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IMF Raises Saudi Arabia’s Growth Forecast to 3.6% for 2025

A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (AFP)
A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (AFP)
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IMF Raises Saudi Arabia’s Growth Forecast to 3.6% for 2025

A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (AFP)
A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (AFP)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth in 2025 and 2026, citing expected increases in oil revenues and accelerating growth in non-oil sectors. The update places the Kingdom among the world’s fastest-growing economies, just behind India and China.

In its latest World Economic Outlook update, released Tuesday, the IMF now projects Saudi GDP growth at 3.6% in 2025 - up 0.6 percentage points from its April forecast. The Fund also lifted its 2026 projection to 3.9%, compared to its earlier estimate of 3.7%.

Among the 30 countries reviewed in the IMF report, only China saw a larger upward revision. The Kingdom’s revised forecast for 2025 also surpasses the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional average of 3.4%.

The upgrade reflects several key developments: the anticipated increase in oil exports following OPEC+’s decision to phase out voluntary supply cuts, stronger-than-expected oil prices, and sustained momentum in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy. An IMF official noted that strong domestic demand, fueled in part by major government-led projects, has further reinforced growth prospects.

The revised figures align closely with those from an IMF mission to Saudi Arabia in June, which estimated 2025 growth at 3.5%. That mission concluded that the Kingdom’s economy had demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of global headwinds. Non-oil sectors continue to expand steadily, inflation remains contained, and unemployment has fallen to record lows.

The IMF stressed the importance of ongoing structural reforms to support long-term, non-oil growth and economic diversification, which is seen as an essential priority amid global uncertainty.

It praised Saudi Arabia’s broad-based reforms in corporate regulation, governance, labor markets, and financial systems. New legislation covering investment frameworks and labor policies is expected to boost investor confidence and productivity.

This positive outlook comes as the Kingdom continues to implement fiscally disciplined policies. Ratings agency Fitch recently affirmed Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating at “A+” with a stable outlook, underscoring the country’s strong external balance sheet, low public debt, and robust ability to sustain growth without compromising financial stability.

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Business

Türkiye's Central Bank Lifts 2026 Inflation Forecasts

Türkiye's Central Bank headquarters is seen in Ankara, Türkiye in this January 24, 2014 file photo. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
Türkiye's Central Bank headquarters is seen in Ankara, Türkiye in this January 24, 2014 file photo. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
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Türkiye's Central Bank Lifts 2026 Inflation Forecasts

Türkiye's Central Bank headquarters is seen in Ankara, Türkiye in this January 24, 2014 file photo. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
Türkiye's Central Bank headquarters is seen in Ankara, Türkiye in this January 24, 2014 file photo. REUTERS/Umit Bektas

Türkiye's central bank on Thursday increased its estimates for inflation as officials try to rein in soaring price increases that have weighed on the economy for years.

The official inflation rate is now seen falling to between 15 and 21 percent by the end of this year, up from a previous forecast of 13 to 19 percent.

"We have increased our forecast range because of better visibility on certain risks," the central bank's governor Fatih Karahan said in a statement, without further detail, Reuters reported.

The forecast would still be a sharp decline from the annual inflation rate of 30.7 percent in January, following years of interest rate hikes in a bid to slow runaway price increases.

However, the official figures are disputed by ENAG, a group of independent economists that publishes its own data every month, with the organisation saying year-on-year inflation stood at 53.4 percent in January.

Türkiye has experienced double-digit inflation since 2019, making life increasingly more expensive for millions of people, after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered interest rate cuts in a bid to spur growth.

The cuts sent the lira plunging on currency markets, further fuelling inflation and leading Erdogan to reverse his unorthodox policy in 2023.

But in January the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 37 percent, citing a continued slowing of price increases.

 

 

 

 

Business

Mawani Reports 2.01% Increase in Container Throughput for January 2026

Mawani Reports 2.01% Increase in Container Throughput for January 2026
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Mawani Reports 2.01% Increase in Container Throughput for January 2026

Mawani Reports 2.01% Increase in Container Throughput for January 2026

Ports overseen by the Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) reported a 2.01% increase in container handling for January 2026, totaling 738,111 TEUs, up from 723,571 TEUs in January 2025. Transshipment containers rose significantly by 22.44%, reaching 184,019 TEUs compared to 150,295 TEUs the previous year.

However, the number of imported containers decreased by 3.23% to 284,375 TEUs, and exported containers dropped by 3.47% to 269,717 TEUs year-over-year, SPA reported.

Passenger numbers surged by 42.27%, totaling 143,566 passengers compared to 100,909 last year. Vehicle volumes increased by 3.31% to 109,097, and the ports received 886,908 heads of livestock, a 49.86% increase from the same period in 2025.

In terms of cargo tonnage, liquid bulk cargo rose by 0.28% to 14,102,495 tons, general cargo totaled 839,987 tons, and solid bulk cargo reached 4,263,168 tons. The total tonnage handled was 19,205,650 tons, reflecting a 3.04% decrease from the previous year. Vessel traffic recorded 1,121 ships, a slight decrease of 1.75%.

This increase in container throughput supports trade, stimulates the maritime transport industry, and enhances supply chains and food security. These achievements align with the National Transport and Logistics Strategy, reinforcing Saudi Arabia's position as a global logistics hub.

In 2025, Mawani ports achieved a 10.58% increase in total handled containers, reaching 8,317,235 TEUs, while transshipment containers for the year rose by 11.78% to 1,927,348 TEUs.

Business

Oil Prices Edge Lower as IEA Reduces Demand Forecast

Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
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Oil Prices Edge Lower as IEA Reduces Demand Forecast

Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo

Oil prices slipped on Thursday as investors weighed the International Energy Agency's lowering of its global oil demand forecast for 2026 against potential escalation of US-Iran tensions.

Brent crude oil futures were down 19 cents, or 0.27%, at $69.21 a barrel by 1232 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 8 cents, or 0.12%, to $64.55.

Global oil demand will rise more slowly than previously expected this year, the IEA said on Thursday while projecting a sizeable surplus despite outages that cut supply in January.

The Brent and WTI benchmarks reversed gains to turn negative after the IEA's monthly report, having derived support earlier from concerns over the US-Iran backdrop.

US President Donald Trump said after talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday that they had yet to reach a definitive agreement on how to move forward with Iran but that negotiations with Tehran would continue.

Trump had said on Tuesday that he was considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East if a deal is not reached with Iran. The date and venue of the next round of talks have yet to be announced.

A hefty build in US crude inventories had capped the early price gains. US crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, far exceeding the 793,000 increase expected by analysts in a Reuters poll.

US refinery utilization rates dropped by 1.1 percentage points in the week to 89.4%, EIA data showed.

On the supply side, Russia's seaborne oil products exports in January rose by 0.7% from December to 9.12 million metric tons on high fuel output and a seasonal drop in domestic demand, data from industry sources and Reuters calculations showed.