Saudi Budget Forum Reveals Govt. Spending Now Independent of ‘Oil Cycle’

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan and Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim attend the Saudi Budget Forum (Saudi 2026 Budget Forum)
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan and Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim attend the Saudi Budget Forum (Saudi 2026 Budget Forum)
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Saudi Budget Forum Reveals Govt. Spending Now Independent of ‘Oil Cycle’

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan and Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim attend the Saudi Budget Forum (Saudi 2026 Budget Forum)
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan and Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim attend the Saudi Budget Forum (Saudi 2026 Budget Forum)

Saudi Arabia’s 2026 budget forum, held a day after the Cabinet approved the new fiscal plan under the chairmanship of Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman, served as a high-level platform to explain the budget’s objectives and strategic direction.

Officials said the budget aims to balance fiscal prudence with the acceleration of Vision 2030’s third phase, intensifying efforts to implement its programs and projects to deliver sustainable economic and social impact.

The Crown Prince has repeatedly stressed that citizens’ welfare remains the government’s top priority.

The Cabinet approved the 2026 budget on Tuesday with total spending of 1.31 trillion riyals ($349.3 billion) and projected revenues of 1.15 trillion riyals ($306 billion), implying a deficit of 165 billion riyals ($43.9 billion).

Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said the government had overcome a key structural challenge by ending the link between public spending and oil price cycles. “Expenditure is now increasing in a studied, deliberate manner, away from the volatility of the oil sector,” he said.

Economy and Planning Minister Faisal Alibrahim said the kingdom is entering a new phase in which artificial intelligence will become the main driver of non-oil growth, reshaping the economy.

Technology, he said, will amplify economic returns and allow Saudi companies such as HUMAIN to play a leading role in the future economy, similar to the role Aramco played in the energy sector.

Officials said this approach is part of a broader strategy to strengthen institutional capacity and expand private-sector partnerships to sustain the momentum of non-oil growth, projected to remain between 4.5 and 6 % in coming years.

Fiscal Policy Shift: Spending Decoupled from Oil

At the forum’s opening session, al-Jadaan outlined a new fiscal policy designed to delink spending from oil-revenue fluctuations — a structural reform marking a turning point in Saudi financial management.

“The biggest challenge in previous years was that spending moved in line with the economic cycle,” he said. “Under the current policy, spending now grows in a disciplined and planned way.”

He said the shift ensures steady non-oil growth regardless of oil-market swings. The minister noted that the oil sector had recorded “negative growth for eight years,” underscoring the need for this policy change.

Al-Jadaan added that the government has capped public debt at 40 % of GDP and expects non-oil revenues this year to reach 501 billion riyals ($133.4 billion), accounting for almost 46 % of total revenues — the highest share in five years.

He said debt levels were not a concern “as long as returns exceed costs,” adding: “Debt in itself is not good on a personal level, and the same applies to the state — but there are exceptions.”

He stressed that “the government’s goal is not to raise taxes but to expand the size of the economy.”

Economic Transformation Delivering ‘Large Real Returns’

Alibrahim said Vision 2030’s transformation drive is producing “very large real returns,” reflected in strong growth across sectors. He emphasized that quality growth, not just quantity, will define the next stage.

He said 74 economic activities have grown by more than 5 % annually over the past five years, while 37 have expanded by over 10%. “The non-oil economy is now the foundation of sustainable growth,” he said, noting that cumulative growth since 2015 has exceeded 30% and reliance on oil revenues has fallen from 90 to 68%.

Non-oil growth is expected to average between 4.5 and 6% annually in the coming years.

Private-sector participation, he said, remains essential to sustaining this trajectory. Its contribution to GDP has risen from 30 to 50%, with further room for expansion “provided projects are executed at the right cost.”

Alibrahim said hundreds of international firms have entered the Saudi market, and domestic investment has surged, showing the kingdom’s progress in building a competitive business climate. “Opening long-term opportunities for the private sector is crucial to creating quality jobs and achieving sustainable growth,” he said.

He estimated that infrastructure investment needs would reach 3.5 trillion riyals over the next decade, calling infrastructure “one of the fastest-growing asset classes globally.”

The minister said artificial intelligence will power the next phase of economic diversification, boosting productivity, maximizing returns, and attracting global talent and technology firms. He cited HUMAIN, a Public Investment Fund- and Aramco-backed firm, as poised to take a pioneering role in the future economy “just as Aramco did for decades in energy.”

Foreign Property Ownership and Housing

Housing Minister Majed al-Hogail said the government will begin implementing a new law next month allowing foreigners to own property in Saudi Arabia. The legislation, he said, is intended to bring balance to the real-estate market through the white-land fee policy.

He said development housing programs for low-income families had enabled more than 50,000 households to acquire homes and protect over 16,000 families from default.

Al-Hogail said the Finance Ministry and the central bank had provided 46.6 billion riyals to inject liquidity into housing programs. More than 250,000 citizens benefited from mortgage guarantees for those with financial challenges.

He said over 20,000 rental contracts have been signed under market-balancing initiatives, with plans to add 60,000 housing units next year and 100,000 under off-plan sales. The housing program aims to grant ownership to 20,000 families by 2026.

Logistics Hub Ambitions

Transport and Logistics Minister Saleh al-Jasser said Saudi Arabia is witnessing a major transformation toward becoming a global logistics hub and a model of integrated mobility.

Private-sector investment in transport and logistics has exceeded 280 billion riyals across aviation, maritime, rail, and road services, he said.

The aviation sector, he added, is expanding rapidly with more than 500 aircraft on confirmed order for national carriers. Passenger routes have increased to 172 from 100 before the pandemic, with a target of 250 by 2030.

Projects include expanding King Abdulaziz Airport, building King Salman Airport, opening new airports in Jazan and Jouf, and launching an additional national carrier in the Eastern Province.

Air-freight volumes grew 30% last year, with a goal of surpassing 3.5 million tons by 2030. The rail network now spans 6,000 kilometers, with plans to double its length, move 30 million tons of freight and 10 million passengers, and add 10 new passenger trains.

Building a World-Class Labor Market

Human Resources and Social Development Minister Ahmed al-Rajhi said Saudi Arabia is crafting a new strategy to make its labor market among the best globally.

He said the 2020 Labor Market Strategy introduced 28 reform initiatives, 94% of which have been implemented. His ministry participates in eight of the 11 Vision 2030 programs and has completed most of its 100 related initiatives.

The number of Saudis working in the private sector rose from 1.7 million to 2.5 million in four years, he said. Engineering jobs grew from 52,000 to 218,000 Saudi nationals, and freelance work expanded to 430,000 workers nationwide.

Tourism Growth

Deputy Tourism Minister Princess Haifa Al Saud said the number of visitors to the kingdom reached 116 million, with spending totaling 275 billion riyals.

Tourists from Europe accounted for 14% of arrivals and those from East Asia and the Pacific 15%. Domestic tourism spending climbed to 105 billion riyals by the end of the third quarter of 2025, up 18% year-on-year, reflecting the sector’s growing role in diversifying revenue sources.

Defense Industries and Localization

General Authority for Military Industries Governor Ahmed al-Ohali said the sector has undergone a major transformation over the past six years, driven by regulatory reforms and investment incentives.

He said the number of licensed defense companies jumped from fewer than five in 2018 to more than 340 in 2024, while local military spending rose from 4 to 25% of total outlays and local content reached 40%.

 

 



World Shares Are Mixed and US Futures Slip as Brent Hovers Above $100 a Barrel

 A person walks near a stock price monitor showing Nikkei index at a security company Tuesday, March 17, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)
A person walks near a stock price monitor showing Nikkei index at a security company Tuesday, March 17, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)
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World Shares Are Mixed and US Futures Slip as Brent Hovers Above $100 a Barrel

 A person walks near a stock price monitor showing Nikkei index at a security company Tuesday, March 17, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)
A person walks near a stock price monitor showing Nikkei index at a security company Tuesday, March 17, 2026, in Tokyo. (AP)

Shares were mixed in Europe and Asia on Tuesday after a drop in oil prices helped send the US stock market to its best day since the war in Iran began.

The reprieve in prices for crude was short-lived, with Brent crude climbing nearly 4% early Tuesday to $104.13 a barrel. US benchmark crude also climbed, to $97.53 per barrel after dipping to about $93 on Monday.

US futures fell back, with the contracts for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.3%.

In Asian trading, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 gave up early gains to slip 0.1% to 53,700.39 and the Kospi in South Korea jumped 1.6% to 5,640.48.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.1% to 25,668.54, while the Shanghai Composite index dropped 0.9% to 4,049.91.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.4% to 8,614.30 after the central bank hiked its benchmark interest rate to 4.1%.

Citing higher fuel prices, the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday lifted the cash rate from 3.85% which it set at its Feb. 3 meeting in response to surging inflation. That rise was Australia’s first since November 2023.

Taiwan's Taiex rose 1.5% and India's Sensex picked up 0.6%.

On Monday, the S&P 500 climbed 1% for its biggest gain in five weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.8% and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.2%.

The driver for markets has been oil prices, which have spiked from roughly $70 before the United States and Israel began their attacks on Iran. In response, Iran has nearly halted traffic through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil typically sails from the Gulf to customers worldwide. That has oil producers cutting production because their crude has nowhere to go.

The worry in financial markets is that if the strait remains closed for a long time, it could keep enough oil off the market to drive inflation up to a debilitating level for the global economy.

“The panic is still there, just dialed down a notch as crude slipped off the boil. Brent easing back toward $100 flipped the tape from bunker mentality to opportunistic risk-taking in a heartbeat,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.

President Donald Trump over the weekend demanded that other countries hurt by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz “take care of that passage” and said his country “will help - A LOT!”

The US and Israel have kept pummeling what they describe as military targets in Iran’s capital, and Israel stepped up its campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. More than 1 million people have been displaced in Lebanon — roughly 20% of the nation’s population — as UN peacekeepers say Israel is massing ground troops along the border.

Uncertainty over the war's scope and duration have roiled financial markets since the war began just over two weeks ago, though markets have a track record of bouncing back relatively quickly from military conflicts. Many professional investors are expecting that to be the case again, if oil prices don't go too high for too long. That has helped keep US stock prices near their record levels.

Higher prices are complicating the Federal Reserve's mission of balancing growth and inflation as President Donald Trump pushes the central bank to slash interest rates. Traders do not expect the Fed to cut rates at its policy meeting that wraps up on Wednesday.

Nvidia, whose chips are powering much of the world’s move into artificial-intelligence technology rose 1.6% on Monday as its CEO, Jensen Huang, talked up AI's possibilities at a conference, saying he foresaw $1 trillion in demand for AI chips through 2027. It was the strongest single force lifting the S&P 500.

In other dealings early Tuesday, the US dollar rose to 159.18 Japanese yen from 159.05 yen. The euro slipped to $1.1498 from $1.1507.


Gold Firms as Investors Assess Middle East Fallout ahead of Policy Decisions

 AFP_A salesperson displays gold bangles for sale in a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul
AFP_A salesperson displays gold bangles for sale in a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul
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Gold Firms as Investors Assess Middle East Fallout ahead of Policy Decisions

 AFP_A salesperson displays gold bangles for sale in a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul
AFP_A salesperson displays gold bangles for sale in a gold shop at the Grand Baazar in Istanbul

Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, buoyed by easing fears of prolonged disruptions to oil shipments, while investors assessed the economic impact of the Middle East conflict ahead of a slew of central bank policy decisions this week.

Spot gold was up 0.2% at $5,013.71 per ounce as of 0644 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery rose 0.3% to $5,018.10.

"Gold ‌prices pulled back ‌in the first 24 hours of ‌trade ⁠this week. That seems ⁠to echo the markets' positive response to Iran's foreign minister's comments... In response, crude oil pulled back, yields ticked lower, and the US dollar gave back some recent gains as stocks rose," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is not ⁠closed to everyone, while some vessels sailed through the ‌critical strait.

However, oil held above $100 ‌a barrel as the US-Israeli war against Iran kept the strait largely ‌shut, stranding tankers for weeks, in the biggest disruption to ‌global supplies on record. US President Donald Trump repeated his call for nations to help unblock the Strait, and complained that none were willing to offer assistance.

Higher crude prices fuel inflation by raising transport and production costs. While ‌gold is seen as an inflation hedge, higher interest rates boost yield-bearing assets, dampening demand for the ⁠metal.

"Watching news-flow ⁠from the US-Iran war and what it does to crude oil remains a key input, but the upcoming Fed meeting also has big catalyst potential. Gold may weaken if the central bank strikes a relatively hawkish tone," Spivak said.

The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady for a second straight meeting when it announces its policy statement on Wednesday.

Central banks in Britain, the euro zone, Japan, Australia, Canada, Switzerland, and Sweden also meet this week for the first time since the Iran war began.

Spot silver rose 0.3% to $80.97 per ounce. Spot platinum gained 0.9% to $2,133.93, while palladium fell 0.2% to $1,595.75.


Saudi Arabia Reinforces Global Mining Leadership at PDAC 2026 in Canada

Al-Belushi noted that the Kingdom has offered over 46,000 km² for exploration - SPA
Al-Belushi noted that the Kingdom has offered over 46,000 km² for exploration - SPA
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Saudi Arabia Reinforces Global Mining Leadership at PDAC 2026 in Canada

Al-Belushi noted that the Kingdom has offered over 46,000 km² for exploration - SPA
Al-Belushi noted that the Kingdom has offered over 46,000 km² for exploration - SPA

Saudi Arabia participated in the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention, held March 1–4, 2026, highlighting exploration and mining opportunities in the Kingdom built on vast geological data and supported by a reformed regulatory framework.

On the sidelines of the conference, Deputy Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources for Mineral Resources Management Abdulrahman Al-Belushi, delivered keynote remarks at the Saudi Showcase titled “KSA: The Future Hub for Global Mineral Processing,” highlighting the Kingdom’s transformation from an emerging jurisdiction to a top global mining destination.

Al-Belushi emphasized that Saudi Arabia’s $2.5 trillion mineral wealth, modern regulatory framework, transparent licensing rounds, large-scale geological mapping program covering 700,000 km² of the Arabian Shield, and its world-class mine-to-market facilities provide a strong foundation for global investors seeking long-term opportunities across the mining sector, SPA reported.

During his participation at the International Mines Ministers Summit (IMMS), Al-Belushi highlighted the importance of global partnerships to meet rising mineral demand and shared details of the Future Minerals Forum’s Ministerial Roundtable Initiative, which promotes economic development, responsible supply, and capacity building across the mining sector.

Al-Belushi noted that the Kingdom has offered over 46,000 km² for exploration and is actively addressing financing gaps through a suite of competitive incentives, including the Exploration Enablement Program to support early-stage investment.

He also highlighted ongoing talent development initiatives, such as the recently launched Saudi School of Mines at the fifth Future Minerals Forum in January, alongside more than 80 years of geological data made digitally accessible to investors through the National Geological Database (NGD).

Throughout PDAC 2026, the Saudi delegation engaged in a series of bilateral meetings with global mining executives, investors, and institutional partners to accelerate collaboration across exploration, mining services, processing, and downstream integration.

By combining governance reform, large-scale geological data, financial risk-sharing mechanisms, and integrated mine-to-market infrastructure, Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as a strategic partner in strengthening global mineral supply chains.

Saudi Arabia’s participation at PDAC affirms that the Kingdom’s mining sector has moved from an emerging market to a competitive global destination. Through a modernized regulatory framework, extensive geological data, and competitive incentives, the Kingdom continues to strengthen its position as a trusted and preferred destination for mining investment—a reliable partner in building resilient and sustainable mineral supply chains.