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Experts to Asharq Al-Awsat: Saudi Budget Strengthens Financial Sustainability

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
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Experts to Asharq Al-Awsat: Saudi Budget Strengthens Financial Sustainability

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia’s pre-budget statement for fiscal year 2026 underscores the government’s commitment to financial sustainability, economic growth, and empowering the private sector as the primary driver of long-term development, according to experts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat.

The Ministry of Finance on Tuesday released the pre-budget statement, projecting total expenditures at SAR1.313 trillion, revenues of SAR1.147 trillion, and a deficit of about 3.3 percent of GDP.

The figures signal that the government will continue its countercyclical, expansionary spending policies, focusing on national priorities with broad social and economic impact in line with the goals of Saudi Vision 2030.

The statement highlighted that since the launch of Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has undertaken structural reforms that improved the business environment, enhanced the role of the private sector, and advanced sustainable development. Preliminary estimates point to 4.6 percent growth in real GDP in 2026, led by strong performance in non-oil sectors.

Economists stressed that the government remains committed to development strategies while prioritizing spending efficiency.

Shura Council member Fadl al-Buainain said that Vision 2030 has focused on diversifying income sources, ensuring fiscal sustainability, and increasing non-oil revenues to reduce reliance on volatile oil prices.

He noted that the 2026 budget reflects a careful review of spending priorities.

“The government seeks to maximize the benefits of public expenditure by channeling resources toward projects with the highest economic and social impact. This approach emphasizes the value of citizens at the center of development and strengthens the economy’s ability to absorb major development programs.”

Al-Buainain stressed that essential public services will not be affected by this reprioritization, which remains aligned with the goal of improving quality of life under the National Transformation Program.

While projected revenues stand at SAR1.147 trillion, planned expenditures exceed that at SAR1.313 trillion, signaling continued expansionary spending to stimulate growth, empower the private sector, and attract further investment.

He pointed out that reforms have already increased non-oil revenues and shifted the economy structurally. “Non-oil activities now play a central role in driving growth, contributing an unprecedented 55.6 percent of GDP.”

He also highlighted a trade surplus of SAR98.9 billion in the first half of 2025, supported by strong non-oil exports, including re-exports.

Salem Baajajah, professor of economics at King Abdulaziz University, said Saudi Arabia is on track to achieve 4.4 percent GDP growth, supported by robust economic fundamentals and rising non-oil revenues.

He added that expansionary fiscal policies have boosted employment and reduced unemployment rates by driving projects with both economic and social returns.

Economic researcher Fadwa AlBawardi stressed that the 2026 budget strategy prioritizes fiscal sustainability and long-term growth. She said the government is reassessing spending priorities to ensure resources are directed to initiatives with significant impact while maintaining flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances.

AlBawardi added that empowering the private sector remains central: “The strategy ensures a competitive, investment-friendly environment that allows the private sector to continue as the main engine of economic transformation.”

She also underlined that citizens remain at the heart of budget planning, with a focus on protecting essential services and improving living standards.

“The government is pressing ahead with development strategies across ministries, emphasizing spending efficiency and ensuring balanced, inclusive growth across all regions and sectors,” she added.

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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.

Business

Aljadaan: Emerging Markets Account for 70% of Global Growth

Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
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Aljadaan: Emerging Markets Account for 70% of Global Growth

Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat

Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed Aljadaan stressed Sunday that the world economy is going through a “profound transition,” saying emerging markets and developing economies now account for nearly 60 percent of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in purchasing power terms and over 70 percent of global growth.

In his opening remarks at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, organized by the Saudi Ministry of Finance and the IMF in AlUla, the minister said these economies have become an increasingly important driver of global growth with their share of global economy more than doubling since 2010.

“Today, the 10 emerging economies in the G20 alone account for more than half of the world growth. Yet, they face a more complex and fragmented environment, elevated debt levels, slower trade growth and increasing exposure to geopolitical shocks.”

“Unfortunately, more than half of low income countries are either in or at the risk of debt distress. At the same time global trade growth has slowed at around half of what it was pre the pandemic,” Aljadaan added.

The Finance Minister stressed that the Saudi experience over the past decade has reinforced three lessons that may be relevant to the discussions at the two-day conference, which brings together a select group of ministers and central bank governors, leaders of international organizations, leading investors and academics.

“First, macroeconomic stability is not the enemy of growth. It is actually the foundation,” he said.

“Structural reforms deliver results only when institutions deliver. So there is no point of reforming ... if the institutions are unable to deliver,” he stated.

Finally, he said that “international cooperation matters more, not less, in a fragmented world.”

Business

Georgieva from AlUla: Growth Still Lacks Pre-pandemic Levels

Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Georgieva from AlUla: Growth Still Lacks Pre-pandemic Levels

Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Sunday that world growth still lacks pre-pandemic levels, expressing concern as she expected more shocks amid high spending and rising debt levels in many countries.

Georgieva spoke at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, organized by the Saudi Ministry of Finance and the IMF in AlUla.

The two-day conference brings together a select group of ministers and central bank governors, leaders of international organizations, leading investors and academics to deliberate on policies to global stability, prosperity, and multilateral collaboration.

Georgieva said that the conference was launched last year in recognition of the growing role of emerging market economies in a world of sweeping transformations.

“I came out of this gathering .... With a sense of hope for the pragmatic attitude and determination to pursue good policies and build strong institutions,” she said.

Georgieva stressed that “good policies pay off,” and said that growth rates across emerging economies reached four percent this year, exceeding by a large margin those of advanced economies that are around 1.5 percent.