Arab Financial Markets Improve Amid Trump Inauguration

A Saudi dealer monitors the stock market in Riyadh. (Reuters)
A Saudi dealer monitors the stock market in Riyadh. (Reuters)
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Arab Financial Markets Improve Amid Trump Inauguration

A Saudi dealer monitors the stock market in Riyadh. (Reuters)
A Saudi dealer monitors the stock market in Riyadh. (Reuters)

Arab financial markets reacted positively to the inauguration of US President Donald Trump for a new term on Monday, despite concerns from some nations about the tariffs he plans to impose. The tariffs are expected to affect global trade flows and pricing.

Trump’s swearing-in also coincided with the start of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas on Sunday, which is set to have a favorable impact on market sentiment.

Experts told Asharq Al-Awsat that easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has played a role in boosting economic stability across Arab markets. They anticipate significant improvements in market performance throughout the region, particularly in the Gulf, in the near future—raising optimism for robust economic growth.

Mohammed Al-Farraj, Senior Head of Asset Management at Arbah Capital, noted that global economic forecasts point to noticeable improvement following Trump’s inauguration.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Farraj attributed this optimism to several key factors, including heightened political stability, strengthened supply chains, and supportive monetary and fiscal policies introduced by the new US administration.

The gradual reduction of tariffs on US imports is expected to have a major impact on the labor market and inflation, fostering a more stable and growth-friendly economic environment for Arab markets, particularly those in the Gulf, he went on to say. The Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) is poised to lead this growth.

Dr. Salem Baajajah, an economic expert and academic at King Abdulaziz University, told Asharq Al-Awsat that Trump’s inauguration is likely to generate substantial gains for US markets due to his pro-growth policies. This, in turn, will positively influence global financial markets, especially in the Gulf.

Reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—along with the Gaza truce and prisoner exchange agreements—have further strengthened economic stability across Arab markets, he added.

Meanwhile, most Arab and Gulf stock markets closed higher on Monday, achieving varying levels of gains.

The Saudi Stock Exchange’s main index (TASI) ended Monday’s session up by 0.40%, closing at 12,379 points—its highest level since May 8. The increase was driven by a 4.4% rise in Aqua Power shares, while Aramco, the heaviest-weighted stock on the index, remained flat at SAR 28.15.

The Qatari index climbed 0.40% to close at 10,508 points, supported by a 2.2% rise in Industries Qatar shares. Kuwait’s index rose by 0.53%, while the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange saw a modest increase of 0.08%.

Dubai’s main index, however, declined by 0.30%, impacted by a 2.9% drop in Salik shares. Similarly, Bahrain’s index fell slightly by 0.08%.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index slipped 0.37%, weighed down by a 0.9% decline in shares of Commercial International Bank. Morocco’s Casablanca Stock Exchange index dropped by 0.33%. Conversely, Oman’s Muscat Stock Exchange posted a slight gain of 0.03%.



Dollar Recovers as Trump Proposes Canada, Mexico Tariffs

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
TT

Dollar Recovers as Trump Proposes Canada, Mexico Tariffs

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The US dollar rose on Tuesday, recovering from its biggest daily percentage drop in 14 months after President Donald Trump suggested the US could impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico by Feb. 1, countering expectations he might take a gradual approach.

Trump told reporters he was thinking about implementing tariffs of around 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico at the start of February over illegal immigrants and fentanyl crossing into the country. He also raised the possibility of a universal tariff but said the US was "not ready" for that yet.

The dollar fell sharply on Monday after Trump's first day in office passed with no specific plans on tariffs and officials said any new taxes would be imposed in a measured way, a major relief for trade-exposed currencies, Reuters reported.

"What you're seeing here, too, is just how crowded long dollar positioning is, so all you need is some ambiguity on the tariff front, and you get these kind of moves," said Erik Bregar, director, FX & precious metals risk management, at Silver Gold Bull in Toronto.

"The bigger outside moves are going to come now if we see some deals happening, some stuff being negotiated and some of this fear getting priced out. The dollar positioning is long enough that you're going to see some smart people trying to bet on a turn."

The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.32% to 108.33 after dropping 1.24% on Monday. It was up as much as 0.68% earlier in the session.

The euro was down 0.22% at $1.0391. The EU is also seen as a likely target for Trump's tariff policies. Sterling weakened 0.26% to $1.2291.

Talking to reporters on Monday, Trump said he would remedy the trade imbalance either through tariffs or by Europe buying more US oil and gas.

A subsequent trade memo directed agencies to investigate and remedy persistent trade deficits. Analysts at Jefferies said the memo should be seen as a "blueprint for what to expect next on tariffs," and April 1 will be an important date as the agency reports are due by that date.

The Canadian dollar weakened 0.8% versus the greenback to C$1.44 per dollar while the Mexican peso was down 0.86% versus the dollar at 20.698.

The inauguration speech focused on emergencies in immigration and energy and a more expansionist foreign policy, including a pledge to take back the Panama Canal.

In his first term in office, Trump had a history of announcing imminent plans for policy proposals, including on healthcare and infrastructure, only for nothing to take shape.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.11% to 155.42.

The yen has strengthened against the dollar in three of the last four sessions, supported by growing expectations the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates on Friday.

Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said on Tuesday at a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker event that a weak yen would increase inflation by boosting import costs. Mimura said the government and the central bank were communicating closely every day through various channels.

Markets are pricing an 86.2% chance of a quarter-point increase.

The dollar strengthened 0.23% against the offshore Chinese yuan to 7.278. Trump has threatened China with tariffs of up to 60% but did not detail any plans on Monday.

Beijing later set a stronger fix for the yuan, suggesting it was still inclined to take steps to prop up the currency.