Trump, EU Chief to Meet Sunday in Push for Trade Deal

 President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen speaks during a joint press conference with President of European Council Antonio Costa after the 25th EU-China summit in Beijing on July 24, 2025. (AFP)
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen speaks during a joint press conference with President of European Council Antonio Costa after the 25th EU-China summit in Beijing on July 24, 2025. (AFP)
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Trump, EU Chief to Meet Sunday in Push for Trade Deal

 President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen speaks during a joint press conference with President of European Council Antonio Costa after the 25th EU-China summit in Beijing on July 24, 2025. (AFP)
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen speaks during a joint press conference with President of European Council Antonio Costa after the 25th EU-China summit in Beijing on July 24, 2025. (AFP)

EU chief Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump said Friday they would meet in Scotland this weekend in a decisive push to resolve a months-long transatlantic trade standoff.

In a drive to slash his country's trade deficits, Trump has vowed to hit dozens of countries with punitive tariff hikes if they do not hammer out a pact with Washington by August 1.

The EU -- which is facing an across-the-board levy of 30-percent -- has been pushing hard for a deal with Trump's administration, while also planning retaliation should talks fall short.

Von der Leyen first announced the meeting, writing on X: "Following a good call with POTUS, we have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss transatlantic trade relations, and how we can keep them strong."

Arriving on UK soil late Friday, Trump confirmed he would meet the head of the European Commission, which has been negotiating with Washington on behalf of the 27-nation bloc.

"I'll be meeting with the EU on Sunday, and we'll be working on a deal," he told reporters as he touched down at Prestwick Airport near Glasgow.

"Ursula will be here -- a highly respected woman. So we look forward to that," Trump said.

"We'll see if we make a deal," added the president -- who reiterated earlier comments saying the chance of a deal was "50-50", with sticking points remaining on "maybe 20 different things."

"But we're meeting ... with the European Union. And that would be, actually, the biggest deal of them all, if we make it," he said.

The high-level meeting follows months of negotiations between top EU and US trade officials, and days of signals suggesting the sides were moving towards an agreement.

According to multiple European diplomats, the agreement under consideration would involve a baseline 15-percent US levy on EU goods -- the same level secured by Japan this week -- and potential carve-outs for critical sectors.

Von der Leyen's spokesperson Paula Pinho said "intensive negotiations" had been taking place at technical and political level in the run up to Sunday's meeting.

"Leaders will now take stock and consider the scope for a balanced outcome that provides stability and predictability for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic," she said.

Hit by multiple waves of tariffs since Trump reclaimed the White House, the EU is currently subject to a 25-percent levy on cars, 50 percent on steel and aluminium, and an across-the-board tariff of 10 percent, which Washington threatens to hike to 30 percent in a no-deal scenario.

The EU wants to avoid sweeping tariffs inflicting further harm on the European economy -- already suffering from sluggish growth -- and damaging a trading relationship worth an annual 1.6 trillion euros ($1.9 trillion) in goods and services.

EU member states gave the European Commission a mandate to pursue a deal to avoid hefty US tariffs, with retaliation held out as a last resort if talks fail.

Seeking to keep up the pressure in the final stretch of talks, EU states on Thursday backed a package of retaliation on $109 billion (93 billion euros) of US goods including aircraft and cars -- to kick in in stages from August 7 if there is no deal.

Most states prefer a deal to no deal -- even with undesirable levies of 15 percent -- but exemptions are key, with aircraft, steel, lumber, pharmaceutical products and agricultural goods under discussion, diplomats said.

Concerning steel, diplomats say a compromise could allow a certain quota to enter the United States, with amounts beyond that taxed at 50 percent.

Since launching its tariffs campaign, Trump's administration has so far unveiled just five agreements, including with Britain, Japan and the Philippines.

While EU hopes have been rising for a deal, the approaching August 1 deadline also comes with a sense of deja-vu: earlier this month, EU officials also believed they were on the cusp of a deal, before Trump hiked his tariff threat to 30-percent.

"The final decision is in the hands of President Trump," an EU diplomat stressed this week.



UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
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UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)

Britain's economic ‌growth prospects this year received the sharpest downgrade of any major economy in the OECD's interim forecast update on Thursday following the US-Israeli war ​on Iran, while inflation is set to rise faster too.

The Paris-based international body cut its 2026 forecast for British economic growth by half a percentage point to 0.7%, compared with a 0.4 percentage point downgrade for the euro zone and a 0.3 percentage point upgrade for the United States.

"Planned fiscal tightening and higher energy prices ‌are anticipated to keep ‌growth subdued in the United ​Kingdom, ‌though the ⁠impact ​will be ⁠attenuated by lower policy rates next year," Reuters quoted the OECD as saying in its report.

Following are further highlights from the report and other context:

Britain's growth forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3%.

Britain's inflation forecast for 2026 is revised up by 1.5 percentage points from December to 4.0%, the ⁠biggest upward revision of any large, advanced ‌economy.

UK inflation in 2027 ‌is forecast to be 2.6%, 0.5 percentage ​points higher than in ‌December and above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Poorer UK households spend more on gas and electricity than in other rich countries, though total energy spending makes up a smaller share of UK inflation than elsewhere.

The OECD expects the ‌BoE to keep interest rates unchanged this year then cut in Q1 2027 as inflation ⁠eases.

⁠Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility, in forecasts finalized just before the start of the conflict, predicted GDP growth of 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2027.

The BoE this month forecast inflation would rise to 3.0-3.5% over the next couple of quarters.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made boosting growth and reducing the cost of living top goals for his government.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves said the forecasts showed the war in the Middle East ​was affecting Britain but ​she would still focus on "regional growth, embracing AI and innovation, and establishing a closer relationship with the EU."


Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
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Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa

Gold prices fell on Thursday, weighed down by increased expectations of US Federal Reserve rate hikes this year as elevated oil prices stoked inflation worries, with investors awaiting clarity on Middle East de-escalation efforts.

Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,451.47 per ounce by 0811 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery lost 2.3% to $4,448.

"You're ‌seeing an ‌acceleration of the idea that... this war will ‌mean ⁠inflation and inflation ⁠will mean a response from central banks, which will mean higher interest rates," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Brent crude futures climbed back above $100 a barrel on concerns that protracted fighting in the Middle East will further disrupt energy flows.

Higher crude prices tend to fuel inflation, and while rising inflation typically boosts gold's appeal ⁠as a hedge, high interest rates weigh on ‌demand for the non-yielding asset.

Markets see ‌a 37% chance of a US rate hike by December this year ‌with almost no chance of a cut now, according to ‌CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Before the conflict, markets were expecting at least two rate cuts.

US President Donald Trump said Iran was desperate to make a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting the Iranian foreign ‌minister who said his country was reviewing a US proposal but had no intention of holding talks ⁠to wind down ⁠the conflict.

"In the next 24 to 48 hours, (gold prices) will just be about reacting to headlines about negotiations," said Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

"The really big moves will happen probably at the start of next week when it becomes clearer whether the US launches a ground invasion in Iran over the weekend."

Trump has vowed to hit Iran harder if Tehran fails to accept that the country has been "defeated militarily", White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday.

Spot silver fell 2.7% to $69.36 per ounce. Spot platinum was down 2.3% at $1,874.90, while palladium dropped 2.5% to $1,387.53.


Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
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Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

Oil prices jumped and equities fell Thursday as investors tracked developments in the Middle East amid hopes that US and Iranian officials will bring an end to a conflict that has ramped up fears of an unprecedented global energy crisis.

Markets have been buoyed since late Monday after Donald Trump backed down on a threat to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure and said the two sides were in peace talks.

But while crude prices are down from last week and the mood on trading floors has been better than most of March, uncertainty and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz -- through which around 20 percent of oil and gas passes -- continue to cast a dark shadow.

Washington presented a 15-point plan to end the war, including Iran giving up its enriched uranium and opening up the waterway, while Tehran's state-run TV reported officials had put forward their own five conditions for hostilities to end.

Trump on Wednesday threatened to "unleash hell" if Iran did not strike a deal, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country does not intend to negotiate.

But the US president also said Iran was taking part in peace talks and the denials were because negotiators feared being killed by their own side.

"Pressure on energy prices, shipping flows and broader financial conditions remains one of the few meaningful sources of leverage (Iran) retains," said Saxo Markets' Charu Chanana.

"There is therefore little incentive to relinquish that leverage prematurely, particularly if market stress strengthens its negotiating position.

However, she added: "It would be imprudent to assume diplomacy is absent simply because it is not visible. In conflicts of this nature, public rhetoric and private negotiation often diverge materially.

"Markets understand this dynamic, and they also tend to inflect before the political endgame is formally in place."

With investors holding on to hope that a deal can be struck, oil prices have stabilized this week, with Brent just above $100 and WTI around $90.

Both contracts rallied Thursday.

Stocks in Wall Street and Europe rose but Asian markets struggled after a two-day rally.

Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, Sydney, Taipei, Singapore, Manila, Bangkok and Jakarta fell along with London, Paris and Frankfurt.

City Index's Fiona Cincotta said for any recovery to gain traction, "investors will want to see clearer signs of de-escalation, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz".

Her remarks come after the head of the International Chamber of Commerce, John Denton, warned the conflict could cause the "worst industrial crisis" in decades.

"The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that the world is facing an energy crisis more severe than the oil shocks of the 1970s," he added.

"From a business perspective, we believe this could yet become the worst industrial crisis in living memory."

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization said disruptions to fertilizer supplies posed a double threat to global food security through scarcity and high prices, with a third of the global fertilizer supply normally transiting the Strait of Hormuz.