediately locate all the remains because of the massive destruction caused by the war — a claim Israel rejected.

The ceasefire also called for an immediate influx of humanitarian aid, including equipment to clear rubble and rehabilitate infrastructure. The United Nations and humanitarian groups say aid deliveries to Gaza's 2 million Palestinians have fallen short due to customs clearance problems and other delays. COGAT, the Israeli military body overseeing aid to Gaza, has called the UN's claims “simply a lie.”

Ceasefire holds despite accusations

Violence has sharply declined since the ceasefire paused a war in which more than 71,800 Palestinians have been killed, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. The ministry is part of the Hamas-led government and maintains detailed records seen as generally reliable by UN agencies and independent experts.

Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people in the initial October 2023 attack and took around 250 hostage.

Both sides say the agreement is still in effect and use the word “ceasefire” in their communications. But Israel accuses Hamas fighters of operating beyond the truce line splitting Gaza in half, threatening its troops and occasionally opening fire, while Hamas accuses Israeli forces of gunfire and strikes on residential areas far from the line.

Palestinians have called on US and Arab mediators to get Israel to stop carrying out deadly strikes, which often kill civilians. Among those killed on Wednesday were five children, including two babies. Hamas, which accuses Israel of hundreds of violations, called it a “grave circumvention of the ceasefire agreement.”

In a joint statement on Sunday, eight Arab and Muslim countries condemned Israel’s actions since the agreement took effect and urged restraint from all sides “to preserve and sustain the ceasefire.”

Israel says it is responding to daily violations committed by Hamas and acting to protect its troops. “While Hamas’ actions undermine the ceasefire, Israel remains fully committed to upholding it,” the military said in a statement on Wednesday.

“One of the scenarios the (military) has to be ready for is Hamas is using a deception tactic like they did before October 7 and rearming and preparing for an attack when it’s comfortable for them,” said Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesperson.

Some signs of progress

The return of the remains of the last hostage, the limited opening of the Rafah crossing, and the naming of a Palestinian committee to govern Gaza and oversee its reconstruction showed a willingness to advance the agreement despite the violence.

Last month, US envoy Steve Witkoff, who played a key role in brokering the truce, said it was time for “transitioning from ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction.”

That will require Israel and Hamas to grapple with major issues on which they have been sharply divided, including whether Israel will fully withdraw from Gaza and Hamas will lay down its arms.

Though political leaders are holding onto the term “ceasefire” and have yet to withdraw from the process, there is growing despair in Gaza.

On Saturday, Atallah Abu Hadaiyed heard explosions in Gaza City during his morning prayers and ran outside to find his cousins lying on the ground as flames curled around them.

“We don’t know if we’re at war or at peace,” he said from a displacement camp, as tarpaulin strips blew off the tent behind him.


What to Know as Iran and US Set for Nuclear Talks in Oman

The flags of USA and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. EPA/ALI HAIDER
The flags of USA and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. EPA/ALI HAIDER
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What to Know as Iran and US Set for Nuclear Talks in Oman

The flags of USA and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. EPA/ALI HAIDER
The flags of USA and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. EPA/ALI HAIDER

Iran and the United States will hold talks Friday in Oman, their latest over Tehran's nuclear program after Israel launched a 12-day war on the country in June and Iran launched a bloody crackdown on nationwide protests.

US President Donald Trump has kept up pressure on Iran, suggesting America could attack Iran over the killing of peaceful demonstrators or if Tehran launches mass executions over the protests. Meanwhile, Trump has pushed Iran's nuclear program back into the frame as well after the June war disrupted five rounds of talks held in Rome and Muscat, Oman, last year.

Trump began the diplomacy initially by writing a letter last year to Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to jump start these talks. Khamenei has warned Iran would respond to any attack with an attack of its own, particularly as the theocracy he commands reels following the protests.

Here’s what to know about Iran’s nuclear program and the tensions that have stalked relations between Tehran and Washington since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

Trump writes letter to Khamenei Trump dispatched the letter to Khamenei on March 5, 2025, then gave a television interview the next day in which he acknowledged sending it. He said: “I’ve written them a letter saying, ‘I hope you’re going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily, it’s going to be a terrible thing.’”

Since returning to the White House, the president has been pushing for talks while ratcheting up sanctions and suggesting a military strike by Israel or the US could target Iranian nuclear sites.

A previous letter from Trump during his first term drew an angry retort from the supreme leader.

But Trump’s letters to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in his first term led to face-to-face meetings, though no deals to limit Pyongyang’s atomic bombs and a missile program capable of reaching the continental US.

Oman mediated previous talks

Oman, a sultanate on the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula, has mediated talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff. The two men have met face to face after indirect talks, a rare occurrence due to the decades of tensions between the countries.

It hasn't been all smooth, however. Witkoff at one point made a television appearance in which he suggested 3.67% enrichment for Iran could be something the countries could agree on. But that’s exactly the terms set by the 2015 nuclear deal struck under former President Barack Obama, from which Trump unilaterally withdrew America. Witkoff, Trump and other American officials in the time since have maintained Iran can have no enrichment under any deal, something to which Tehran insists it won't agree.

Those negotiations ended, however, with Israel launching the war in June on Iran.

The 12-day war and nationwide protests Israel launched what became a 12-day war on Iran in June that included the US bombing Iranian nuclear sites. Iran later acknowledged in November that the attacks saw it halt all uranium enrichment in the country, though inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency have been unable to visit the bombed sites.

Iran soon experienced protests that began in late December over the collapse of the country's rial currency. Those demonstrations soon became nationwide, sparking Tehran to launch a bloody crackdown that killed thousands and saw tens of thousands detained by authorities.

Iran’s nuclear program worries the West Iran has insisted for decades that its nuclear program is peaceful. However, its officials increasingly threaten to pursue a nuclear weapon. Iran now enriches uranium to near weapons-grade levels of 60%, the only country in the world without a nuclear weapons program to do so.

Under the original 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium up to 3.67% purity and to maintain a uranium stockpile of 300 kilograms (661 pounds). The last report by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran’s program put its stockpile at some 9,870 kilograms (21,760 pounds), with a fraction of it enriched to 60%.

US intelligence agencies assess that Iran has yet to begin a weapons program, but has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.” Iranian officials have threatened to pursue the bomb.

Decades of tense relations between Iran and the US Iran was once one of the US’s top allies in the Mideast under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who purchased American military weapons and allowed CIA technicians to run secret listening posts monitoring the neighboring Soviet Union. The CIA had fomented a 1953 coup that cemented the shah’s rule.

But in January 1979, the shah, fatally ill with cancer, fled Iran as mass demonstrations swelled against his rule. The Iranian Revolution followed, led by Grand Khomeini, and created Iran’s theocratic government.

Later that year, university students overran the US Embassy in Tehran, seeking the shah’s extradition and sparking the 444-day hostage crisis that saw diplomatic relations between Iran and the US severed.

The Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s saw the US back Saddam Hussein. The “Tanker War” during that conflict saw the US launch a one-day assault that crippled Iran at sea, while the US later shot down an Iranian commercial airliner that the US military said it mistook for a warplane.

Iran and the US have seesawed between enmity and grudging diplomacy in the years since, with relations peaking when Tehran made the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. But Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018, sparking tensions in the Mideast that persist today.