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Oil Slumps 3% as Trump's Tariffs Expected to Impede Demand

FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
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Oil Slumps 3% as Trump's Tariffs Expected to Impede Demand

FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo

Oil prices fell by over 3% on Thursday after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs which investors worry will enflame a global trade war that will curtail economic growth and limit fuel demand.

Brent futures were down $2.66, or 3.55%, to $72.29 a barrel by 0918 GMT US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $2.69, or 3.75%, to $69.02.

Trump on Wednesday unveiled a 10% minimum tariff on most goods imported to the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, with much higher duties on products from dozens of countries, initiating a global trade war that threatens to drive up inflation and stall US and worldwide economic growth, Reuters reported.

"The US tariff announcement clearly caught markets off guard. Pre-announcement speculation suggested a flat 15-20% tariff, but the final decision was more hawkish," Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, said in an email.

"For oil prices, the focus now shifts to the global growth outlook, which is likely to be revised downward due to these higher-than-expected tariffs," he added.

Imports of oil, gas and refined products were exempted from the new tariffs, the White House said on Wednesday.

UBS analysts on Wednesday cut their oil forecasts by $3 per barrel over 2025-26 to $72 per barrel, citing weaker fundamentals.

Traders and analysts now expect more price volatility in the near term, as the tariffs may change as countries try to negotiate lower rates or impose retaliatory levies.

"Countermeasures are imminent and judging by the initial market reaction, recession and stagflation have become terrifying possibilities," said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.

"As tariffs are ultimately paid for by domestic consumers and businesses, their cost will inevitably increase impeding the rise in economic wealth."

In other news, US Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday showed US crude inventories rose by a surprisingly large 6.2 million barrels last week, against analysts' forecasts for a decline of 2.1 million barrels.

Market participants are also awaiting the outcome of an OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, which will discuss Kazakh output.

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China Exempts Some Goods from US Tariffs to Limit trade War Pain

TOPSHOT - An aerial view shows cargo containers stacked at a port in Shanghai on April 20, 2025. (Photo by AFP) / China OUT
TOPSHOT - An aerial view shows cargo containers stacked at a port in Shanghai on April 20, 2025. (Photo by AFP) / China OUT
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China Exempts Some Goods from US Tariffs to Limit trade War Pain

TOPSHOT - An aerial view shows cargo containers stacked at a port in Shanghai on April 20, 2025. (Photo by AFP) / China OUT
TOPSHOT - An aerial view shows cargo containers stacked at a port in Shanghai on April 20, 2025. (Photo by AFP) / China OUT

China has exempted some US imports from its 125% tariffs and is asking firms to identify critical goods they need levy-free, according to businesses notified, in the clearest sign yet of Beijing's concerns about the trade war's economic fallout.

The dispensation, which follows de-escalatory statements from Washington, signals that the world's two largest economies were prepared to rein in their conflict, which had frozen much of the trade between them, raising fears of a global recession.

Beijing's exemptions - which business groups hope would extend to dozens of industries - pushed the US dollar up slightly and lifted equity markets in Hong Kong and Japan.

“As a quid-pro-quo move, it could provide a potential way to de-escalate tensions," said Alfredo Montufar-Helu, a senior adviser to the Conference Board's China Center, a think tank.

But, he cautioned: "It’s clear that neither the US nor China want to be the first in reaching out for a deal."

China has not yet communicated publicly on any exemptions. A Friday statement by the Politburo, the Communist Party's elite decision-making body, focused on efforts to maintain stability at home by supporting firms and workers most affected by tariffs.

The readout, which followed the Politburo's regular monthly meeting, showed that Beijing was also ready to hunker down and fight a trade war of attrition if needed to outlast Washington in enduring the pain from the breakdown of their relationship.

A Ministry of Commerce taskforce is collecting lists of items that could be exempted from tariffs and is asking companies to submit their own requests, according to a person with knowledge of that outreach.

The ministry said on Thursday it had held a meeting with more than 80 foreign companies and business chambers in China to discuss the impact of US tariffs on investment and the operation of foreign firms in the country.

"The Chinese government, for example, has been asking our companies what sort of things are you importing to China from the US that you cannot find anywhere else and so would shut down your supply chain," American Chamber of Commerce in China President Michael Hart said.

Hart added some member pharmaceutical companies had reported being able to import drugs to China without tariffs. He believed the exemptions were drug-specific, not industry-wide.

The chief executive of French aircraft engine maker Safran said on Friday it had been informed last night that China had granted tariff exemptions on "a certain number of aerospace equipment parts" including engines and landing gear.

The tariff exemptions under consideration by Beijing could provide cost relief for companies in China and take pressure off US exports at a time when the Trump administration has shown signs of wanting to make a deal with Beijing.

The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China also said it had raised the issue of tariff exemptions with the commerce ministry and was awaiting a response.

"Many of our member companies are significantly impacted by the tariffs on critical components imported from the US," President Jens Eskelund said.

A list of 131 categories of products said to be under consideration for tariff exemptions was circulating on Chinese social media platforms and among some businesses and trade groups on Friday. Reuters could not verify the list, which included items ranging from vaccines and chemicals to jet engines.

Huatai Securities said the list corresponded to $45 billion worth of imports to China last year.

China's customs agency and Ministry of Commerce did not reply to requests for comment. China's foreign ministry said it was not familiar with tariff exemption plans, redirecting queries to "relevant authorities".