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Oil Steadies but Supply Fear Keeps it on Track for Weekly Gain

(FILES) A picture taken on April 9, 2011 shows Caspian Stream tanker near the Russian LUKOIL ice-resistant fixed platform LSP-1, built at the Astrakhansky Korabel shipyard, intended to drill and operate wells and collect and pre-treat reservoir content at Korchagin's oil field in the Russian sector of the Caspian Sea some 180 km outside Astrakhan. (Photo by MIKHAIL MORDASOV / AFP)
(FILES) A picture taken on April 9, 2011 shows Caspian Stream tanker near the Russian LUKOIL ice-resistant fixed platform LSP-1, built at the Astrakhansky Korabel shipyard, intended to drill and operate wells and collect and pre-treat reservoir content at Korchagin's oil field in the Russian sector of the Caspian Sea some 180 km outside Astrakhan. (Photo by MIKHAIL MORDASOV / AFP)
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Oil Steadies but Supply Fear Keeps it on Track for Weekly Gain

(FILES) A picture taken on April 9, 2011 shows Caspian Stream tanker near the Russian LUKOIL ice-resistant fixed platform LSP-1, built at the Astrakhansky Korabel shipyard, intended to drill and operate wells and collect and pre-treat reservoir content at Korchagin's oil field in the Russian sector of the Caspian Sea some 180 km outside Astrakhan. (Photo by MIKHAIL MORDASOV / AFP)
(FILES) A picture taken on April 9, 2011 shows Caspian Stream tanker near the Russian LUKOIL ice-resistant fixed platform LSP-1, built at the Astrakhansky Korabel shipyard, intended to drill and operate wells and collect and pre-treat reservoir content at Korchagin's oil field in the Russian sector of the Caspian Sea some 180 km outside Astrakhan. (Photo by MIKHAIL MORDASOV / AFP)

Oil prices were little changed on Friday, stabilizing after the previous day's surge and remaining on track for a weekly gain as fresh US sanctions on Russia's two biggest oil companies over the war in Ukraine fueled supply concerns.

Brent crude futures were up 12 cents, or 0.2%, at $66.11 by 0808 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures added 16 cents, or 0.3%, to $61.95.

"Everyone is waiting for signs of how big the impact is of the new sanctions on Russia. The market is in a wait-and-see mode to see what happens to the flows," said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS.

"In the past, similar sanctions have caused just temporary disruption."

Both benchmarks jumped more than 5% on Thursday and were set for about a 7% weekly gain, the biggest since mid-June, Reuters reported.

Six-month spreads for Brent <LCOc1-LCOc7> and US crude futures <CLc1-CLc7> returned to backwardation - when contracts for later loading fall below those for earlier loading - having briefly been in contango this week.

That indicates a shift among trader concerns from oversupply to undersupply, allowing them to sell at near-month higher prices instead of paying for storing oil for future sale.

US SANCTIONS TWO MAJOR RUSSIAN OIL SUPPLIERS

US President Donald Trump hit Russia's Rosneft and Lukoil with sanctions on Thursday to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Ukraine war. The two companies together account for more than 5% of global oil output.

The sanctions prompted Chinese state oil majors to suspend Russian oil purchases in the short term, trade sources told Reuters. Refiners in India, the largest buyer of seaborne Russian oil, are set to sharply cut Russian crude imports, industry sources said.

"Flows to India are at risk in particular," Janiv Shah, a vice president of oil markets analysis at Rystad Energy, said in a client note. "Challenges to Chinese refiners would be more muted, considering the diversification of crude sources and stock availability."

Kuwait's oil minister said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would be ready to offset any shortage in the market by raising production.

The US said it was prepared to take further action, while Putin derided the sanctions as an unfriendly act, saying they would not significantly affect the Russian economy and talking up Russia's importance to the global market.

Britain sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil last week and the European Union approved a 19th package of sanctions against Russia that includes a ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas.

The EU also added two Chinese refiners with a combined capacity of 600,000 barrels per day, as well as Chinaoil Hong Kong, a trading arm of PetroChina, to its Russian sanctions list, its official journal showed on Thursday.

Russia was the world's second-biggest crude oil producer in 2024 after the US, US energy data showed.

Investors are also focusing on a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next week as the pair work to defuse long-standing trade tensions between the superpowers and end a spate of tit-for-tat retaliatory measures.

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Business

Global Unemployment ‘Stable’ in 2026, but Decent Jobs Lacking

A Palestinian employee inspects sweet locally known as "al-Shatwi" (Winter) Crimbo sweets, as the Al-Arees factory gradually resumes operations after a hiatus caused by the Gaza war which led to shortages of raw materials used in their products, in Deir al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip on January 12, 2026, following a US-brokered truce that halted the two-year war. (AFP)
A Palestinian employee inspects sweet locally known as "al-Shatwi" (Winter) Crimbo sweets, as the Al-Arees factory gradually resumes operations after a hiatus caused by the Gaza war which led to shortages of raw materials used in their products, in Deir al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip on January 12, 2026, following a US-brokered truce that halted the two-year war. (AFP)
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Global Unemployment ‘Stable’ in 2026, but Decent Jobs Lacking

A Palestinian employee inspects sweet locally known as "al-Shatwi" (Winter) Crimbo sweets, as the Al-Arees factory gradually resumes operations after a hiatus caused by the Gaza war which led to shortages of raw materials used in their products, in Deir al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip on January 12, 2026, following a US-brokered truce that halted the two-year war. (AFP)
A Palestinian employee inspects sweet locally known as "al-Shatwi" (Winter) Crimbo sweets, as the Al-Arees factory gradually resumes operations after a hiatus caused by the Gaza war which led to shortages of raw materials used in their products, in Deir al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip on January 12, 2026, following a US-brokered truce that halted the two-year war. (AFP)

The global unemployment rate is expected to hold steady in 2026, the United Nations said Wednesday, but cautioned the labor market's seeming stability belies a dire shortage of decent jobs.

The UN's International Labor Organization said the global economy and labor market appeared to have weathered recent economic shocks better than expected.

But the ILO warned that efforts to improve global job quality had stagnated, leaving hundreds of millions of workers wallowing in poverty, even as trade uncertainty risked cutting into workers wages.

The global unemployment rate was estimated at 4.9 percent last year and the year before, and is now projected to remain at a similar level until 2027, a report from the UN labor agency said.

That amounts to 186 million people out of work this year, it said.

"Global labor markets look stable, but that stability is quite fragile," Caroline Fredrickson, head of the ILO's research department, told reporters, cautioning that the "apparent calm masks deeper and unresolved problems".

At a time when US President Donald Trump has slapped towering tariffs on friends and foes alike, the report cautioned that "disruptions caused by trade uncertainty, combined with ongoing long-term transformations in global trade, could significantly affect labor market outcomes".

Going forward, the ILO said its modelling suggested that a moderate increase in trade policy uncertainty "may reduce returns to labor and, as a consequence, real wages for both skilled and unskilled workers across all sectors", especially in Southeast Asia, Southern Asia and Europe.

The potential of trade to generate new employment opportunities was also being challenged by the ongoing disruptions, the report said, pointing out that 465 million jobs globally depended on foreign demand through exports of goods and services and related supply chains in 2024.

- Extreme poverty -

Another major concern highlighted by the ILO was the quality of jobs available.

"Resilient growth and stable unemployment figures should not distract us from the deeper reality: hundreds of millions of workers remain trapped in poverty, informality, and exclusion," ILO chief Gilbert Houngbo said in a statement.

Nearly 300 million workers continue to live in extreme poverty, earning less than $3 a day, Wednesday's report found.

At the same time, some 2.1 billion workers are expected to hold informal jobs this year, with limited access to social protection, labor rights and job security.

Young people remain particularly vulnerable, with unemployment among 15- to 24-year-olds projected to reach 12.4 percent for 2025, with around 260 million young people not engaged in education, employment or training, ILO said.

It warned that artificial intelligence and automation could exacerbate challenges, particularly for educated young people in wealthier countries seeking their first high-skill jobs.

"While the full impact of AI on youth employment remains uncertain, its potential magnitude warrants close monitoring," the report said.

The ILO also highlighted "entrenched gender inequalities", pointing out that women still account for just two-fifths of global employment.

"Stable labor markets are not necessarily healthy," Fredrickson said, stressing the growing need for "domestic policy choices to strengthen decent work outcomes".

"Without decisive action, today's stability risks giving way to deeper inequalities."

Business

China Had a Record $1.2 Trillion Trade Surplus in 2025, as Exports Rose 6.6% in December

Women dressed in traditional Chinese-style attire cross a street in Beijing, China, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026. (AP)
Women dressed in traditional Chinese-style attire cross a street in Beijing, China, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026. (AP)
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China Had a Record $1.2 Trillion Trade Surplus in 2025, as Exports Rose 6.6% in December

Women dressed in traditional Chinese-style attire cross a street in Beijing, China, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026. (AP)
Women dressed in traditional Chinese-style attire cross a street in Beijing, China, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026. (AP)

China’s trade surplus surged to a record of almost $1.2 trillion in 2025, the government said Wednesday, as exports to other countries made up for slowing shipments to the United States.

China's exports rose 5.5% for the whole of last year to $3.77 trillion, customs data showed, while imports flatlined at $2.58 trillion. The 2024 trade surplus was over $992 billion.

In December, China’s exports climbed 6.6% from the year before in dollar terms, better than economists’ estimates and higher than November’s 5.9% year-on-year increase. Imports in December were up 5.7% year-on-year, compared to November’s 1.9%.

China’s trade surplus surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time in November, when the trade surplus reached $1.08 trillion in the first 11 months of last year.

Economists expect exports will continue to support China’s economy this year, despite trade friction and geopolitical tensions.

“We continue to expect exports to act as a big growth driver in 2026,” said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas.

While China’s exports to the US have fallen sharply for most of last year since President Donald Trump returned to office and escalated his trade war with the world’s second-largest economy, that decline has been largely offset by shipments to other markets in South America, Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.

For the whole of 2025, China’s exports to the US fell 20%. In contrast, exports to Africa surged 26%. Those to Southeast Asian countries jumped 13%; to the European Union 8%, and to Latin America, 7%.

Strong global demand for computer chips and other devices and the materials needed to make them were among categories that supported China’s exports, analysts said. Car exports also grew last year.

China's strong exports have helped keep its economy growing at an annual rate close to its official target of about 5%. But that has triggered alarm in countries that fear a flood of cheap imports are damaging local industries.

China faces a “severe and complex” external trade environment in 2026, Wang Jun, vice minister of China’s customs administration, told reporters in Beijing. But he said China’s “foreign trade fundamentals remain solid.”

The head of the International Monetary Fund last month called for China to fix its economic imbalances and speed up its shift from reliance on exports by boosting domestic demand and investment.

A prolonged property downturn in China after the authorities cracked down on excessive borrowing, triggering defaults by many developers, is still weighing on consumer confidence and domestic demand.

China’s leaders have made increasing spending by consumers and businesses a focus of economic policy, but actions taken so far have had a limited impact. That included government trade-in subsidies over the past months that encouraged consumers to buy newer, more energy efficient items, such as home appliances and vehicles, and replace older models.

“We expect domestic demand growth to stay tepid,” said Rong of BNP Paribas. “In fact, the policy boost to domestic demand looks weaker than last year -- in particular the fiscal subsidy program for consumer goods.”

Gary Ng, a senior economist at French investment bank Natixis, forecasts that China’s exports will grow about 3% in 2026, less than the 5.5% growth in 2025. With slow import growth, he expects China's trade surplus to remain above $1 trillion this year.

Business

Saudi Arabia Signs Mineral Cooperation Deals with Chile, Canada, Brazil

The MoUs were signed on the sidelines of the Ministerial Roundtable of ministers concerned with mining affairs, held as part of the fifth annual Future Minerals Forum (FMF) in Riyadh. (SPA)
The MoUs were signed on the sidelines of the Ministerial Roundtable of ministers concerned with mining affairs, held as part of the fifth annual Future Minerals Forum (FMF) in Riyadh. (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia Signs Mineral Cooperation Deals with Chile, Canada, Brazil

The MoUs were signed on the sidelines of the Ministerial Roundtable of ministers concerned with mining affairs, held as part of the fifth annual Future Minerals Forum (FMF) in Riyadh. (SPA)
The MoUs were signed on the sidelines of the Ministerial Roundtable of ministers concerned with mining affairs, held as part of the fifth annual Future Minerals Forum (FMF) in Riyadh. (SPA)

Saudi Arabia, represented by the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources, signed on Tuesday three international memoranda of understanding (MoUs) on mineral resources cooperation with the Chile, Canada, and Brazil.

The MoUs were signed on the sidelines of the Ministerial Roundtable of ministers concerned with mining affairs, held as part of the fifth annual Future Minerals Forum (FMF), hosted by Riyadh from January 13 to 15.

The deals reflect the Kingdom’s efforts to expand its international partnerships and strengthen technical and investment cooperation in the mining and minerals sector in a manner that serves mutual interests and supports the sustainable development of mineral resources.

The signing ceremony included MoUs on cooperation in the mineral resources field with the Chilean Ministry of Mining, the Canadian Department of Natural Resources, and the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy.

The Ministerial Roundtable recorded the largest level of international representation of its kind globally, with participation from more than 100 countries, including all G20 members in addition to the European Union, as well as 59 multilateral organizations, industry associations, and non-governmental organizations.

The attendance reflects the standing the ministerial meeting has attained as a leading international platform for aligning perspectives, building partnerships, and developing practical solutions to global challenges in the mining and minerals sector.