Dollar Eyes Weekly Rise into US-China Trade Talks 

A clerk sorts US hundred-dollar notes at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 08 May 2025. (EPA/Yonhap)
A clerk sorts US hundred-dollar notes at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 08 May 2025. (EPA/Yonhap)
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Dollar Eyes Weekly Rise into US-China Trade Talks 

A clerk sorts US hundred-dollar notes at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 08 May 2025. (EPA/Yonhap)
A clerk sorts US hundred-dollar notes at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, 08 May 2025. (EPA/Yonhap)

The dollar headed for a weekly gain on most major peers on Friday as a US-UK trade deal raised hopes of progress in looming US-China talks, while bets of imminent Fed rate cuts receded after the central bank indicated it was in no hurry.

Financial markets are heading into the weekend with the focus squarely on trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing due to begin on Saturday in Switzerland.

The euro touched a one-month low of $1.1197 in Asia and was down about 0.6% for the week. The yen has weakened about 0.4% this week and hit a one-month trough of 146.18 per dollar, before steadying around 145.48 on Friday.

Sterling, which had rallied on news reports of an impending US-UK trade deal, gave back gains when the agreement turned out to be pretty limited and struck a three-week low of $1.3220 in early trade on Friday.

The "general terms" agreement modestly expands agricultural access for both countries and lowers prohibitive US duties on British car exports, but leaves in place the 10% baseline.

"The market reaction of buying USD may reflect greater optimism that such tariff deals are doable," said Steve Englander, global head of G10 currency research at Standard Chartered, in a note to clients.

"Trump's dangling of the prospect of a trade detente with China may be adding to optimism that the global disruption from trade wars may not be as severe as markets have feared," he said.

"For the time being, G10 markets would be relieved if US and China bilateral tariffs were rolled back, even if they remain well above January 19 levels."

Bitcoin has surged back above $100,000, reflecting a refreshed appetite for risk-taking in markets' more speculative corners.

Announcing the UK deal, Trump said he expects substantive negotiations between the US and China this weekend and that tariffs on Beijing of 145% would likely come down.

The administration is weighing a plan to slash the tariff on Chinese imports by more than half, the New York Post reported, citing unidentified sources, though the White House dismissed that as speculation.

The Australian dollar headed for its first weekly drop in a month, with a 0.7% fall to $0.6407. The New Zealand dollar was likewise lower, clinging to support at $0.5895, just above its 200-day moving average.

On the central bank front this week moves were as expected with the Bank of England cutting, while Sweden, Norway and the United States left rates on hold.

However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, emphasising the level of uncertainty, were taken as reducing the likelihood the Fed lowers rates any time soon and market pricing for a cut in June has drifted to about 17% from about 55% a week ago.

In contrast with G10 peers, the dollar was lower on several Asian currencies this week after a shock surge in the Taiwan dollar.

After a volatile few days it has settled around 30 to the dollar, more than 6% stronger from where it had finished April. The Singapore dollar is not far from decade highs. The Hong Kong dollar has retreated from the strong side of its band after heavy intervention from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

India's rupee opened under renewed pressure on Friday as conflict between India and Pakistan escalates. It dropped sharply on Thursday and, at 85.55 to the dollar, is eyeing its heaviest weekly fall since 2022.



Iraq Could Restore Oil Exports to Pre-war Level within a Week if Hormuz Reopens, Basra Oil Chief Says

A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah, near the border with Oman’s Musandam governance, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah, near the border with Oman’s Musandam governance, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
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Iraq Could Restore Oil Exports to Pre-war Level within a Week if Hormuz Reopens, Basra Oil Chief Says

A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah, near the border with Oman’s Musandam governance, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah, near the border with Oman’s Musandam governance, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

Iraq could restore crude oil exports to around 3.4 million barrels per day within a week provided the Iran war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the head of the country’s state-run Basra Oil Company said.

Among Gulf oil producers, Iraq has suffered the biggest drop in oil revenue as a result of the effective closure of the Strait, a Reuters analysis has found, because it lacks alternative shipment routes.

But the country, the second biggest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, can quickly restore output to levels before US-Israeli attacks on Iran at the end of February led to the effective closure of the waterway. The Strait typically is the route for about a fifth of global oil and LNG flows.

SO FAR IRAN HAS MADE ONLY VERBAL PROMISES

Bassem Abdul Karim said Iran has so far provided only verbal guarantees that would allow Iraqi tankers permission to transit the Strait.

“We have not received any formal documents regarding permission for Iraqi tankers to pass,” he said in an interview with Reuters.

He said production from Iraq's southern oilfields was around 900,000 barrels per day, but if the war ends and safe passage through the Strait is guaranteed exports could reach 3.4 million bpd within a week.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to rain "hell" on Tehran unless it makes a deal by the end of Tuesday that would allow traffic to move through the Strait of Hormuz.

STEEP DROP IN IRAQI OIL OUTPUT

Last month, Iraq’s oil production dropped by about 80% to around 800,000 barrels per day, Iraqi energy officials told Reuters last month as the war meant Iraq could not export and storage tanks filled.

With limited outlets for Iraqi oil, production from the Rumaila field fell to around 400,000 bpd, down from about 1.35 million bpd before the conflict, and at the Zubair field the level was about 300,000 bpd, down 340,000 bpd before the war, Abdul Karim said.

Several smaller fields are being operated at limited levels to ensure continued production of associated gas, used in domestic power generation, while shutdowns at other sites have been used as an opportunity to carry out maintenance work, he added.

Production from Iraq's fields was around 4.3 million bpd before the war, which should leave enough leeway to export 3.4 million bpd even allowing for war-related damage.

Gas output from fields in Basra has dropped to around 700 million standard cubic feet per day, compared with about 1.1 billion standard cubic feet mscf per day before the war, largely because of the reduced oil production, Abdul Karim said.

MEETING REFINERY DEMAND

To supply domestic demand, BOC is sending around 400,000 bpd of crude to northern Iraq. That includes about 150,000 bpd by truck and roughly 250,000 bpd via a domestic pipeline, to supply refineries that have demand of around 500,000 bpd.

Production from the northern Kirkuk fields is roughly 380,000 barrels per day, Abdul Karim said.

Asked about the impact of drone attacks, Abdul Karim said strikes on oil facilities had caused “major losses to the continuity of production and oil operations,” adding that both foreign and Iraqi service companies had been targeted.

A two-drone attack that targeted the Rumaila oilfield on Saturday wounded three Iraqi workers, security and energy sources told Reuters.

Abdul Karim said the attack on the northern part of the Rumaila field hit sites used by US oilfield services companies Schlumberger and Baker Hughes, causing a fire that was later brought under control.

Neither Schlumberger nor Baker Hughes immediately responded to requests for comment.


Gold Holds Nearly Steady with Focus on US-Iran Tensions

Gold jewelry in a Korean gold exchange store in Seoul (AFP)
Gold jewelry in a Korean gold exchange store in Seoul (AFP)
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Gold Holds Nearly Steady with Focus on US-Iran Tensions

Gold jewelry in a Korean gold exchange store in Seoul (AFP)
Gold jewelry in a Korean gold exchange store in Seoul (AFP)

Gold prices were nearly steady on Monday, as market participants stayed cautious and awaited further signals on the evolving US-Iran situation and its impact on global interest rates.

Spot gold was little changed at $4,669.13 per ounce by 9:26 a.m. ET (1326 GMT) after falling 1% earlier in the session. US gold futures rose 0.3% to $4,694.20 per ounce, Reuters reported.

On the eve of a US deadline, the United States and Iran were weighing the framework of a plan to end their five-week-old conflict, even as Tehran pushed back against pressure to swiftly reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has threatened to rain "hell" on Tehran if it did not make a deal by the end of Tuesday.

"Focus is likely to remain on the war and interest rates. If the conflict drags on, oil will grind higher amid tightening supply conditions, adding to inflationary pressures," said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities.

"That leaves central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, with less room to ease policy and could even revive discussions about higher rates if energy prices rise further, which is negative for gold."

Oil prices fell in choppy trading on Monday, though they have risen sharply since the conflict began.

Gold is widely regarded as a hedge against geopolitical risks and inflation, but because it yields no interest, it tends to be less attractive when interest rates are high. Other items on investors’ radar include minutes of the Fed’s March policy meeting due on Wednesday, US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data due on Thursday, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday.

The US central bank held rates steady last month and a majority of traders now see no chance of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Among other metals, spot silver fell 0.4% to $72.67 per ounce, platinum lost 1% to $1,969.81, and palladium was down 1% at $1,488.58.


Morocco Launches Financial Futures Trading with Contract on MASI 20 Index  

File photo of a police officer standing near a Moroccan national flag near the main stadium during preparations for the FIFA Club World Cup in Agadir, December 10, 2013. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh
File photo of a police officer standing near a Moroccan national flag near the main stadium during preparations for the FIFA Club World Cup in Agadir, December 10, 2013. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh
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Morocco Launches Financial Futures Trading with Contract on MASI 20 Index  

File photo of a police officer standing near a Moroccan national flag near the main stadium during preparations for the FIFA Club World Cup in Agadir, December 10, 2013. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh
File photo of a police officer standing near a Moroccan national flag near the main stadium during preparations for the FIFA Club World Cup in Agadir, December 10, 2013. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh

Morocco on Monday began futures trading in financial instruments with its first listing of a standard futures contract on the MASI 20 equity index, the central bank and the AMMC - the capital markets regulator - said.

The contract, called the "MASI 20 Future," is based on an index that tracks the 20 largest and most liquid stocks listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange, they said in a joint statement, AFP reported.

The contract's launch coincided with the unveiling of an institutional website by the Futures Market Coordination Body, a joint authority established to coordinate oversight of the futures market between the central bank and the AMMC.

The introduction of a futures contract represents the first step under Morocco's regulatory framework for derivatives trading, which will also allow for the development of other instruments such as options and swaps.