Yemen's eastern provinces of Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra are passing through a critical phase amid the unprecedented unilateral military escalation carried out by the Southern Transitional Council (STC) that has been met with widespread regional and international condemnation.
Observers have said the STC cannot be allowed to impose a new status quo through the use of force no matter its justifications or claims.
They said the situation is not a passing development that can be ignored by the Saudi-led Arab coalition to restore legitimacy in Yemen and its supporters. Rather, this is a multifaceted political and security test where southern interests, the war against the Houthis and regional peace collide.
At the moment, the STC is opting to maneuver under pressure instead of leading the challenge head-on. In its recent statements, the council has resorted to political claims to justify its actions on the ground, speaking of "coordination" and "understanding concerns", reflecting a growing realization that its room to maneuver is shrinking and that it must take the right decision.
Saudi Arabia has made clear warnings over the situation, starting with a political warning, followed by an airstrike on Hadhramaut. The stern response means that a firm decision has been taken to prevent Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra from being dragged into an internal conflict or becoming an arena where agendas are imposed by force.
The STC is aware that ignoring the warnings puts it in a direct confrontation with a regional heavyweight - Saudi Arabia. The council does not have the political or military means to come out on top, so it has been advised to seriously deal with the warnings and avoid resorting to stalling tactics if it is considering taking the option of minimal losses to the gains it has amassed over the years.
Failing to heed the warning will mean it will have to come to heel through force, which will end in its major defeat.
The observers said the STC has landed itself in an unprecedented crisis. The council has justified its unilateral military actions as aimed at "protecting the southern cause" and that it was meeting the demands of the people. It also claimed that it sought to block Houthi smuggling routes and fight terrorist groups.
Despite everything, it is not too late for the STC to salvage the situation, as stated by Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman on Saturday. The STC can still end the crisis while taking minimal losses by immediately withdrawing its forces from Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra.
Should it stand its ground, the STC does not have the means to consolidate its presence in the two provinces, especially amid wide popular opposition, notably in Hadhramaut. Moreover, the STC lacks regional cover and international support that is a main condition for creating any security changes in critical areas.
So, it would seem that the best and easiest scenario would be for the STC to withdraw its forces, under such pretexts of "redeployment" or "security arrangements", to minimize its political losses, said the observers.
Should it ignore the warnings and choose to continue to escalate the situation, then the STC will lose its partnership with the legitimate Yemeni authorities, transforming into an obstacle in efforts to restore stability in the country. International sanctions may even be imposed on its leaders.
On the military level, the Arab coalition was clear in stating that it will not allow a new status quo to be imposed by force in eastern Yemen. Any escalation may be met with direct deterrence, meaning casualties on the ground that the STC cannot justify.
On the ground, the STC does not enjoy the support of the people in Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra and the continued escalation will deepen opposition to it in the south. The southern cause will transform from an issue that enjoys consensus to one that causes division.
