China’s First Four-Month Steel Exports at Record High Despite Tariff Turmoil 

Workers install steel rods at a construction site in Miami, Florida, US, March 11, 2025. (Reuters)
Workers install steel rods at a construction site in Miami, Florida, US, March 11, 2025. (Reuters)
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China’s First Four-Month Steel Exports at Record High Despite Tariff Turmoil 

Workers install steel rods at a construction site in Miami, Florida, US, March 11, 2025. (Reuters)
Workers install steel rods at a construction site in Miami, Florida, US, March 11, 2025. (Reuters)

China's steel exports in April topped 10 million metric tons for a second straight month bringing the total in the first four months to a record high, underpinned by front-loaded shipments ahead of US President Donald Trump's hefty tariffs.

The world's largest steel producer and exporter shipped 10.46 million tons of steel last month, customs data showed on Friday. While largely unchanged from March, exports were 13.5% higher than the same month in 2024.

Exports from January to April jumped by 8.2% from the year before to an all-time high for the period of 37.89 million tons.

"Steel exports in April are a bit higher than our expectation, albeit maintaining positive annual growth, supported by sustained front-loading orders observed," said Jiang Mengtian, a Shanghai-based analyst at consultancy Horizon Insights.

Jiang forecast May shipments to slow as tariff and widening trade protectionism started to bite.

Washington's tariffs threaten the transshipment trade, where third countries resell Chinese steel to the US, while China's top steel customers like South Korea and Vietnam have also imposed duties to avoid steel being rerouted and dumped in their markets.

Second-quarter exports are set to fall by as much as a fifth from the first quarter as a result, eight analysts and traders told Reuters earlier this week.

China's April iron ore imports climbed by 9.8% from March to the highest since December, as improved margins encouraged mills to book more seaborne cargoes.

The world's largest iron ore consumer brought in 103.14 million tons of the key steelmaking ingredient last month, up from a 20-month low of 93.97 million tons in March.

The volume last month, which was largely in line with analysts' expectations, was also 1.3% higher than 101.82 million tons in April 2024.

"Since March imports missed expectations, it's not surprising to see higher iron ore imports in April, which could also be reflected in higher hot metal output last month and a pile-up in inventory in the last two weeks of April," said Pei Hao, an analyst at international brokerage Freight Investor Services (FIS).

In the first four months of this year, China's iron ore imports slid 5.5% from the year earlier to 388.36 million tons, the data showed.



Oil Slips as Iran-Israel Conflict Enters Sixth Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Slips as Iran-Israel Conflict Enters Sixth Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, after a gain of 4% in the previous session, as markets weighed up the chance of supply disruptions from the Iran-Israel conflict and as they ponder a direct US involvement.

Brent crude futures fell 93 cents, or 1.2%, to $75.52 a barrel by 0918 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 88 cents, also 1.2%, to $73.96 per barrel.

US President Trump warned on social media on Tuesday that US patience was wearing thin, and called for an "unconditional surrender" from Iran.

While he said there was no intention to kill Iran's leader Ali Khamenei "for now," his comments suggested a tougher stance toward Iran as he weighs whether to deepen US involvement.

A source familiar with internal discussions said one of the options Trump and his team are considering included joining Israel on strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.

A direct US involvement threatens to widen the confrontation further, putting energy infrastructure in the region at higher risk of attack, analysts say.

"The biggest fear for the oil market is the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz," ING analysts said in a note.

"Almost a third of global seaborne oil trade moves through this chokepoint. A significant disruption to these flows would be enough to push prices to $120 [a barrel]," the bank added.

Iran is OPEC's third-largest producer, extracting about 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil.

Meanwhile, Iranian ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva Ali Bahreini said on Wednesday that Tehran has conveyed to Washington that it will respond firmly to the United States if it becomes directly involved in Israel's military campaign.

Markets are also looking ahead to a second day of US Federal Reserve discussions on Wednesday, in which the central bank is expected to leave its benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

However, the conflict in the Middle East and the risk of slowing global growth could potentially push the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in July, sooner than the market's current expectation of September, said Tony Sycamore, market analyst with IG.

Lower interest rates generally boost economic growth and demand for oil.

Confounding the decision for the Fed, however, is the Middle East conflict's potential creation of a new source of inflation via surging oil prices.

US crude stocks fell by 10.1 million barrels in the week ended June 13, market sources told Reuters, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Official Energy Information Administration data is due later on Wednesday.