Oil Edges Down amid Bearish Trump Tariff Outlook

A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo
A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo
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Oil Edges Down amid Bearish Trump Tariff Outlook

A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo
A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo

Oil prices declined moderately on Thursday as investors weighed the potential impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs on global economic growth.

Brent crude futures were down 23 cents, or 0.3%, at $69.96 a barrel by 0904 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.06 a barrel.

On Wednesday, Trump threatened Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, with a punitive 50% tariff on exports to the US, after a public spat with his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

He has also announced plans for tariffs on copper, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals and his administration sent tariff letters to the Philippines, Iraq and others, adding to over a dozen letters issued earlier in the week including for powerhouse US suppliers South Korea and Japan.

Trump's history of backpedaling on tariffs has caused the market to become less reactive to such announcements, said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group.

"People are largely in wait and see mode, given the erratic nature of policy making and the flexibility the administration is showing around tariffs," Tchilinguirian said.

Policymakers remain worried about the inflationary pressures from Trump's tariffs, with only "a couple" of officials at the Federal Reserve's June 17-18 meeting saying they felt interest rates could be reduced as soon as this month, minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday showed.

Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and reduce demand for oil, Reuters said.

Supporting oil prices however was a weaker US dollar in Thursday's Asia trading session, said OANDA senior analyst Kelvin Wong. A weaker dollar lifts oil prices by making it cheaper for holders of other currencies.

US crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Gasoline demand rose 6% to 9.2 million barrels per day last week, the EIA said.

Global daily flights were averaging 107,600 in the first eight days of July, an all-time high, with flights in China reaching a five-month peak and port and freight activities indicating "sustained expansion" in trade activities from last year, JP Morgan said in a client note.

"Year to date, global oil demand growth is averaging 0.97 million barrels per day, in line with our forecast of 1 million barrels per day," the note said.

Additionally, there is doubt the recent increase in production quotas announced by OPEC+ will result in an actual increase in production, as some members are already exceeding their quotas, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.

"And others, like Russia, are unable to meet their targets due to damaged oil infrastructure," he said.

OPEC+ oil producers are set to approve another big output boost for September, as they complete both the unwinding of voluntary production cuts by eight members, and the United Arab Emirates' move to a larger quota.



Iraq State Oil Firm Reaffirms Deal Obliging Oil Companies in Kurdistan to Hand over Output

A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office / AFP)
A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office / AFP)
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Iraq State Oil Firm Reaffirms Deal Obliging Oil Companies in Kurdistan to Hand over Output

A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office / AFP)
A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office / AFP)

Iraq's state oil company, SOMO, reiterated on Sunday its commitment to its oil export deal with the Kurdish regional government ‌which obliges ‌global ‌oil companies ⁠operating in ‌the region to hand over their production of crude oil to the company.

SOMO ⁠made the remarks ‌in response to ‍a ‍Reuters report published ‍in September which quoted Norway's DNO as saying it had no immediate plans to ship ⁠oil through the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline which restarted after a more than two-year halt following a deal between Baghdad and the Kurdish ‌regional government.


How 2025 Decisions Redrew the Future of Riyadh’s Real Estate Market

Construction is seen at a real estate project in Riyadh. (SPA)
Construction is seen at a real estate project in Riyadh. (SPA)
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How 2025 Decisions Redrew the Future of Riyadh’s Real Estate Market

Construction is seen at a real estate project in Riyadh. (SPA)
Construction is seen at a real estate project in Riyadh. (SPA)

The Saudi capital underwent an unprecedented structural shift in its real estate market in 2025, driven by a forward-looking agenda led by Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince and Prime Minister. Far from incremental regulation, the year’s measures amounted to a deep corrective overhaul aimed at dismantling long-standing distortions, breaking land hoarding, expanding affordable housing supply, and firmly rebalancing landlord-tenant relations.

Together, the decisions ended years of speculation fueled by artificial scarcity and pushed the market toward maturity, one grounded in real demand, fair pricing, and transparency.

Observers dubbed 2025 a “white revolution” for Saudi real estate. The reforms severed the link between property and short-term speculation, restoring housing as a sustainable residential and investment product. Below is a detailed outline of the most significant of these historic decisions:

1- Unlocking land, boosting supply

In March, authorities lifted restrictions on sale, subdivision, development permits, and planning approvals for 81 million square meters north of Riyadh. A similar decision in October freed another 33.24 million square meters to the west.

The Royal Commission for Riyadh City was also mandated to deliver 10,000 - 40,000 fully serviced plots annually at subsidized prices capped at SAR 1,500 per square meter, curbing price manipulation and offering real alternatives for citizens.

2- Rent controls and contractual fairness

To stabilize households and businesses, the government froze annual rent increases for residential and commercial leases in Riyadh for five years starting in September. Enforced through the upgraded “Ejar” platform, the move halted arbitrary hikes while aligning growth with residents’ quality of life.

3- Tougher fees

An improved White Land Tax took effect in August, extending beyond vacant plots to include unoccupied built properties. Annual fees rose to as much as 10% of land value for parcels of 5,000 square meters or more within urban limits, raising the cost of land hoarding and incentivizing prompt development.

4- Investment openness and digital governance

A revised foreign ownership regime allowed non-Saudis - individuals and companies - to own property in designated zones under strict criteria, injecting international liquidity. Transparency was reinforced by the launch of the “Real Estate Balance” platform, providing real-time price indicators based on actual transactions and curbing phantom pricing.

5- Quality and urban standards

Policy shifted from quantity to quality with mandatory application of the Saudi Building Code and sustainability standards for all new developments, ensuring long-term operational value and preventing low-quality sprawl.

Structural shift

Sector specialists told Asharq Al-Awsat the measures represent a qualitative leap in market management, moving Riyadh from a scarcity and speculation-led cycle to a balanced market governed by genuine demand, efficient land use, disciplined contracts, and transparent indicators.

Khaled Al-Mobid, CEO of Menassat Realty Co., said the reforms were timely and corrective after years of rapid price escalation. He noted early positives: slowing price growth, a return to realistic negotiations, increased supply in some districts, and better-quality offerings focused on intrinsic value rather than quick appreciation.

Abdullah Al-Moussa, a real estate expert and broker, described the steps as addressing root causes, not symptoms.

He observed a behavioral shift, especially in northern Riyadh, from “hold and wait” to reassessment, alongside calmer price momentum, renewed interest in actual development, and clearer rental dynamics.

Saqr Al-Zahrani, another market expert, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the reforms tackled structural imbalances by breaking artificial scarcity created by undeveloped land banks.

Opening vast tracts north and west and introducing market-wide indicators restored “organized abundance,” aligning prices with real demand and purchasing power without heavy-handed intervention, he remarked.

He added that recent months have seen weaker demand for raw land and stalled auctions, contrasted with rising interest in off-plan sales and partnerships with developers.

Banks, too, have reprioritized toward projects with operational viability, lifting overall supply quality despite a temporary slowdown in some transactions.

Consumers, meanwhile, are showing greater patience and interest in self-build options, signaling a maturing market awareness.

Outlook

Experts expect the effects to continue through 2027, delivering broad price stability with limited corrections in overheated locations rather than sharp declines.

Homeownership, especially among young buyers, is projected to rise as capital shifts from land speculation to long-term development.

The 2025 decisions were not short-term fixes but the launch of a new social and economic trajectory for Riyadh’s property market, redefining real estate as a housing service and value-adding investment, not a speculative vessel.

As Riyadh advances toward becoming one of the world’s ten largest city economies, its real estate reset offers a model for aligning regulation with quality of life, transparency, and sustainable growth.


Deal to Export Oil from Kurdish Region to Continue with No Issues, Kurdish Rudaw Reports

A staff at an oilfield holds the flag of Kurdistan. (X)
A staff at an oilfield holds the flag of Kurdistan. (X)
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Deal to Export Oil from Kurdish Region to Continue with No Issues, Kurdish Rudaw Reports

A staff at an oilfield holds the flag of Kurdistan. (X)
A staff at an oilfield holds the flag of Kurdistan. (X)

Kurdistan broadcaster Rudaw quoted the ​vice president of Iraq's state oil company SOMO as saying ‌on Saturday that ‌the ‌oil ⁠export ​deal ‌between Baghdad and Erbil is set to be renewed with ⁠out issues, Reuters reported.

In September, ‌Iraq restarted ‍the ‍export of ‍oil from its Kurdish region to Türkiye after ​an interruption of more ⁠than two years following a deal between Baghdad and the Kurdish regional government.