New Yorkers run on coffee. From high-end experimental boutique cafes to the humble sidewalk cart, millions of cups of java are sold every day.
But coffee-lovers are facing increasing pain as they pay for their simple espresso shots and elaborate pumpkin spiced lattes as the cost of beans has jumped 21 percent between August 2024 and August 2025 in the United States -- the world's largest market for coffee.
Climate shocks drove the cost of arabica soaring, with the beans hitting an all-time high in February 2025. That has been compounded by elevated transport costs and the 50 percent tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump since August 6 on many products from Brazil.
Brazil, the largest coffee producer, has been sanctioned by the Trump administration for its prosecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro for a coup attempt. It supplies 30 percent of the United States's unroasted beans.
"It's having a major impact on us, on small business owners, on farmers, across the board," Jeremy Lyman, co-founder of the New York-based chain Birch Coffee, told AFP.
Founded in 2009, the brand has 14 outlets citywide, roasting its own specialty coffee in Queens since 2015.
"The price of coffee on the market has just been on a steady incline over the last probably year. I think it's gone up about 55 percent from this time last year...it's impacting the prices that we charge," Lyman said.
He said that Brazil's production had become "unaffordable" forcing Birch to look elsewhere for beans with its importer "pushing pause" on its orders unless specially requested.
Cecafe, the Council of Coffee Exporters of Brazil, reports that exports to the United States have dropped almost 53 percent as of September compared to the year before with importers looking instead to Mexico, Peru and Ethiopia.
United by coffee
Lyman acknowledges market forces have meant price hikes for his customers, with Birch adding 50 cents to cups sold in-store, and $2 to $3 per bag of roasted coffee sold online.
"Typically, it'll be small, incremental (increases) because it also helps us get a little bit more time to navigate how we're going to be sourcing," he said, adding that he tried to give customers two weeks of warning.
Other cafes have adopted a novel approach: adding an adjustable premium to the base price of each cup according to what level Trump has set tariffs that day, Lyman said.
But customers will only swallow so much, the Birch founder warned, warning of a real risk of losing customers.
Jason Nickel, 45, said that while he still seeks out a daily caffeine hit, he is "a little more careful about where I go."
He cannot imagine paying more than $6 a cup, including tip, for cortado -- an espresso shot with a dash of milk foam.
Anna Simonovsky, 32, said that her upper limit had gone from $7 for a latte -- a milkier, frothier drink than a cortado -- to as much as $10. She enjoys coffee as a treat for special occasions, like a visit with a friend.
Trump recently threw a lifeline to the two-thirds of Americans who drink coffee daily when he placed coffee on a list of products not cultivated by US farmers in sufficient quantity -- potentially exempting it from tariffs, alongside tea and cocoa.
And in a rare glimmer of bipartisanship, coffee-loving Republicans and Democrats are jointly sponsoring a bill intended to protect coffee products.
