It's all or nothing when Manchester United and Tottenham meet in the Europa League final on Wednesday.
For the winner of the all-English showdown in Bilbao there is the mother of all get-out-of-jail-free cards with entry to the Champions League.
For the loser, the abyss of no European soccer next year, the indignity of so many unwanted records broken, and uncertainty hanging over the futures of those who have presided over such a spectacular fall.
That's what's on the line at Estadio de San Mamés when two English soccer giants get one last shot at salvaging the season.
Seasons of woe
Long gone are the days when United dominated the Premier League and challenged the summit of European soccer on a regular basis. But even after 12 years without winning the English title, this season has represented a new low.
United is 16th out of 20 in the standings after a club-record 18 defeats in a single campaign since the Premier League began in 1992. It is also certain to register its worst-ever points total in the era, as well as its lowest finish.
“We know this season has been nowhere near good enough for this club and for our standards,” United defender Harry Maguire said.
Tottenham is one place below United having lost 21 times in the league — also a club record in the modern era.
Spurs — Champions League runner-up in 2019 — are aiming for a first trophy since the 2008 English League Cup.
Champions League lifeline
It is rare that such a major final has so much riding on it beyond the trophy itself.
Neither team has looked capable of challenging for a top five position in the Premier League, which would secure Champions League qualification. But in a season when both teams occupy the last safe spots before relegation, they have a mind-boggling lifeline to the Champions League via the Europa League.
The Champions League offers the prestige of playing beside teams like Real Madrid and Barcelona, draws prospective signings, and comes with huge financial rewards.
Real Madrid earned almost $154 million from winning the competition for a record-extending 15th time last season. Total prize money has increased from $2 billion last season to $2.7 billion in this expanded season.
United, in particular, could do with some of that money at a time of job losses and cuts under new co-owner Jim Ratcliffe, while coach Ruben Amorim hopes to rebuild his squad in the offseason.
“We are supposed to be in the Champions League. Europa League here is not enough and you have that feeling here,” Amorim said. “The best way to help us get in the top in a few years is the Champions League — it’s not (winning) the cup (Europa League).”
Trophy drought
While a return to the Champions League is also enticing for Tottenham, the chance to end its trophy barren run may be even more appealing.
Not even top-class managers like Mauricio Pochettino, Jose Mourinho or Antonio Conte ended Spurs' wait for major silverware.
It could be destiny that Ange Postecoglou is the man to end the drought, having boldly predicted early in the season that he always wins a trophy in his second year.
That was true at previous clubs Brisbane Roar, Yokohama F Marinos and Celtic, but it would be remarkable if he continued that run on the back of such a desperate campaign.
“It’s not for the want of world-class players. This club has had world-class players,” Postecoglou said. “It’s not for the want of world-class managers. They’ve had world-class managers. It’s something else that’s going to change this club.”
By contrast, United has continued to win trophies despite its failure to win the Premier League since former manager Alex Ferguson retired in 2013.
This could be the third straight year United ends the season with silverware after winning the 2023 League Cup and the 2024 FA Cup.
Under pressure
Amorim replaced Erik ten Hag as United coach in November but has not been able to turn its form around.
He's lost 14 of his 26 league games, including six of the last eight.
While there has been no suggestion his job is under immediate threat, he has raised doubts about his position, admitting he is embarrassed by his team's form.
Postecoglou is two years into the job at Spurs and became the club's fourth permanent manager in four years when joining from Celtic in 2023.
A major trophy would put a different complexion on a season in which Spurs have dramatically fallen since he led them to a fifth-place finish in his first year.
He and Amorim have spoken of the similarities about their positions.
“I guess from an emotional standpoint and the noise around the club,” Postecoglou said. “We’re kind of dealing with similar things of something that is so fantastic in terms of a European run, and also something that’s obviously the opposite of that, the other extreme in the league.”
