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IMF Raises Saudi Arabia’s Economic Growth to 4%  

A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (AFP)
A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (AFP)
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IMF Raises Saudi Arabia’s Economic Growth to 4%  

A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (AFP)
A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (AFP)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has increased its 2025 growth forecast for Saudi Arabia to 4%, its second upward revision in three months, citing notable improvements in the non‑oil manufacturing sector and the Kingdom’s continued participation in gradual OPEC+ production cuts.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF lifted its forecast for Saudi Arabia's GDP growth in 2025 to 4%, from 3% it projected in April. Growth in 2026 was revised slightly higher to 4% as well.

IMF mission chief for Saudi Arabia Amine Mati had previously said the Kingdom’s economic outlook has improved thanks to resilience in facing global challenges and improved oil revenues and non-oil activities.

The Saudi Finance Ministry last month forecasted real GDP growth of 4.4% in 2025, driven by the growth of non-oil activities, and 4.6% in 2026, also supported by the same factor.

In September, the IMF’s 2025 Article IV Consultation said the Saudi economy has demonstrated strong resilience to shocks, with non-oil economic activities expanding, inflation contained, and unemployment reaching record-low levels.

Saudi Arabia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 3.9% in the second quarter of 2025 driven by the non-oil sectors, according to government data estimates.

Non-oil activity grew by 4.6% compared to the same quarter last year, according to the Saudi General Authority for Statistics. Sectors like electricity, gas and water showed the highest growth followed by finance, insurance and business activities.

The economy grew across all sectors with oil up 3.8% and government activities growing 0.6%, the Authority said.

Middle East and North Africa

Also on Tuesday, the IMF said in its Outlook report that growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is expected to accelerate as the effects of oil production and shipping disruptions fade and the impact of ongoing conflicts diminishes.

The new growth forecast for the economies of the Middle East and North Africa in 2025 increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3% compared to the July version of the report, which was at 3.2%.

For 2026, the fund believes that the region's growth will accelerate to 3.7%, while its July forecast was only 3.4%.

Regarding Egypt, the report described its performance as “better than expected during the first half of the year,” which led the fund to adjust its growth expectations for the Egyptian economy in the current fiscal year 2025 – 2026 upwards by 0.4 percentage points to 4.5%.

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Business

Spain's Repsol Reportedly Wins Back Control of Venezuelan Oil Operations

FILE PHOTO: Logo of the Spanish oil company Repsol at a gas station in Vecindario, on the island of Gran Canaria, Spain, January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Borja Suarez/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Logo of the Spanish oil company Repsol at a gas station in Vecindario, on the island of Gran Canaria, Spain, January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Borja Suarez/File Photo
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Spain's Repsol Reportedly Wins Back Control of Venezuelan Oil Operations

FILE PHOTO: Logo of the Spanish oil company Repsol at a gas station in Vecindario, on the island of Gran Canaria, Spain, January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Borja Suarez/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Logo of the Spanish oil company Repsol at a gas station in Vecindario, on the island of Gran Canaria, Spain, January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Borja Suarez/File Photo

Spanish energy group Repsol is poised to take back operational control of its Venezuelan oil assets and boost production following a deal signed with the South American government, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.

Repsol is expected to announce the agreement as early as Thursday, FT added, citing a person familiar with ⁠the matter.

The agreement ⁠will include plans to triple production from its Venezuelan oil operations within three years and establish a "guaranteed" payment system that will avoid previous pitfalls under which the capital city ⁠of Caracas failed to pay up, according to the report.

Reuters could not immediately verify the report. Repsol did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for a comment.

Venezuela holds one of the largest oil reserves in the world but has dilapidated energy infrastructure.

In 2023, Repsol reached an agreement with Venezuela to continue operating its ⁠facilities ⁠there. The deal later lapsed after US President Donald Trump revoked licenses granted to Repsol and other Western companies to operate in the country.

After the US captured President Nicolas Maduro in January, Washington eased sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector, issuing general licenses that allow global energy companies to operate oil and gas projects in the OPEC member.

Business

China's Economy Beats Forecasts, but War Darkens Outlook

China's exports have helped support the economy but there are concerns about the impact on trade from the Middle East crisis. CN-STR/AFP
China's exports have helped support the economy but there are concerns about the impact on trade from the Middle East crisis. CN-STR/AFP
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China's Economy Beats Forecasts, but War Darkens Outlook

China's exports have helped support the economy but there are concerns about the impact on trade from the Middle East crisis. CN-STR/AFP
China's exports have helped support the economy but there are concerns about the impact on trade from the Middle East crisis. CN-STR/AFP

China's economy expanded more than expected in the first three months of the year, with official data Thursday indicating resilience in the face of a Middle East crisis that threatens to hit global growth.

The figures came despite a surge in world energy prices caused by the US-Israel war on Iran, which has stymied shipping through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas passes.

Analysts say China's diversified energy supply shields it from immediate shocks, though a potential global downturn caused by the war could weaken demand for its exports, which have been propping up the country's economy.

Gross domestic product in the world's second-largest economy expanded 5.0 percent year-on-year in January-March, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The reading was slightly higher than an AFP forecast of 4.8 percent based on a survey of economists.

During the first quarter, China's economy "achieved a strong start to the year, further demonstrating its resilience and vitality", the NBS said in a statement announcing the data.

The reading came days after the International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 global growth projection, warning that the world economy could be "thrown off course" by the Middle East war.

It also reduced its forecast for China to 4.4 percent growth, from a previous estimate of 4.5 percent.

"The global economy is facing this next test of resilience as signs of unevenness lie beneath the surface," it said, noting that China's "domestic activity -- especially in the housing sector -- lags behind exports".

Beijing has set a 2026 target of 4.5-5.0 percent growth -- the lowest in decades.

A years-long crisis in the property sector and a persistent slump in domestic spending have left leaders reliant on exports to meet growth targets.

- Trade headwinds -

Outbound shipments have boomed, exemplified by the country's whopping $1.2 trillion trade surplus last year.

But data this week showed export growth slowed sharply in March, indicating that war in the Middle East was already taking a toll.

Thursday's NBS data also showed retail sales grew 1.7 percent on-year in March, well short of a Bloomberg forecast of 2.4 percent.

Industrial production rose 5.7 percent, the NBS said, beating a Bloomberg estimate of 5.3 percent but well down from the 6.3 percent seen in January and February combined.

The first-quarter acceleration in growth was fueled by exports, Zichun Huang of Capital Economics wrote in a note.

"We think growth will soften a bit over the rest of the year," she said.

"While the Chinese economy is holding up well, it is becoming ever more dependent on external demand," she said, noting that the Iran war "is likely to add to this trend".

A major international trade fair kicked off this week in Guangzhou -- a metropolis in China's southern manufacturing heartland -- where attendees told AFP the war is impacting their business.

Chinese exporters and Middle Eastern buyers at the opening day of the Canton Fair on Wednesday gloomily told AFP the Iran war had pummeled orders and led to price hikes.

Wang Jun, the deputy head of China's customs administration, this week acknowledged "many uncertainties and instabilities in the external environment".

"The impact of international geopolitical conflicts on global industrial and supply chains is still evolving in a complex manner," he said.

Business

Saudi Arabia, US Sign Tax Information Exchange Agreement

Al-Jadaan and Bessent shake hands after signing the Tax Information Exchange Agreement in Washington. (X)
Al-Jadaan and Bessent shake hands after signing the Tax Information Exchange Agreement in Washington. (X)
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Saudi Arabia, US Sign Tax Information Exchange Agreement

Al-Jadaan and Bessent shake hands after signing the Tax Information Exchange Agreement in Washington. (X)
Al-Jadaan and Bessent shake hands after signing the Tax Information Exchange Agreement in Washington. (X)

Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan has held a series of meetings in Washington, D.C. to discuss strengthening bilateral economic cooperation and addressing challenges facing the global economy.

Al-Jadaan began his meetings on Wednesday by holding talks with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. They discussed the latest developments in the global economy and financial issues of common interest.

They signed a Tax Information Exchange Agreement to enhance tax cooperation, as well as facilitate the exchange of knowledge and technical expertise between the two sides.

As part of strengthening European economic relations, Al-Jadaan met with French Minister of the Economy, Finance, and Industrial, Energy, and Digital Sovereignty Roland Lescure.

The two sides discussed economic developments in the world, focusing on exploring new ways to deepen financial and industrial cooperation between the Kingdom and France, in a way that serves common interests.

Regarding relations with Pakistan, the Minister of Finance discussed with both his Pakistani counterpart, Muhammad Aurangzeb, and the Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan, Jameel Ahmad, prospects for financial and economic cooperation.

The discussions addressed ways to support financial stability and enhance joint work between financial institutions in both countries.