EU, Africa Leaders to Talk Trade and Minerals, as Ukraine Looms Large

Angola this year celebrated 50 years since its independence from Portugal. Julio PACHECO NTELA / AFP
Angola this year celebrated 50 years since its independence from Portugal. Julio PACHECO NTELA / AFP
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EU, Africa Leaders to Talk Trade and Minerals, as Ukraine Looms Large

Angola this year celebrated 50 years since its independence from Portugal. Julio PACHECO NTELA / AFP
Angola this year celebrated 50 years since its independence from Portugal. Julio PACHECO NTELA / AFP

European and African leaders gather in Angola Monday for a summit aimed at deepening economic and security ties that will serve as a backdrop to emergency talks on Ukraine.

France's Emmanuel Macron, Germany's Friedrich Merz and Kenya's William Ruto are among dozens of European Union and African leaders expected in Luanda amid a US-European rift over a Washington plan to end the Ukraine conflict.

Talks with African nations will center on trade, migration and critical raw materials.

But EU minds will in part be focused on efforts to push back at a draft plan by US President Donald Trump to stop Russia's war in Ukraine, proposals initially seen as heavily tilted in favor of Moscow.

After top US and Ukrainian representatives met in Geneva on Sunday for talks on a new version of the proposal, EU leaders were to hold a "special meeting" on the sidelines of the Luanda gathering on Monday.

There is "still a lot of work to be done on the 28-point plan", Finnish President Alexander Stubb told AFP in Johannesburg on Sunday.

The seventh gathering of its kind, the two-day Angola summit comes on the heels of a G20 meeting in South Africa where a US boycott underscored geopolitical fractures.

It marks 25 years of EU-African Union relations -- ties that analysts say need revamping if Europe wants to hold on to its role as the continent's top partner.

Africa has emerged as a renewed diplomatic battleground, with China, the United States and Russia competing for its minerals, energy potential and political support.

The EU is the leading supplier of foreign direct investment to the continent and its leading commercial counterpart. Trade in goods and services hit 467 billion euros ($538 billion) in 2023, according to Brussels.

Yet it has suffered setbacks, at times fueled by resentment at the West's colonial past, with China securing strategic resources in some countries and Russia taking over as preferred security partner in others.

"We don't have that situation anymore where Europe was the only partner," Geert Laporte of ECDPM, a European think tank said. EU capitals now need to come up with an "offer that is attractive enough to beat" the competition, he added.

That would require investments in infrastructure, energy and industrial projects that generate employment and economic growth in Africa -- and a move away from lofty statements of support, observers say.

"Africa is looking not for new declarations but for credible, implementable commitments," said AU spokesman Nuur Mohamud Sheekh.

Tackling illegal migration to Europe and security cooperation are on the agenda, as is a diplomatic push to grant Africa a stronger voice in global governance bodies.

But boosting trade will likely be the top priority, as US tariffs buffet both continents.

The EU is expected to offer its expertise to help build up intra-African trade, which currently accounts for a paltry 15 percent of the total, diplomats said.

It will also seek to secure critical minerals needed for its green transition and ease its dependency on China for rare earths, essential for tech and electronic goods.

The 27-nation bloc will likely showcase new investments under the Global Gateway -- a massive infrastructure plan that Brussels hopes can counter China's growing influence.

Summit-host Angola is home to one of the EU initiative's signature undertakings: the Lobito corridor, a railway project funded in partnership with the United States to connect mineral-rich areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia to the Atlantic coast.

EU diplomats have been at pains to present such projects as win-wins but critics retort that the scheme repeats some extractive colonial practices and has yet to deliver significant improvements for local communities.

"Investment must move from PowerPoint to the factory floor," said Ikemesit Effiong, of the Nigeria-based consultancy SBM Intelligence.

"Europe's credibility now depends on whether it can support the delivery of projects that create value in Africa, not just visibility for Brussels."



Iranian Gas to Iraq Resumes After South Pars Attack

An Iranian man walks along the phase 15-16 of the South Pars gas field facilities in the southern Iranian port of Assaluyeh on the shore of the Gulf on January 22, 2014. (AFP)
An Iranian man walks along the phase 15-16 of the South Pars gas field facilities in the southern Iranian port of Assaluyeh on the shore of the Gulf on January 22, 2014. (AFP)
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Iranian Gas to Iraq Resumes After South Pars Attack

An Iranian man walks along the phase 15-16 of the South Pars gas field facilities in the southern Iranian port of Assaluyeh on the shore of the Gulf on January 22, 2014. (AFP)
An Iranian man walks along the phase 15-16 of the South Pars gas field facilities in the southern Iranian port of Assaluyeh on the shore of the Gulf on January 22, 2014. (AFP)

Iranian gas supplies to Iraq have resumed at a rate of five million cubic meters per day, the Iraqi electricity ministry said on Saturday, according ‌to the state ‌news agency.

Flows had ‌been ⁠halted after Israel ⁠attacked Iran's main gas field, South Pars, on Wednesday.

The current five million cubic meters is a fraction ⁠of the contracted 50 ‌million ‌cubic meters.

Iraqi officials ‌say volumes will increase gradually, ‌but have provided neither a timeframe nor details of the damage to ‌the Iranian gas facilities.

"Following the resumption of ⁠Iranian ⁠gas supplies, the national grid has recorded stability in production at 14,000 megawatts," Ahmed Moussa, an electricity ministry spokesperson, was quoted as saying by the state news agency.


Trump to Be Guest of Honor at Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative Summit in Miami

Trump delivers a speech at last year's edition of the event. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Trump delivers a speech at last year's edition of the event. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Trump to Be Guest of Honor at Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative Summit in Miami

Trump delivers a speech at last year's edition of the event. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Trump delivers a speech at last year's edition of the event. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The Future Investment Initiative (FII) Institute announced that US President Donald Trump will participate as a guest of honor and speaker at the fourth edition of the “Priority Future Investment Initiative” summit in Miami, scheduled to be held from March 25 to 27.

Trump is scheduled to deliver a keynote speech in person during the summit's closing session on March 27. The appearance marks the second time Trump has addressed this international gathering of leaders, investors, and decision-makers on the platform, reflecting the growing strategic importance of this summit in global economic circles.

Trump's participation comes at a very sensitive time for the global economy, which is reeling under the weight of escalating energy crises and sharp jumps in oil prices that have exceeded the $100 mark.

The global audience in Miami will be waiting to see Trump's vision on how to manage these developments and his philosophy towards the movement of capital in light of current geopolitical conflicts.

In last year's edition, Trump reaffirmed that the golden age of the United States had officially begun, considering the economic progress that had occurred since he took office to be "amazing."

This year's summit is being held under the slogan "Capital in Motion," where it seeks to explore how capital moves, adapts, and leads in a rapidly fragmenting world.

The agenda focuses intensively on the role of investment, technology, and policies in achieving sustainable and inclusive growth, while highlighting Latin America region and the Americas as a center of the current global transformation.

The summit brings together an elite group of senior officials, investors, and innovators, and prominent from the Saudi side is a high-level presence that includes the Governor of the Public Investment Fund and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Future Investment Initiative Foundation Yasir Al-Rumayyan, Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan, Minister of Tourism Ahmed Al-Khateeb, and the Ambassador of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques to the United States, Princess Reema bint Bandar Al Saud.

The list of speakers also includes prominent names, such as Steve Witkoff, the US envoy to the Middle East, and Dina Powell McCormick, Vice President of Meta, in addition to the participation of Donald Trump Jr.

The slogan of the fourth edition, "Capital in Motion," reflects an accelerated global reality that knows no stillness, where resources, talents, and ideas flow across borders, industries, and technologies at an unprecedented pace. In light of slowing global growth, persistently high interest rates for longer, and sharp geopolitical rifts, the summit is redrawing the map of investment returns.

The summit is expected to attract more than 1,500 delegates from around the world, forming an economic bridge linking the Middle East, the United States, and the emerging Latin American markets.


IMF Says Gulf Buffers, Export Flexibility Can Absorb War Shock

IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack speaks during a press conference. (Reuters file)
IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack speaks during a press conference. (Reuters file)
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IMF Says Gulf Buffers, Export Flexibility Can Absorb War Shock

IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack speaks during a press conference. (Reuters file)
IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack speaks during a press conference. (Reuters file)

The International Monetary Fund said that the economic impact of the ongoing conflict on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states will depend on its duration, scope and intensity, with strong financial buffers and export flexibility expected to limit the fallout.

IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack noted that outcomes will vary by country, largely depending on geographic location and the ability to resume exports. She explained that higher oil prices could help some countries offset production losses either partially or fully, depending on how quickly export flows recover.

She pointed to the Gulf’s substantial sovereign buffers and solid economic foundations, built through years of structural reforms aimed at diversifying income and strengthening logistics infrastructure. These measures have improved the region’s resilience to external shocks.

The IMF’s assessment broadly aligns with recent analysis by ratings agency Standard & Poor’s, which highlighted Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline as a strategic alternative export route that reduces reliance on key maritime chokepoints.

Elevated oil prices may also compensate for declining output, while the region’s large financial reserves are expected to support a swift recovery once the conflict subsides.

Kozack also highlighted pressure on regional financial markets, with Gulf stock indices declining and bond spreads widening in line with global volatility driven by inflation concerns and rising geopolitical risks.

Economists broadly view the region’s ample financial assets and foreign reserves as a buffer that will support a quicker rebound. Lessons from past energy crises have also helped Gulf states develop more flexible financial and logistics systems.

Standard & Poor’s recently underscored Saudi Arabia’s strong fiscal position and stable credit rating, citing substantial financial buffers and prudent policies. It also noted that alternative export routes such as the East–West pipeline allow the Kingdom to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, reducing risks to trade and growth.

Inflation risk

At the global level, the IMF is closely monitoring disruptions to energy markets, warning that sustained price increases could drive inflation higher and slow economic growth.

Oil and gas prices have surged by more than 50 percent over the past month, with Brent crude rising above $100 per barrel. If maintained for a year, this could push global inflation up by about 40 basis points and reduce economic output by between 0.1 and 0.2 percent, according to the Fund.

The IMF has signaled it stands ready to support member states, although no requests for emergency financing have been received so far.

It remains in close contact with finance ministers and central bank governors as the conflict enters its third week with no clear end in sight.

Kozack added that central banks should closely monitor whether inflation pressures extend beyond energy prices and whether inflation expectations remain stable.

The Fund is expected to incorporate the impact of the conflict into its updated global economic forecasts, due in mid-April during its Spring Meetings with the World Bank.