Republicans Are Divided Over Iran. Will Trump Pick a Side?

A supporter holds a banner with US President Donald Trump's picture near the Washington Monument, ahead of the upcoming US Army 250th anniversary celebration parade, in Washington, DC, US, June 13, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
A supporter holds a banner with US President Donald Trump's picture near the Washington Monument, ahead of the upcoming US Army 250th anniversary celebration parade, in Washington, DC, US, June 13, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
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Republicans Are Divided Over Iran. Will Trump Pick a Side?

A supporter holds a banner with US President Donald Trump's picture near the Washington Monument, ahead of the upcoming US Army 250th anniversary celebration parade, in Washington, DC, US, June 13, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
A supporter holds a banner with US President Donald Trump's picture near the Washington Monument, ahead of the upcoming US Army 250th anniversary celebration parade, in Washington, DC, US, June 13, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard

Tyler Pager and Luke Broadwater*

 

As Israel pummels Iran with waves of airstrikes, US President Donald Trump is navigating the divides within the Republican Party over whether the United States should get involved in another foreign conflict.

On one side are the isolationists who fear that Israel could pull the United States into another Middle East war. And on the other are the Iran hawks and Israel supporters who have been calling for just this sort of military action for years.

Trump appears caught between the two sides, veering back and forth as he tries to distance the United States from Israel’s assault while celebrating the success of the attacks and warning Iran that more is coming.

“This, right now, is going to cause, I think, a major schism in the MAGA online community,” Charlie Kirk, the right-wing activist and podcaster, said Thursday on his podcast.

Trump had several times this year dissuaded Israel from launching an attack, saying he wanted to pursue a negotiated settlement with Iran.

Shortly after the assault began, the White House sent out a statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, emphasizing that the United States was not involved in the initial military operation.

“Israel took unilateral action against Iran,” Rubio said. “We are not involved in strikes against Iran, and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region.”

But in subsequent interviews, the president said he spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Thursday, knew the attacks were planned and called the strikes “excellent.”

In a post on Truth Social, he wrote Israel has “already planned attacks” that would be “even more brutal.” And the US military helped Israel intercept some of the ballistic missiles Iran fired in retaliation, an American official said.

While running for president, Trump promised to end wars around the world, and in his inaugural address, he said he wanted to be remembered as a peacemaking president.

So far, Trump’s diplomatic efforts have failed to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, which he had promised to do within 24 hours, or the war between Israel and Hamas.

Over the past several months, the Trump administration had been trying to strike a new nuclear deal with Iran, and the president had urged Netanyahu to hold off any military actions as the talks continued.
“I don’t want them going in because that would blow it,” Trump told reporters at the White House just hours before the attacks.
After Israel launched the missiles, Trump put the blame on Iran, faulting its leaders for refusing to accept a proposal that would have stopped it from enriching uranium.

“I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal,” he wrote on Truth Social on Friday morning. “I told them, in the strongest of words, to ‘just do it,’ but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done.”

Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted that Trump had flipped his position on whether Israel should strike Iran. But he said Israel made a calculated gamble that Trump would go along with the idea.

“They made a bet on President Trump,” he said, adding: “Trump, for a long time -- most of the time he’s been in office -- has been saying ‘no, we’re negotiating, no, don’t do it.’ The Israelis strike, and today Trump called it excellent.”

For many Republicans, Israel’s military strikes were long overdue amid growing fears that Iran was moving closer to full nuclear capabilities.

“The number of Republicans who do not see a nuclear-armed Iran as a threat to Israel and the world is exceedingly small,” said Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina and a close ally of the president. “The overwhelming majority of Republicans back Israel’s use of military force to neuter the Iranian nuclear threat.”

Another faction of Trump’s most ardent supporters see it differently. Israel’s strikes and the prospect of US involvement in the conflict, they argue, run counter to Trump’s “America First” foreign policy agenda.

“The emails are so largely overwhelmingly against Israel doing this, I’d say it’s probably a 99 to one,” Kirk said on Thursday night of feedback he was receiving from his listeners.

Some MAGA supporters argued that Israel’s targeted strikes of both nuclear sites and top military commanders were part of an effort to ignite a bigger conflict and draw the United States into it.

US officials said on Friday that the Pentagon was positioning warships and other military assets in the Middle East to help protect Israel and US troops in the region from any further Iranian retaliation.

“The bottom line is we cannot be dragged into, inexorably dragged into, a war on the Eurasian land mass in the Middle East or in Eastern Europe,” Stephen K. Bannon, a former top adviser to Mr. Trump who remains close to the president, said on Friday on his “War Room” podcast.

On Israel, he said: “Hey, you guys did it. You’re putting your country first. Your country’s defense first. That’s fine, but we’ve got to put our defense first.”

But Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said the Trump administration was just “shouting from the sidelines.”

“Trump will likely keep the US out of conflict and offer mediation, but at this point, he’s just basically treading water,” he wrote in an email. “The big issue will play out in Congress during debates about Israel aid and replenishing Israeli stockpiles.”

 

*The New York Times



Trump Says Nations Doing Business with Iran Face 25% Tariff on US Trade

US President Donald Trump speaks with members of the media aboard Air Force One en route from Florida to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, US, January 11, 2026. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
US President Donald Trump speaks with members of the media aboard Air Force One en route from Florida to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, US, January 11, 2026. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
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Trump Says Nations Doing Business with Iran Face 25% Tariff on US Trade

US President Donald Trump speaks with members of the media aboard Air Force One en route from Florida to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, US, January 11, 2026. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
US President Donald Trump speaks with members of the media aboard Air Force One en route from Florida to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, US, January 11, 2026. REUTERS/Nathan Howard

President Donald Trump said on Monday any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on any trade with the US, as Washington weighs a response to the situation in Iran which is seeing its biggest anti-government protests in years.

"Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America," Trump said in a post on Truth Social. Tariffs are paid by US importers of goods from those countries. Iran, a member of the OPEC oil producing group, has been heavily sanctioned by Washington for years. It exports much of its oil to China, with Türkiye, Iraq, and India among its other top trading partners.

"This Order is final ‌and ⁠conclusive," Trump said ‌without providing any further detail.

There was no official documentation from the White House of the policy on its website, nor information about the legal authority Trump would use to impose the tariffs, or whether they would be aimed at all of Iran's trading partners. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

The Chinese embassy in Washington criticized Trump's approach, saying China will take "all necessary measures" to safeguard its interests and opposed "any illicit unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction."

"China's position against the indiscriminate imposition of tariffs is consistent and clear. Tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and ⁠coercion and pressure cannot solve problems," a spokesperson of the Chinese embassy in Washington said on X.

Japan and South Korea, which agreed on trade ‌deals with the US last year, said on Tuesday they are ‍closely monitoring the development.

"We ... plan to take any necessary ‍measures once the specific actions of the US government become clear," South Korea's trade ministry said in a ‍statement.

Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Masanao Ozaki told reporters that Tokyo will "carefully examine the specific content of any measures as they become clear, as well as their potential impact on Japan, and will respond appropriately."

Iran, which had a 12-day war with US ally Israel last year and whose nuclear facilities the US military bombed in June, is seeing its biggest anti-government demonstrations in years. Trump has said the US may meet Iranian officials and that he was in contact with Iran's opposition, while piling pressure on its leaders, including threatening military action.

Tehran said ⁠on Monday it was keeping communication channels with Washington open as Trump considered how to respond to the situation in Iran, which has posed one of the gravest tests of clerical rule in the country since the Iranian Revolution in 1979.

Demonstrations evolved from complaints about dire economic hardships to defiant calls for the fall of the deeply entrenched clerical establishment. US-based rights group HRANA said it had verified the deaths of 599 people - 510 protesters and 89 security personnel - since the protests began on December 28.

While air strikes were one of many alternatives open to Trump, "diplomacy is always the first option for the president," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday.

During the course of his second term in office, Trump has often threatened and imposed tariffs on other countries over their ties with US adversaries and over trade policies that he has described as unfair to Washington.

Trump's trade policy is under legal pressure as ‌the US Supreme Court is considering striking down a broad swathe of Trump's existing tariffs.

Iran exported products to 147 trading partners in 2022, according to World Bank's most recent data.


Iran Summons French, German, Italian, UK Envoys Over Support for Protests

 Cars burn in a street during a protest over the collapse of the currency's value, in Tehran, Iran, January 8, 2026. Stringer/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Cars burn in a street during a protest over the collapse of the currency's value, in Tehran, Iran, January 8, 2026. Stringer/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
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Iran Summons French, German, Italian, UK Envoys Over Support for Protests

 Cars burn in a street during a protest over the collapse of the currency's value, in Tehran, Iran, January 8, 2026. Stringer/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Cars burn in a street during a protest over the collapse of the currency's value, in Tehran, Iran, January 8, 2026. Stringer/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters

Iran on Monday summoned diplomats in Tehran representing France, Germany, Italy and the UK to object to what it described as support by those countries for the protests that have shaken the country, its foreign ministry said.

The diplomats were shown a video of the damage caused by "rioters" and told their governments should "withdraw official statements supporting the protesters", the ministry said in a statement quoted by state television.

In Paris, the French foreign ministry confirmed that "European ambassadors" had been summoned by Iran.


Iran’s Traders, Frustrated by Economic Losses, Turn Against Clerics

 Cars burn in a street during a protest over the collapse of the currency's value, in Tehran, Iran, January 8, 2026. Stringer/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Cars burn in a street during a protest over the collapse of the currency's value, in Tehran, Iran, January 8, 2026. Stringer/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
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Iran’s Traders, Frustrated by Economic Losses, Turn Against Clerics

 Cars burn in a street during a protest over the collapse of the currency's value, in Tehran, Iran, January 8, 2026. Stringer/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Cars burn in a street during a protest over the collapse of the currency's value, in Tehran, Iran, January 8, 2026. Stringer/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters

Iran's bazaar merchants, the trader class who were the financial backbone of the 1979 revolution, have turned against the clerics they helped bring to power, fueling unrest over an economy that has morphed into full-blown anti-government protests.

Frustration among bazaar merchants, from small-scale shopkeepers to large wholesale traders, has grown as their political and economic clout in Iran has diminished over the decades while the elite Revolutionary Guards have tightened their grip on the economy, building sprawling and tightly held networks of power.

"We are struggling. We cannot import goods because of US sanctions and because only the Guards or those linked to them control the economy. They only think about their own benefits," said a trader at Tehran’s centuries-old Grand Bazaar, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The wave of protests that has engulfed the country, posing one of the toughest challenges ever to the clerical leadership, erupted in late December in Tehran's Grand Bazaar, where hundreds of shopkeepers denounced the sharp fall in the rial currency.

The demonstrations quickly swelled and turned political, challenging the Islamic Republic's legitimacy. Protesters burned images of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and chanted "Death ‌to the dictator" - ‌undeterred by security forces armed with tear gas, batons, and, in many cases, live ammunition.

Iran’s ‌rulers, ⁠while acknowledging economic difficulties, have ‌blamed their longtime foes the US and Israel for fomenting the unrest. They appear intent on holding onto power at any cost, backed by a security apparatus refined over decades of suppressing ethnic revolts, student movements, and protests over economic hardship and social freedoms.

A combination of international sanctions and the Guards' sprawling economic empire has limited the government's ability to ease the dire economic situation.

Tehran-based analyst Saeed Laylaz said the government has lost control over the situation.

"What is striking is that the unrest began in the bazaar. For merchants, the core issue isn’t inflation - it’s price volatility, which leaves them unable to decide whether to buy or sell," he said.

Economic disparities between ordinary Iranians and the clerical and security elite, along with economic mismanagement and state corruption - ⁠reported even by state media - have fanned discontent at a time when inflation is pushing the price of many goods beyond the means of most people.

Iran's rial currency has lost nearly ‌half its value against the dollar in 2025, with official inflation reaching 42.5% in December.

CONTROL ‍OF SECTORS FROM OIL TO CONSTRUCTION

Created by the republic's ‍late founder Khomeini, the Guards first secured an economic foothold after the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when clerical rulers allowed them ‍to invest in leading Iranian industries.

Their influence expanded exponentially over decades, benefiting from Khamenei's full backing and from opportunities created by Western sanctions, which effectively excluded Iran from the global financial and trading system.

The Guards now control vast sectors of the economy, from oil to transportation, communications, and construction.

Another trader said the crisis was not over, as the Guards have long proved adept at defending their economic interests.

"The government wants to resolve the problem, but it lacks the means and power in this system. The economy is not controlled by the government," said the trader, a 62-year-old carpet seller in Tehran.

All aspects of the country's sanctions-hit oil business have come under the growing influence of the ⁠Guards - from the shadow fleet of tankers that secretly ship sanctioned crude, to logistics and front companies selling the oil, mostly to China.

"No one knows how much of the oil money that the Guards get from selling Iran’s oil returns to the country ... they are too powerful to be questioned about it,” said a senior Iranian official, who asked not to be named.

During his 2013–2021 presidency, pragmatist Hassan Rouhani repeatedly clashed with the Guards, accusing them publicly of resisting budget cuts, while his attempts to curb their commercial networks and assets were largely frustrated.

THE ESTABLISHMENT RELIES ON THE GUARDS TO END UNREST

Even as it has relinquished economic power, the clerical establishment has relied on its loyal forces - the Guards and its affiliated Basij paramilitary - to violently crush ethnic uprisings, student unrest, and protests over economic hardship, preserving the political order.

"Given the sensitive circumstances when the country faces foreign threats, Khamenei cannot upset the Guards by curbing their economic influence. The establishment needs them to quell the protests and confront foreign threats," said an insider, close to Rouhani.

US-based rights group HRANA said it had verified the deaths of 544 people - 496 protesters and 48 security personnel - with 10,681 people arrested since ‌the protests began on December 28 and spread around the country. Reuters was unable to independently verify the tallies.

The authorities have not given numbers of casualties, but officials say many members of the security forces have been killed by "terrorists and rioters" linked to foreign foes, including the US States and Israel.