IMF: Saudi Support Bolsters Yemen’s Economic Stability

Prime Minister Salem Bin Braik during his meeting with the Saudi Ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed Al-Jaber, following the announcement of Saudi support for Yemen (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Prime Minister Salem Bin Braik during his meeting with the Saudi Ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed Al-Jaber, following the announcement of Saudi support for Yemen (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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IMF: Saudi Support Bolsters Yemen’s Economic Stability

Prime Minister Salem Bin Braik during his meeting with the Saudi Ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed Al-Jaber, following the announcement of Saudi support for Yemen (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Prime Minister Salem Bin Braik during his meeting with the Saudi Ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed Al-Jaber, following the announcement of Saudi support for Yemen (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revealed that the latest Saudi financial package of $368 million to support Yemen’s budget and the energy and health sectors has helped stabilize the country’s macroeconomy.

According to a recent IMF report, Saudi financial support to Yemen, which totaled nearly $2 billion in 2023-2024, played a critical role in mitigating economic collapse. The Yemeni government was able to reduce its budget deficit to 1.9% of GDP in 2024.

After an eleven-year hiatus, the IMF announced the resumption of Article IV consultations with Yemen, describing the move as a “positive indicator” of renewed institutional engagement and more accurate economic data, despite ongoing conflict and its severe impact on both the economy and the population.

Yemeni Prime Minister Salem Bin Braik hailed the renewed dialogue with the IMF as a “pivotal moment in restoring Yemen’s presence within international financial institutions,” reflecting the government’s commitment to financial and administrative reforms despite numerous challenges.

The IMF report underscored that Yemen has endured one of the world’s worst humanitarian and economic crises since the conflict began in 2014. Real GDP contracted by approximately 27% over the past decade, while per capita income fell sharply. Inflation and currency devaluation have eroded household purchasing power.

The report noted that following the suspension of oil exports due to Houthi attacks on oil facilities in 2022, Yemen became a net oil importer for the first time in decades.

Today, more than half of the population requires urgent humanitarian aid, as the economy suffers from structural weaknesses, widespread food insecurity, and mass displacement.

Government revenues fell from 22.5% of GDP in 2014 to below 12% in 2024, with public debt exceeding 100% of GDP in government-controlled areas. The current account deficit widened to about 11% in 2024, and foreign exchange reserves dropped to less than one month of imports.

The IMF stressed that Saudi financial support, totaling roughly $2 billion in 2023-2024, helped curb further deterioration, allowing the government to reduce the budget deficit to 1.9% of GDP in 2024.

The IMF forecast a slight contraction of 0.5% in 2025, followed by gradual recovery starting in 2026 with 0.5% growth, reaching 2.5% by 2030. Recovery is expected to be driven by rising non-oil exports, remittances, and ongoing agricultural and development projects. Inflation is projected to ease as the exchange rate stabilizes and global food supplies improve.

The IMF further warned that ongoing political instability and renewed conflict could undermine reforms and delay economic recovery. External financial support remains crucial to maintain public services and prevent humanitarian deterioration.

The September 2025 Saudi package, alongside contributions from the UAE, represented a “positive step” toward macroeconomic stability.

The report emphasized that achieving fiscal balance will require unified tax and customs revenues, rationalized public spending and improved financial transparency.



Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The current oil supply crisis shows there is underinvestment in oil refining as demand holds resilient, Saudi state-owned Aramco's vice president of market analysis and sustainability, Musaab Al Mulla, said on Tuesday.

Around 3 ⁠million barrels per ⁠day of refining capacity closed between 2020 and 2023, Al Mulla said at the S&P Global Energy Middle East ⁠Petroleum and Gas Conference in London.

"Now we realize if you have those refineries you may have definitely mitigated the impacts of the crisis today," he said.

The war in Iran, attacks on energy infrastructure and ⁠Iran's effective ⁠closure of the Strait of Hormuz followed by a US naval blockade, have removed around 14 million bpd of oil supply from Middle East producers to the global market.


OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
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OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)

The war in the Middle East has dented economic growth prospects worldwide, with a more severe shock likely if no effective ceasefire is agreed before 2027, the OECD warned Wednesday.

Global economic growth is now forecast to slip to 2.8 percent for 2026 if Gulf exports of oil and gas return to pre-conflict levels in the third quarter, the group of 38 industrialized countries said in its quarterly update.

Previously the OECD had forecast full-year global growth of 2.9 percent.

But if the Middle East war continues into next year, however, global growth could slow to 2.1 percent, the OECD said -- well below the average annual growth of 3.4 percent seen from 2013 to 2019, before the Covid pandemic.

"The longer the disruptions last, the larger the economic and social costs become," the group's chief economist Stefano Scarpetta said in the report.

Many countries would risk falling into recession, he noted, and a drop in investment spending -- "including in energy-intensive AI" -- would likely push up unemployment.

Sustained high prices for energy as well as fertilizer and other key products from hydrocarbon production in the Gulf would weigh especially hard on developing countries that have "higher shares of energy and food in household consumption".

Even if the war sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February ends in the coming weeks, the OECD forecast global inflation rising to 4.0 percent this year from 3.4 percent in 2025.

In this "time-limited disruption scenario", the group expects US growth to slow to 2.0 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2027, after growing 2.1 percent last year.

In the eurozone, where many countries are highly dependent on energy imports, GDP growth will slump to 0.8 percent this year after 1.4 percent last year, assuming a Mideast ceasefire is secured in the coming weeks.


Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
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Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector expanded at the fastest pace in three months in May as domestic demand improved and supply chains stabilized, while business optimism remained subdued amid conflict in the region, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 52.8 in May from 51.5 in April. The 50 mark separates growth from contraction, Reuters reported.

Output accelerated at the ⁠fastest pace in ⁠three months after March's downturn following the start of the Iran war, as firms cited normalizing working conditions, revived contracts and stronger local demand.

Export sales fell for a third straight month, hit by shipping disruption, higher freight and fuel costs, geopolitical tensions and stronger competition. The pace of decline eased only modestly from April's survey-record contraction.

However, supply chains improved, with suppliers' delivery times shortening for the first time in three months as ⁠firms relied ⁠more on local vendors. Backlogs of work rose for an 11th consecutive month, albeit moderately.

“Overall, the latest PMI reading supports the expectation that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy will continue its upward trend during the remainder of 2026," said Naif Al-Ghaith, Riyad Bank's chief economist.