With no direct negotiations or meaningful international monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program, and growing uncertainty over the size of its stockpile of enriched material, fears are rising across the region that a fresh confrontation between Iran and Israel has become a matter of time.
Although the likelihood of war appears high, most analysts say the moment has not yet arrived, as both sides continue rebuilding their military capabilities at a rapid pace amid unprecedented diplomatic paralysis.
Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says the chance of a new war between Iran and Israel is very high, but adds that indicators do not point to it being imminent.”
He told Asharq Al-Awsat that both sides will likely try to delay the inevitable through limited diplomatic efforts to contain escalation, while frantically rebuilding their arsenals.
Escalation and denial of mediation with Washington
Iran continues to issue threats while insisting on its conditions for any future talks, projecting a sense of confidence that has been reflected in statements by several Iranian officials.
They have stressed their readiness to respond “with greater force” to any Israeli attack, while denying that Tehran has sent messages or shown willingness to negotiate with Washington. Some of these warnings, analysts say, have even been channeled through outlets operating from within the US capital itself.
Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, denied that Tehran had sought to lift sanctions through any mediation or correspondence with the US administration, insisting that Iran “will not surrender to American hegemonic tendencies even if that means facing a new confrontation.”
Larijani said “the American narrative about Iran’s weakness is ridiculous,” adding that the country “has chosen the path of resistance despite economic hardships,” and “will not burden itself with empty talk from any government.”
Nadimi says Iran’s hardened rhetoric in recent weeks reflects “growing confidence within the regime,” whose leaders believe their performance during the last twelve-day war with Israel was “successful” and earned them domestic momentum.
Iran, he says, “believes it can perform even better in any future confrontation after reactivating its missile and drone production lines around the clock.”
Nuclear stalemate and absence of international oversight
Analysts say the region has entered a phase of “dangerous stagnation” following the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal and the return of strict US sanctions, as Iran continues to bar International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors from accessing suspected enrichment sites, including the new facility under the Pickaxe mountain.
According to IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, Iran still holds about 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, a quantity nearing weapons-grade levels that has heightened Israeli concern that Tehran is approaching a “red line.”
Some warn that continued uncertainty over Iran’s nuclear capabilities “may push Israel to act again to complete what it sees as an unfinished mission during the last war.”
Iran, however, appears increasingly willing to deter such action, arguing that any new attack would offer an opportunity to restore balance and shed the image of weakness left by the previous conflict.
Since the end of the brief military confrontation between Iran and Israel last summer, regional power dynamics have shifted markedly.
Iran now appears more isolated than at any time since the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, while several Arab states have strengthened their influence in Washington through close economic and strategic ties with President Trump’s administration, which continues to support Israel politically and militarily.
Even so, these states are working to keep communication channels open with Tehran to avoid a full-scale regional war. They do not want another conflict, but recognize that Iran, despite its relative weakness, remains capable of sowing turmoil through its regional proxies.
This vulnerability, Nadimi says, “may make Iran more dangerous because it could resort to reckless options in an attempt to restore its regional stature.”
No alternative to force
On the Israeli side, the government does not hide its intention to resume military operations against Iran “the moment it moves closer to producing a nuclear weapon.”
Tel Aviv believes containing Iran’s nuclear program “will not be achieved through negotiations, but through preemptive strikes,” even as Arab states increase pressure on Washington to rein in any uncalculated Israeli escalation.
Chances of returning to the negotiating table now appear almost nonexistent, particularly after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared that “America’s arrogant nature accepts nothing but surrender,” signaling rejection of any talks under US terms.
Most assessments converge on the view that any future confrontation between Iran and Israel, if it occurs, will be broader and bloodier than previous rounds.
Tehran is preparing to use its missile and drone arsenal on an unprecedented scale, while Israel continues to deliver precision strikes on sites believed to house secret enrichment facilities.
