IMF Says International Community Should Provide Grants to Lebanonhttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5074947-imf-says-international-community-should-provide-grants-lebanon
IMF Says International Community Should Provide Grants to Lebanon
Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs, after an Israeli strike, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon October 25, 2024. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
IMF Says International Community Should Provide Grants to Lebanon
Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs, after an Israeli strike, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon October 25, 2024. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
The international community should work to end the conflict in the Middle East and provide grants to Lebanon, the head of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia department has said.
Jihad Azour spoke to AFP in Washington, where the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are currently taking place.
In updated economic estimates, the Fund slightly downgraded its outlook for economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa to 2.1 percent this year, while maintaining its 4.0 percent growth outlook for 2025.
However, these estimates do not take into account the economic impact of the recent escalation of conflict in southern Lebanon, where Israel has invaded to fight Hezbollah.
Azour, a former Lebanese finance minister, noted that the most severely affected places, including Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, were facing a "huge humanitarian problem" which has devastated their economies.
"You have massive loss in output, you have a massive destruction in infrastructure, and you have a huge set of needs for additional spending, for shelter, for health and so on," he said.
"We expect that growth will be negative in those cases, and we expect that the recovery would take longer to materialize," he added.
The IMF has suspended its forecasts for the Lebanese economy, citing an "unusually high degree of uncertainty." But a recent United Nations Development report estimated that the country's GDP would be 9.2 percent smaller as a "direct consequence" of the conflict.
"You have massive destruction of infrastructure in a large region, which is the south, and mass destruction of livelihood, because this is an agricultural region that was severely affected," Azour said, adding that almost 20 percent of Lebanon's population had been displaced.
"We encourage the international community, we encourage the friends of Lebanon, to provide grants," he continued, calling on the international community "to put its utmost effort in order to solve the problem, in order to reduce the suffering of people."
For countries indirectly affected by the conflict, like Jordan and Egypt, the impact of Israel's ongoing military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon has been felt differently.
While Egypt has been hit hard by a 70 percent fall in revenues from ships traversing the Suez Canal, Jordan's economy has suffered from a steep decline in tourism, Azour said.
China’s Factory Activity Shrinks in October, Third Contraction in Four Monthshttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5335876-china%E2%80%99s-factory-activity-shrinks-october-third-contraction-four-months
Women shop for fashion accessories at a bazaar held in a popular shopping district in Beijing, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026. (AP)
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China’s Factory Activity Shrinks in October, Third Contraction in Four Months
Women shop for fashion accessories at a bazaar held in a popular shopping district in Beijing, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026. (AP)
China's factory activity dropped in October, its third contraction in four months, a government survey showed on Saturday, hurt by soft demand goods at home as well as signs of weakness in exports.
Economists called on the government to do more to support growth after the figures, which highlighted how exports, which have powered higher for much of this year, may not have sufficient strength to offset long-stagnant consumer spending.
"Insufficient demand is increasing downward pressure on the economy," said Zhang Liqun, an analyst with the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.3 from 50.1 in September, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. That missed a forecast for 50.0 from a Reuters poll, though the first month of a quarter is typically the weakest.
China's trade surplus with the world is on track to top last year's $1.2 trillion due to strength in exports. But in October, factory activity weakened as overseas Christmas-related orders, which were front-loaded in September, cooled. It was also hurt when consumer spending, which climbed during China's long National Day holiday in the first week of October, fizzled out afterwards.
Sub-indexes for new orders overall and for new export orders both stayed in contraction territory in October. Production and purchasing activity also slipped into contraction from expansion.
MORE SUBSIDIES COULD HELP
Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said that if external demand weakens in 2027, "China will need more significant policy support to boost domestic demand."
Lu Zhe, chief economist at Soochow Securities, called for expanding subsidies for mortgage interest payments "to shore up household confidence and anchor sentiment."
He added that extending subsidies for loan interest payments to investment projects would help alleviate the current shortage of viable fixed-asset investments.
The non-manufacturing PMI, which covers services and construction, also dropped, to 49.7 from 50.2 in September.
The readings are compiled based on purchasing managers' reports about whether conditions improved, worsened or were unchanged in areas such as new orders, output and employment compared with the previous month. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while one below 50 indicates contraction.
Some sectors within manufacturing were doing well.
Production and new orders sub-indexes for railway, shipbuilding, aerospace equipment, and computer, communications and electronics manufacturing were all at or above 53.0, the survey showed.
AI-related firms in particular have reported strong earnings growth. Zhongji Innolight, a maker of high-speed optical modules that connect servers and switches in AI data centers, posted a near tripling in third-quarter net profit.
But the lackluster domestic market and rising costs have weighed on many old-school manufacturers and property-linked firms. Custom furniture maker Oppein Home, for example, saw net profit plunge 80% during the quarter.
China's economy is, however, expected to meet the country's 4.5-5.0% annual growth target without additional stimulus measures after third-quarter growth rebounded to 4.5% from 4.3% in April-June.
15% Capital Requirement Complicates Restructuring of Lebanese Bankshttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5335851-15-capital-requirement-complicates-restructuring-lebanese-banks
15% Capital Requirement Complicates Restructuring of Lebanese Banks
A Lebanese delegation, led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, meets with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Washington in September. (X)
Talks that concluded in Paris on Thursday between Lebanon’s central bank, the Banking Control Commission and representatives of Lebanese banks revealed persistent differences over banking sector restructuring and the distribution of losses, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) insists on a 15% capital adequacy ratio for banks seeking to remain operational, to be achieved within five to seven years.
According to information obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat, the meetings were hosted by Rothschild, the international adviser to Banque du Liban (BDL), in an effort to reconcile differing approaches to the provisions of the draft Financial Regularization and Deposit Recovery Law.
The discussions produced new proposals involving relatively minor changes in form but a more substantive approach to the draft law submitted by the government to Parliament late last year. The proposals are expected to influence subsequent stages of the legislative process.
However, efforts to bridge the differences were not matched by any shift in the IMF’s position. The Fund’s delegation reportedly maintained its firm stance on limiting the use of public funds and upholding the hierarchy of loss absorption, under which bank capital, shareholders and equity holders are first in line to bear losses.
Against this backdrop, the IMF has introduced an additional requirement, informing banking executives that operating banks must restructure their capital positions to achieve a 15% capital adequacy ratio as a key condition for remaining in business.
A source familiar with the matter told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Fund had stipulated a period of five to seven years from the start of restructuring to meet the requirement.
Although the proposed ratio is substantially higher than the requirements set under Basel III standards, the IMF argues that it is necessary for the banking sector, together with BDL as its regulator, to demonstrate a serious commitment to addressing the consequences of Lebanon’s unprecedented financial crisis.
The aim is to emerge from the crisis with a financial sector in the strongest possible position, paving the way for the restoration of international confidence.
Lebanese banks, however, face considerable difficulties persuading existing shareholders to inject such large amounts of private capital within a relatively short period.
Shareholders remain reluctant to commit fresh funds before negotiations produce a final agreement with the IMF, the government meets structural reform requirements in the public sector, a medium-term fiscal plan is adopted, and the outcome of Lebanon’s Eurobond restructuring becomes clear.
The Lebanese Central Bank building in Beirut. (AP)
What is required of banks?
An initial assessment by Asharq Al-Awsat indicates that meeting the IMF’s requirement would entail substantial cash injections and capital contributions or the attraction of new investors, a task that appears nearly impossible under current conditions.
Preliminary estimates suggest the funds required could amount to twice banks’ current capital, which has fallen sharply from levels exceeding $20 billion as a result of the Lebanese pound’s collapse.
The challenge comes as Lebanon and its economy face an exceptional contraction in investment inflows because of wars and the financial losses and heavy reconstruction costs they have left behind.
These burdens add to a financial gap that the government estimates at approximately $70 billion.
Insistence on this approach could undermine the banking sector’s prospects for recovery and its ability to contribute effectively to the broader economic rebound, given the difficulty most banks would face in injecting or attracting capital on such a scale.
Banking officials argue that the approach fails to account for the state’s role and responsibility in drawing financing from BDL’s balance sheet.
They also point out that a government decision to suspend repayment of all obligations on Lebanon’s Eurobonds deprived both commercial banks and the central bank of access to vital financial assets.
Meanwhile, a financial official noted that BDL’s handling of the consequences of the financial and monetary collapse, which have been concentrated heavily in the banking system, requires realism and a balance between two interconnected principles: ensuring a fair distribution of losses and avoiding the sacrifice of financial institutions.
This includes restructuring banks’ balance sheets and capital positions while enabling them to make the greatest possible contribution toward the gradual repayment of depositors’ claims, in accordance with the distribution mechanism established under existing central bank circulars.
Before the crises erupted, BDL imposed stringent solvency requirements on operating banks, with average ratios exceeding 15%.
Bank managements also voluntarily adhered strictly to international professional standards for assessing capital adequacy, enabling Lebanese banks to achieve leading regional positions in covering credit, market and operational risks.
Their risk management practices also included measuring and monitoring other exposures, such as interest rate risk in the banking book, credit concentration, liquidity and reputational risks.
Rothschild serves as BDL’s international adviser in negotiations concerning the financial sector, while Lazard performs the same role for Lebanon’s Finance Ministry.
US Oil Companies Aim to Squeeze More Out of Refinerieshttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5335839-us-oil-companies-aim-squeeze-more-out-refineries
ExxonMobil said its refinery in Baytown, Texas is one of the plants being targeted to boost supply of petroleum products. Brandon Bell / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File
US Oil Companies Aim to Squeeze More Out of Refineries
ExxonMobil said its refinery in Baytown, Texas is one of the plants being targeted to boost supply of petroleum products. Brandon Bell / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File
US oil companies are investing to squeeze out more fuel from refineries and bringing shuttered plants back online in response to conflicts in Russia and Iran that have crimped supplies.
ExxonMobil Chief Executive Darren Woods said Friday the company had achieved "record fuels utilization" outside of the Middle East, pointing to 100 percent crude utilization at US Gulf Coast refineries.
The statements come as US gasoline prices remain above the politically sensitive $4 per gallon level and as diesel prices linger near all-time highs above $6 per gallon.
"In the third quarter, we continued to rise to the challenge of meeting global energy needs," Woods said in a press release.
But Woods told analysts on an earnings conference call that there were a "lot of variables" behind the crunch in supply of diesel and other key refined items. Besides lost capacity in the Middle East and Russia from Ukrainian drone strikes, Woods cited a decline in Chinese refined output.
"My guess would be it will take certainly well through to next year before we see things getting back closer to normal," he said. "But it could be longer than that."
US rival Chevron said it achieved record throughput at refineries during the quarter.
"We're reinvesting to bring more energy to a supply-constrained market," said Chief Executive Mike Wirth.
But about 10 percent of the world's refining capacity remains off line, said Chevron Vice Chairman Mark Nelson.
"I would expect margins to eventually moderate as refinery runs recover and export flows increase," Nelson said on a conference call. "But that will take some time."
Both companies reported a more than doubling of quarterly profits Friday as oil giants reap financial rewards from spiking commodity prices and refinery margins. Steep price increases and supply shortfalls in some cases have sparked protests in parts of Asia, Latin America and Europe.
- Russian refining hit -
Executives have pointed to a cutback in output from Asian plants as Iran's blockage of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has taken key crude oil off the market.
Another factor has been attacks by Ukraine on Russian plants, which had accounted for 6.5 percent of global refining capacity in 2025, according to KPMG.
The International Energy Agency said in September that just five Russian refineries remain unaffected by a barrage of drone attacks launched by Ukraine since the Russian invasion in 2022.
Russia's normal volume of 6.5 million barrels a day at 32 refineries had fallen to just 3.8 million barrels per day, its lowest level in 20 years, according to the IEA.
An October 21 report from Rystad Energy warned that Russia could become a net importer of gasoline and diesel in 2027.
On Friday, Russia's deputy prime minister for energy issues, Alexander Novak, told a reporter from state TV that Ukraine had resumed attacks on Russian plants, hitting three oil refineries and one gas-chemical complex.
On Friday, ExxonMobil's profits for the third quarter came in at $15.4 billion, slightly more than double the $7.5 billion in the year-ago period, while Chevron's profits were $9.9 billion, compared with $3.5 billion in the year-ago quarter.
But surging prices of gasoline and diesel have become a political albatross for US President Donald Trump, whose administration has pressed oil companies to take actions to soften the blow on consumers.
The US oil companies pointed Friday to steps to boost capacity. ExxonMobil spent around $17 billion on refining to boost capacity, including expansions at a plant in Beaumont, Texas, with work ongoing at another plant in Baytown, Texas.
Such investments are expected to add 100,000 barrels per day of additional distillate capacity, Woods said.
US refiner Valero Energy announced Friday that it reached a deal to acquire a shuttered Houston refinery from LyondellBasell for $320.5 million. It plans an initial restart by the end of 2027.
"This acquisition is a unique opportunity to strategically expand Valero's US Gulf Coast footprint at a fraction of replacement value and enhance the long-term strength of our refining system," said Valero CEO Lane Riggs.
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