Dollar Eyes Weekly Rise into US-China Trade Talks 

A clerk sorts US hundred-dollar notes at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 08 May 2025. (EPA/Yonhap)
A clerk sorts US hundred-dollar notes at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 08 May 2025. (EPA/Yonhap)
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Dollar Eyes Weekly Rise into US-China Trade Talks 

A clerk sorts US hundred-dollar notes at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 08 May 2025. (EPA/Yonhap)
A clerk sorts US hundred-dollar notes at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 08 May 2025. (EPA/Yonhap)

The dollar headed for a weekly gain on most major peers on Friday as a US-UK trade deal raised hopes of progress in looming US-China talks, while bets of imminent Fed rate cuts receded after the central bank indicated it was in no hurry.

Financial markets are heading into the weekend with the focus squarely on trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing due to begin on Saturday in Switzerland.

The euro touched a one-month low of $1.1197 in Asia and was down about 0.6% for the week. The yen has weakened about 0.4% this week and hit a one-month trough of 146.18 per dollar, before steadying around 145.48 on Friday.

Sterling, which had rallied on news reports of an impending US-UK trade deal, gave back gains when the agreement turned out to be pretty limited and struck a three-week low of $1.3220 in early trade on Friday.

The "general terms" agreement modestly expands agricultural access for both countries and lowers prohibitive US duties on British car exports, but leaves in place the 10% baseline.

"The market reaction of buying USD may reflect greater optimism that such tariff deals are doable," said Steve Englander, global head of G10 currency research at Standard Chartered, in a note to clients.

"Trump's dangling of the prospect of a trade detente with China may be adding to optimism that the global disruption from trade wars may not be as severe as markets have feared," he said.

"For the time being, G10 markets would be relieved if US and China bilateral tariffs were rolled back, even if they remain well above January 19 levels."

Bitcoin has surged back above $100,000, reflecting a refreshed appetite for risk-taking in markets' more speculative corners.

Announcing the UK deal, Trump said he expects substantive negotiations between the US and China this weekend and that tariffs on Beijing of 145% would likely come down.

The administration is weighing a plan to slash the tariff on Chinese imports by more than half, the New York Post reported, citing unidentified sources, though the White House dismissed that as speculation.

The Australian dollar headed for its first weekly drop in a month, with a 0.7% fall to $0.6407. The New Zealand dollar was likewise lower, clinging to support at $0.5895, just above its 200-day moving average.

On the central bank front this week moves were as expected with the Bank of England cutting, while Sweden, Norway and the United States left rates on hold.

However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, emphasising the level of uncertainty, were taken as reducing the likelihood the Fed lowers rates any time soon and market pricing for a cut in June has drifted to about 17% from about 55% a week ago.

In contrast with G10 peers, the dollar was lower on several Asian currencies this week after a shock surge in the Taiwan dollar.

After a volatile few days it has settled around 30 to the dollar, more than 6% stronger from where it had finished April. The Singapore dollar is not far from decade highs. The Hong Kong dollar has retreated from the strong side of its band after heavy intervention from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

India's rupee opened under renewed pressure on Friday as conflict between India and Pakistan escalates. It dropped sharply on Thursday and, at 85.55 to the dollar, is eyeing its heaviest weekly fall since 2022.



Saudi Economy Grows 2.8% as Non-Oil Sector Drives Expansion

A container ship at a Saudi port (SPA)
A container ship at a Saudi port (SPA)
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Saudi Economy Grows 2.8% as Non-Oil Sector Drives Expansion

A container ship at a Saudi port (SPA)
A container ship at a Saudi port (SPA)

Saudi Arabia’s economy maintained positive growth despite regional tensions and oil market volatility, reflecting strong fundamentals and the continued impact of diversification efforts. Expansion in non-oil activities remained the key driver, supporting stability and strengthening the economy’s ability to adapt to global shifts.

The General Authority for Statistics said in flash estimates that real GDP grew 2.8% in the first quarter of 2026 from a year earlier, with non-oil sectors contributing about 60% of the increase.

All major sectors posted gains. Non-oil activities rose 2.8%, the oil sector grew about 2.3%, and government activities increased 1.5% year on year.

Growth momentum

Economists told Asharq Al-Awsat the first-quarter expansion highlights the Kingdom’s structural shift, with oil no longer the main engine of growth. Non-oil sectors now lead, accounting for roughly 60% of the expansion.

They said the figures show diversification policies are delivering tangible results, strengthening economic stability and improving resilience to global and regional volatility. Sustained momentum, they added, reflects successful policies to build a broader, more durable production base and support long-term growth.

Mega projects

Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at Riyad Bank, said the economy is moving toward a more diversified and sustainable model, with growth set to accelerate as reforms continue and mega projects expand.

“All indicators point to a positive outlook in the medium and long term. Despite geopolitical events, the consumer confidence index in March showed an expansionary trend, as did the Riyad Bank Purchasing Managers' Index in April, along with private sector optimism, signaling a faster recovery in growth momentum in the coming quarters,” he said.

Al-Ghaith said the data confirm strong progress in diversification driven by non-oil growth, adding that the economy is building solid foundations away from oil volatility. He said government policies have opened new investment opportunities in sectors including tourism, entertainment, technology, energy and infrastructure.

He added that the state continues to invest billions in mega projects to generate future revenues, alongside efforts by the Public Investment Fund to accelerate diversification through targeted local and international investments.

Geopolitical challenges

Hisham Abu Jameh, senior adviser at Naif Al Rajhi Investment, said the first-quarter performance reflects a balance between growth and the ability to absorb temporary external pressures, with GDP maintaining a positive pace despite geopolitical risks and energy market swings.

He said the economy is no longer heavily reliant on oil and is better positioned to absorb shocks thanks to more diverse income sources.

Abu Jameh said the non-oil sector remains a key stabilizer. Despite slower growth than in previous periods, it continues to expand, supported by sectors such as tourism, services and logistics.

He said this reflects the success of reforms under Saudi Vision 2030 and of ongoing efforts to boost investment and private-sector participation.

Sector contributions

Data from the General Authority for Statistics showed non-oil sectors led growth, contributing 1.7 percentage points, followed by oil at 0.7 percentage points and government activities at 0.3 percentage points. Net taxes on products added 0.2 percentage points.

Seasonally adjusted data showed GDP fell 1.5% in the first quarter from the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by a 7.2% drop in oil activities. Non-oil sectors grew 0.8%, while government activities rose 0.2%.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, oil activities were the main drag, cutting 1.7 percentage points from growth. Non-oil and government activities each added 0.1 percentage points.


Oil Prices Whipsaw while US Stocks Glide Near their Record Heights

Facilities of the PCK Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, northeastern Germany, are seen at the company's plant on April 30, 2026 - (File Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ / AFP)
Facilities of the PCK Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, northeastern Germany, are seen at the company's plant on April 30, 2026 - (File Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ / AFP)
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Oil Prices Whipsaw while US Stocks Glide Near their Record Heights

Facilities of the PCK Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, northeastern Germany, are seen at the company's plant on April 30, 2026 - (File Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ / AFP)
Facilities of the PCK Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, northeastern Germany, are seen at the company's plant on April 30, 2026 - (File Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ / AFP)

Oil prices whipsawed on Thursday and surged toward their highest levels since the war with Iran began, only for the leaps to quickly vanish. The US stock market, meanwhile, is gliding following more strong profit reports from big companies like Alphabet.

The S&P 500 rose 0.1% and is a bit below its all-time high set earlier this week, as companies continue to deliver fatter profits for the start of 2026 than analysts expected despite high oil prices and uncertainty about the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 413 points, or 0.8%, as of 10 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.3% lower, Reuters reported.

Alphabet led the way and rose 5.8% after the owner of Google and YouTube reported profit for the latest quarter that almost doubled analysts’ expectations. Investments in artificial intelligence “are lighting up every part of the business,” CEO Sundar Pichai said.

The steadiness on Wall Street followed manic swings in the oil market, where prices surged overnight on worries that the Iran war will affect the flow of crude for a long time. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers, keeping them pent up in the Arabian Gulf and away from customers worldwide, while a US Navy blockade is preventing Iran from selling its own oil.

Traders are always buying and selling contracts for different kinds of oil, going out for many months. In the most actively traded part of the market for Brent crude, the international standard, the price got as high as $114.70 overnight for a barrel of Brent to be delivered in July. It then regressed to $109.80, down 0.6%, which is still well above the roughly $70 per barrel that Brent was selling for before the war.

So far during the war, the peak price for the most actively traded Brent contract is $119.50, which was set last month.

In a less actively traded corner of the Brent market, the price for a barrel to be delivered in June briefly went above $126 overnight before pulling back toward $114.

That easing, along with the continuing flood of better-than-expected profit reports from US companies, helped to keep Wall Street stable near its records.

Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, O’Reilly Automotive and Royal Caribbean all rallied more than 6% after delivering profits for the latest quarter that topped analysts’ expectations. That’s crucial for investors because stock prices tend to follow the track of corporate profits over the long term.

Still, a better-than-expected result isn’t always enough to boost a stock’s price if it’s already shot much higher.

Meta Platforms tumbled 9.9% even though the company behind Facebook and Instagram made more profit last quarter than expected. Investors focused more on Meta’s increased forecast for how much it will spend on data centers and other investments this year as it builds out its AI capabilities, up to a range of $125 billion to $145 billion.

Doubts are still high among some investors about whether all the AI spending by Meta and other companies will produce enough profit and productivity to make it worth it.

Microsoft fell 4.5% after it likewise raised its forecast for investments and other capital spending. But analysts also said accelerating trends at its Azure business were encouraging.

Amazon slid 0.8% after blowing past analysts’ expectations for earnings in the latest quarter.

In the bond market, Treasury yields eased after oil prices gave up their big overnight gains. Reports also suggested that US economic growth accelerated by less in the first three months of the year than economists expected, while a measure of inflation worsened in March by about as much as expected.

A separate report said that fewer US workers applied for unemployment benefits last week in an indication of fewer layoffs even though companies are announcing large cuts to workforces.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.38% from 4.42% late Wednesday.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed.

London’s FTSE 100 jumped 1.3% after the Bank of England kept its main interest rate on hold.

Germany's DAX returned 0.7%, and France's CAC 40 slipped 0.2% after the European Central Bank also held its own interest rates steady. That followed similar decisions by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Tuesday to keep their rates unchanged.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.3%, while stocks added 0.1% in Shanghai after a report said China’s factory activity slowed slightly in April but remained in expansion territory for the second month.


Saudi GDP Grows 2.8% in First Quarter

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
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Saudi GDP Grows 2.8% in First Quarter

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)

Saudi Arabia's real gross domestic product grew 2.8% in the first quarter, year-on-year, preliminary government estimates showed on Thursday.

Non-oil activities grew 2.8% in the quarter, and oil activities increased 2.3% from the prior-year period, the General Authority of Statistics data ⁠showed.

On a quarterly basis, growth shrank 1.5% in the three months to March 31 compared to the fourth quarter, driven by a decline in oil activities.

Oil activity decreased 7.2% from the fourth quarter, while non-oil activity was almost flat.