Western officials have said Iran will receive a severe blow if it continues to reject US President Donald Trump’s calls for talks over its nuclear program.
The warning came while Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to “close the Strait of Hormuz” and invited countries in the region to participate in military drills.
“I would advise Iran not to gamble on war. Negotiation, as Trump has put on the table, is a much wiser option,” former US Ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, wrote on X.
He commented on the video of a large underground missile base that Tehran recently released, saying the “intention clearly is to convince Trump that a war with Iran would be risky because it has the ability to survive an initial attack and still to hit targets near and far.”
Khalilzad added: “But can Iran's command and control survive an attack and then go on to make decisions about targets to hit in retaliation, successfully execute those decisions, and inflict largescale damage? This is very much in question.”
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a research institute based in London, said the letter-writing between Tehran and Washington showed that both sides were “sizing each other up and finding different channels, some public and many private, to define what they can achieve.”
“This is an opportunity for both sides,” she added, “but it comes with a thousand risks and challenges,” according to The New York Times.
“Iran is at a crossroad, between having an off ramp or being militarily hit,” said Vakil. “It’s a year of really consequential decisions, and how they play their hand could give them a lifeline or lead to further strikes and weakening of the government.”
Trump threatened Iran on Friday with “very bad” repercussions if it continues to reject talks with the US over its nuclear program.
“I don’t say this through strength or weakness, but my big preference is we work it out with Iran. But if we don't work it out, bad bad things are going to happen to Iran,” Trump told reporters at the White House during a swearing-in ceremony.
The Iranian state news agency IRNA reported on Thursday, citing the Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, that Iran has sent a response through Oman to Trump's letter that had urged it to reach a new nuclear deal.
Tehran reiterated its stance on not negotiating directly while under pressure, but is open to indirect talks, Araqchi was reported as saying.
No details have been released of the Iranian response but Iranian officials confirmed that they sent a “balanced” message, refusing threats to strike their country.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Friday: “If the United States carries out its military threat against Iran due to the failure to reach a new nuclear agreement, its bases in the region will not be safe.”
He added: “Any attack on Iran will mean the explosion of the entire region,” according to Tasnim, a news agency affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
For his part, IRGC Navy Commander Alireza Tanksiri warned on Saturday “foreign powers” of harming Iran's interests.
“If foreigners attempt to attack us, pressure us, or endanger our interests, we will stand against them with full force,” he said, according to Tasnim.
He emphasized that “Iran does not seek war but will respond firmly to any aggression.”
Regarding the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, he said: “The decision rests with the top leadership, but the responsibility for carrying it out lies with me.”
Tanksiri added that if Iran’s rights are denied, “the decision to close the strait will be made, and we will carry it out based on higher directives.”
He also revealed that “Iran has invited Arab countries to participate in military exercises,” noting the presence of representatives from “the UAE, Qatar, Iraq, and Kuwait.”
