Saudi Budget Forum Reveals Govt. Spending Now Independent of ‘Oil Cycle’

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan and Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim attend the Saudi Budget Forum (Saudi 2026 Budget Forum)
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan and Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim attend the Saudi Budget Forum (Saudi 2026 Budget Forum)
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Saudi Budget Forum Reveals Govt. Spending Now Independent of ‘Oil Cycle’

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan and Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim attend the Saudi Budget Forum (Saudi 2026 Budget Forum)
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan and Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim attend the Saudi Budget Forum (Saudi 2026 Budget Forum)

Saudi Arabia’s 2026 budget forum, held a day after the Cabinet approved the new fiscal plan under the chairmanship of Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman, served as a high-level platform to explain the budget’s objectives and strategic direction.

Officials said the budget aims to balance fiscal prudence with the acceleration of Vision 2030’s third phase, intensifying efforts to implement its programs and projects to deliver sustainable economic and social impact.

The Crown Prince has repeatedly stressed that citizens’ welfare remains the government’s top priority.

The Cabinet approved the 2026 budget on Tuesday with total spending of 1.31 trillion riyals ($349.3 billion) and projected revenues of 1.15 trillion riyals ($306 billion), implying a deficit of 165 billion riyals ($43.9 billion).

Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said the government had overcome a key structural challenge by ending the link between public spending and oil price cycles. “Expenditure is now increasing in a studied, deliberate manner, away from the volatility of the oil sector,” he said.

Economy and Planning Minister Faisal Alibrahim said the kingdom is entering a new phase in which artificial intelligence will become the main driver of non-oil growth, reshaping the economy.

Technology, he said, will amplify economic returns and allow Saudi companies such as HUMAIN to play a leading role in the future economy, similar to the role Aramco played in the energy sector.

Officials said this approach is part of a broader strategy to strengthen institutional capacity and expand private-sector partnerships to sustain the momentum of non-oil growth, projected to remain between 4.5 and 6 % in coming years.

Fiscal Policy Shift: Spending Decoupled from Oil

At the forum’s opening session, al-Jadaan outlined a new fiscal policy designed to delink spending from oil-revenue fluctuations — a structural reform marking a turning point in Saudi financial management.

“The biggest challenge in previous years was that spending moved in line with the economic cycle,” he said. “Under the current policy, spending now grows in a disciplined and planned way.”

He said the shift ensures steady non-oil growth regardless of oil-market swings. The minister noted that the oil sector had recorded “negative growth for eight years,” underscoring the need for this policy change.

Al-Jadaan added that the government has capped public debt at 40 % of GDP and expects non-oil revenues this year to reach 501 billion riyals ($133.4 billion), accounting for almost 46 % of total revenues — the highest share in five years.

He said debt levels were not a concern “as long as returns exceed costs,” adding: “Debt in itself is not good on a personal level, and the same applies to the state — but there are exceptions.”

He stressed that “the government’s goal is not to raise taxes but to expand the size of the economy.”

Economic Transformation Delivering ‘Large Real Returns’

Alibrahim said Vision 2030’s transformation drive is producing “very large real returns,” reflected in strong growth across sectors. He emphasized that quality growth, not just quantity, will define the next stage.

He said 74 economic activities have grown by more than 5 % annually over the past five years, while 37 have expanded by over 10%. “The non-oil economy is now the foundation of sustainable growth,” he said, noting that cumulative growth since 2015 has exceeded 30% and reliance on oil revenues has fallen from 90 to 68%.

Non-oil growth is expected to average between 4.5 and 6% annually in the coming years.

Private-sector participation, he said, remains essential to sustaining this trajectory. Its contribution to GDP has risen from 30 to 50%, with further room for expansion “provided projects are executed at the right cost.”

Alibrahim said hundreds of international firms have entered the Saudi market, and domestic investment has surged, showing the kingdom’s progress in building a competitive business climate. “Opening long-term opportunities for the private sector is crucial to creating quality jobs and achieving sustainable growth,” he said.

He estimated that infrastructure investment needs would reach 3.5 trillion riyals over the next decade, calling infrastructure “one of the fastest-growing asset classes globally.”

The minister said artificial intelligence will power the next phase of economic diversification, boosting productivity, maximizing returns, and attracting global talent and technology firms. He cited HUMAIN, a Public Investment Fund- and Aramco-backed firm, as poised to take a pioneering role in the future economy “just as Aramco did for decades in energy.”

Foreign Property Ownership and Housing

Housing Minister Majed al-Hogail said the government will begin implementing a new law next month allowing foreigners to own property in Saudi Arabia. The legislation, he said, is intended to bring balance to the real-estate market through the white-land fee policy.

He said development housing programs for low-income families had enabled more than 50,000 households to acquire homes and protect over 16,000 families from default.

Al-Hogail said the Finance Ministry and the central bank had provided 46.6 billion riyals to inject liquidity into housing programs. More than 250,000 citizens benefited from mortgage guarantees for those with financial challenges.

He said over 20,000 rental contracts have been signed under market-balancing initiatives, with plans to add 60,000 housing units next year and 100,000 under off-plan sales. The housing program aims to grant ownership to 20,000 families by 2026.

Logistics Hub Ambitions

Transport and Logistics Minister Saleh al-Jasser said Saudi Arabia is witnessing a major transformation toward becoming a global logistics hub and a model of integrated mobility.

Private-sector investment in transport and logistics has exceeded 280 billion riyals across aviation, maritime, rail, and road services, he said.

The aviation sector, he added, is expanding rapidly with more than 500 aircraft on confirmed order for national carriers. Passenger routes have increased to 172 from 100 before the pandemic, with a target of 250 by 2030.

Projects include expanding King Abdulaziz Airport, building King Salman Airport, opening new airports in Jazan and Jouf, and launching an additional national carrier in the Eastern Province.

Air-freight volumes grew 30% last year, with a goal of surpassing 3.5 million tons by 2030. The rail network now spans 6,000 kilometers, with plans to double its length, move 30 million tons of freight and 10 million passengers, and add 10 new passenger trains.

Building a World-Class Labor Market

Human Resources and Social Development Minister Ahmed al-Rajhi said Saudi Arabia is crafting a new strategy to make its labor market among the best globally.

He said the 2020 Labor Market Strategy introduced 28 reform initiatives, 94% of which have been implemented. His ministry participates in eight of the 11 Vision 2030 programs and has completed most of its 100 related initiatives.

The number of Saudis working in the private sector rose from 1.7 million to 2.5 million in four years, he said. Engineering jobs grew from 52,000 to 218,000 Saudi nationals, and freelance work expanded to 430,000 workers nationwide.

Tourism Growth

Deputy Tourism Minister Princess Haifa Al Saud said the number of visitors to the kingdom reached 116 million, with spending totaling 275 billion riyals.

Tourists from Europe accounted for 14% of arrivals and those from East Asia and the Pacific 15%. Domestic tourism spending climbed to 105 billion riyals by the end of the third quarter of 2025, up 18% year-on-year, reflecting the sector’s growing role in diversifying revenue sources.

Defense Industries and Localization

General Authority for Military Industries Governor Ahmed al-Ohali said the sector has undergone a major transformation over the past six years, driven by regulatory reforms and investment incentives.

He said the number of licensed defense companies jumped from fewer than five in 2018 to more than 340 in 2024, while local military spending rose from 4 to 25% of total outlays and local content reached 40%.

 

 



Oil Prices Dip after Iran Says Dozens of Vessels are Crossing Hormuz

(FILES) The price per litre of unleaded petrol and diesel is pictured in front a Shell petrol station in Wrotham Heath, south east England on May 7, 2026. British energy giant Shell announced on May 7, 2026 a 19-percent increase in net profits for the first quarter as the Middle East war sent oil and gas prices soaring in volatile trading. (Photo by Ben STANSALL / AFP)
(FILES) The price per litre of unleaded petrol and diesel is pictured in front a Shell petrol station in Wrotham Heath, south east England on May 7, 2026. British energy giant Shell announced on May 7, 2026 a 19-percent increase in net profits for the first quarter as the Middle East war sent oil and gas prices soaring in volatile trading. (Photo by Ben STANSALL / AFP)
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Oil Prices Dip after Iran Says Dozens of Vessels are Crossing Hormuz

(FILES) The price per litre of unleaded petrol and diesel is pictured in front a Shell petrol station in Wrotham Heath, south east England on May 7, 2026. British energy giant Shell announced on May 7, 2026 a 19-percent increase in net profits for the first quarter as the Middle East war sent oil and gas prices soaring in volatile trading. (Photo by Ben STANSALL / AFP)
(FILES) The price per litre of unleaded petrol and diesel is pictured in front a Shell petrol station in Wrotham Heath, south east England on May 7, 2026. British energy giant Shell announced on May 7, 2026 a 19-percent increase in net profits for the first quarter as the Middle East war sent oil and gas prices soaring in volatile trading. (Photo by Ben STANSALL / AFP)

Oil prices dipped on Thursday after Iran's state media said about 30 vessels had crossed the Strait of Hormuz in recent hours while the semi-official Fars news agency cited a source saying Iran had begun allowing transit for some Chinese vessels.

Meanwhile, the White House, speaking of US President Donald Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, said both leaders agreed the Strait of Hormuz must be open for the free flow of energy. Xi said the "rejuvenation of China" and "Make America Great Again" can go hand in hand.

Easing from an earlier high of $107.13 a barrel, Brent crude oil futures were down 60 cents, or 0.6%, to $105.03 a barrel at 1422 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 52 cents, or 0.5%, to $100.50.

Both contracts fell on Wednesday as investors worried about possible US interest rate hikes as higher fuel prices spur inflationary pressures. Brent crude futures lost more than $2 a barrel, while WTI futures dropped more than $1.

Xi expressed interest in purchasing more US oil to reduce China's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, according to the White House. China, never a big buyer of US crude, has not imported any since May 2025 due to a 20% import tariff imposed during the trade war.

The Strait of Hormuz, a key energy gateway, has been largely shut since the Iran war broke out at the end of February.

Iran appears to have tightened its control over the strait, cutting deals with Iraq and Pakistan to ship oil and liquefied natural gas from the region.

Before the Fars report, a Chinese supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude sailed through the strait on Wednesday after being stranded in the Gulf for more than two months.

A Panama-flagged crude oil tanker managed by Japanese refining group Eneos has also passed through the strait, ship-tracking data from LSEG showed on Thursday, the second instance of a Japan-linked oil ship making it through.

Global oil supply will fall short of total demand this year as inventories are drained at an unprecedented pace, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.

In the United States, crude inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 million barrels for the week ended May 8 on rising exports, the EIA said, although distillates stockpiles rose, in opposition to expectations of a draw.


Türkiye Raises End-2026 Inflation Target to 24%

FILE PHOTO: A view of the city's business and financial districts, from the July 15 Martyrs' Bridge, known as the Bosphorus Bridge, which links the city's Asian and European sides, in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 2, 2025. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the city's business and financial districts, from the July 15 Martyrs' Bridge, known as the Bosphorus Bridge, which links the city's Asian and European sides, in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 2, 2025. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File Photo
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Türkiye Raises End-2026 Inflation Target to 24%

FILE PHOTO: A view of the city's business and financial districts, from the July 15 Martyrs' Bridge, known as the Bosphorus Bridge, which links the city's Asian and European sides, in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 2, 2025. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the city's business and financial districts, from the July 15 Martyrs' Bridge, known as the Bosphorus Bridge, which links the city's Asian and European sides, in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 2, 2025. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File Photo

Türkiye's central bank raised its end-2026 interim inflation target to 24% from 16% Governor Fatih Karahan said on Thursday, forecasting that the inflationary effects related to the Iran war would remain pronounced in the short term.

Presenting the central bank's quarterly inflation report in Istanbul, Karahan said the bank also lifted its end-2027 interim inflation target ⁠to 15% from ⁠9%, setting its end-2028 interim target at 9%.

"While the central question before us is how long the regional tensions and pressures on energy supply will persist, we assess that the related inflationary effects ⁠will remain pronounced in the short term," Reuters quoted Karahan as saying.

He said that how long the tension lasts is a critical risk factor in terms of the inflation outlook, adding that there would be no compromise on the bank's determination to bring down inflation and it will continue to use all available tools for disinflation.

In the previous quarterly inflation report ⁠in ⁠February, the bank raised its year-end inflation forecast range by two percentage points to 15-21% and maintained its interim 16% target, despite market doubts about whether the downward trend seen throughout 2025 is on track.

The war-related surge in energy prices has rattled import-heavy economies like Türkiye. Monthly inflation surged to 4.18% in April and 32.37% on the year.


UK Economy Shows Unexpected Growth of 0.3% in March

Union flags flutter in the breeze close to the Victoria Tower and Palace of Westminster, home to the two houses of Parliament, after the State Opening of Parliament in London on May 13, 2026. (Photo by Adrian DENNIS / AFP)
Union flags flutter in the breeze close to the Victoria Tower and Palace of Westminster, home to the two houses of Parliament, after the State Opening of Parliament in London on May 13, 2026. (Photo by Adrian DENNIS / AFP)
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UK Economy Shows Unexpected Growth of 0.3% in March

Union flags flutter in the breeze close to the Victoria Tower and Palace of Westminster, home to the two houses of Parliament, after the State Opening of Parliament in London on May 13, 2026. (Photo by Adrian DENNIS / AFP)
Union flags flutter in the breeze close to the Victoria Tower and Palace of Westminster, home to the two houses of Parliament, after the State Opening of Parliament in London on May 13, 2026. (Photo by Adrian DENNIS / AFP)

Britain's economy expanded unexpectedly in March to cap another strong first quarter, suggesting the economy was in slightly better shape as the Iran war escalated than many feared, official data showed on Thursday.

Gross domestic product increased by 0.3% month-on-month in March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, against expectations in a Reuters poll of economists for a 0.2% contraction.

The ⁠services sector, construction ⁠output and manufacturing all grew strongly.

"Many will be unconvinced that this momentum can be sustained throughout this year," said Scott Gardner, investment strategist at J.P. Morgan Personal Investing.

"The risk is that ⁠the energy price spike following the start of the Iran conflict will persist and lead to a rebound in inflation."

Recent business surveys point to a rapid increase in cost pressures that is likely to weigh on corporate activity.

For the first quarter as a whole, the economy expanded by 0.6% - marking the third year ⁠running ⁠of conspicuously strong growth in the first quarter.

The ONS on Thursday published a blog that acknowledged there may be post-pandemic shifts in the timing of spending in the economy, and nudged down its readings for the first quarters of 2024 and 2025.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves said the data showed she had the right economic plan.