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Saudi Economy Poised for Strong Non-Oil Momentum in 2026

A general view of the Saudi capital Riyadh. (SPA)
A general view of the Saudi capital Riyadh. (SPA)
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Saudi Economy Poised for Strong Non-Oil Momentum in 2026

A general view of the Saudi capital Riyadh. (SPA)
A general view of the Saudi capital Riyadh. (SPA)

Saudi Arabia enters 2026 amid an accelerating transformation driven by Vision 2030 targets, even as global economic growth slows to about 3.1% and global inflation eases to roughly 3.7%, according to IMF estimates.

With geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies heightening global uncertainty, the Kingdom is betting on robust domestic demand and a broader non-oil base to secure more sustainable growth and reduce exposure to oil-market volatility.

Finance Ministry projections point to real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2026, led by non-oil activities as the main engine of expansion. This momentum reflects the rapid development of promising sectors, from tourism and entertainment to industry, transport and logistics, which have lifted their contribution to output. In 2024, non-oil activities reached a record SAR 2.6 trillion ($693 billion), growing 6%.

Continued growth

Alongside growth, a structural shift is evident on two fronts. First, digital transformation is accelerating: electronic payments accounted for 79% of individual transactions in 2024, e-commerce sales surged 64.3% by end-August 2025, and point-of-sale sales rose 6.1%. Second, the private sector and investment are playing a larger role. The purchasing managers’ index stood at a robust 60.2 points in October 2025, signaling stronger demand, output and hiring.

On macro stability, the 2026 budget statement forecasts inflation at 2%, supported by “flexible and balanced” fiscal policies focused on spending efficiency, service quality and the continued rollout of priority megaprojects.

Net foreign direct investment inflows reached SAR 46.5 billion ($12.4 billion) in the first half of 2025, up 29.2%, underscoring sustained confidence in the business environment.

Expansion of promising activities

Economic indicators in 2025 extended the strong results of 2024. From the start of 2025 through the third quarter, real GDP grew 4.1% year on year, driven by a 4.7% expansion in non-oil activities.

Quarterly growth in non-oil sectors reached 4.9% in Q1 and 4.6% in Q2, with wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels up 6.6%; finance, insurance and business services up 5%; and construction up 3.8%. Preliminary estimates show non-oil growth of 4.5% in Q3.

Oil activities grew 3.9% over the same period, reflecting market developments linked to a gradual phase-out of an additional voluntary cut of 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September 2025.

Government activities expanded 1.9%, supported by faster execution of projects with lasting economic impact.

On the demand side, real private final consumption rose 3.5% in the first half of 2025, buoyed by localization programs and an improving labor market. Non-government fixed capital formation increased 4.6%, driven by a 5.2% rise in non-oil investment.

Labor market, tourism and trade

Labor market indicators improved further: overall unemployment fell to 3.2% in Q2 2025, while Saudi unemployment declined to 6.8%. Female participation reached 34.5%, and the number of Saudis employed in the private sector rose by 144,100 year on year to around 2.5 million.

Tourism played a pivotal role. Saudi Arabia ranked first globally in growth of international tourism receipts in Q1 2025 versus Q1 2019, and third in international arrivals, with a 102% increase, supporting the goal of welcoming 150 million visitors annually by 2030.

Average inflation from early 2025 through October hovered near 2%, with the full-year average expected around 2.3%. The goods trade balance posted a surplus of SAR 162 billion ($43.2 billion) through Q3 2025, aided by 17.7% growth in non-oil exports.

Imports rose 10.4%, largely intermediate and capital goods. The travel account recorded a surplus of SAR 32.2 billion in the first half.

Finance, markets and fiscal policy

Banking assets exceeded SAR 4.9 trillion by September 2025, with credit above SAR 3.2 trillion. Corporate lending climbed 19%, non-performing loans fell below 1.2%, and capital adequacy exceeded 19.6%. Equity markets saw 14 listings by end-September, rising institutional participation, and increased foreign ownership.

Preliminary estimates put the 2025 budget deficit at SAR 245 billion (5.3% of GDP), reflecting a flexible fiscal stance supporting transformation. Public debt stood near SAR 1.47 trillion by Q3, with reserves maintained at about SAR 390 billion.

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Business

Egypt to Cut Red Tape for Business and List up to Four State Firms

Egypt’s Investment and Foreign Trade Minister Mohamed Farid Saleh speaks during an interview in London, Britain June 4, 2026. REUTERS/Marc Jones
Egypt’s Investment and Foreign Trade Minister Mohamed Farid Saleh speaks during an interview in London, Britain June 4, 2026. REUTERS/Marc Jones
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Egypt to Cut Red Tape for Business and List up to Four State Firms

Egypt’s Investment and Foreign Trade Minister Mohamed Farid Saleh speaks during an interview in London, Britain June 4, 2026. REUTERS/Marc Jones
Egypt’s Investment and Foreign Trade Minister Mohamed Farid Saleh speaks during an interview in London, Britain June 4, 2026. REUTERS/Marc Jones

Egypt will step up efforts to cut red tape to spur on local businesses and it expects to list as many as four state-owned firms on the stock exchange over the next 12 months, its Investment and Foreign Trade Minister Mohamed Farid Saleh told Reuters.

Planned reforms aim to streamline company formation but also ease capital raising and make M&A processes easier, especially for non-listed firms, Saleh said.

"Within the coming 12 months, the priority would be in the area of the ease of doing business for already existing companies to facilitate their life... This is quite a hefty job," Saleh told Reuters on the sidelines of a visit to London.

He also predicted more than half a dozen companies would be floated on the country's stock exchange over the next 12 months, including a number of state-run ones.

State-owned enterprises still play an outsized role across Egypt's economy, with the IMF saying progress in reducing their footprint has been slower than expected.

Saleh said the government had got the ball rolling, having announced in March plans to sell up to a 20% share of Misr Life Insurance - something it has promised to do for more than 15 years - and could raise roughly 14 billion Egyptian pounds ($270 million).

"We're expecting three to four IPOs from our side, from the government side, and around four to five from the private sector," he said. He declined to name other state-owned companies that could be sold or how much such transactions could raise.

The minister said he expected flows of foreign direct investment in the fiscal year to end-June to rise 10% to 15% from $12.2 billion in fiscal 2024/2025.

Saleh said the government would not veer from its commitment to a floating exchange rate. Egypt's pound has been one of the world's hardest-hit currencies by the Iran war, falling nearly 8% since the conflict began. That has driven up inflation and threatened to reignite worries about the overall trajectory for the pound.

"Investors can deal with volatility, they don't deal with uncertainty," he said. "We were very clear and adamant about our policy direction... We are solely targeting inflation." He also said the government would maintain fiscal discipline, regardless of the situation in the region.

Asked about the seventh review of the country's IMF program, which is expected to be finalized in the coming weeks, Saleh said the government had achieved or even surpassed targets set on metrics such as its fiscal deficit and primary surplus.

A follow-on program with the Fund once the current one expires by year-end was currently not on the cards, he said.

"When you go and enter into a program, it is because of financial needs and because of other aspects. Those things are not present as we speak."

Business

Oil Edges Lower after Oman Says Mina al Fahal Operations Proceeding Normally

Oil pumpjacks operating in a farmer’s field near Calgary, Alberta, Canada, November 26, 2025. (Reuters)
Oil pumpjacks operating in a farmer’s field near Calgary, Alberta, Canada, November 26, 2025. (Reuters)
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Oil Edges Lower after Oman Says Mina al Fahal Operations Proceeding Normally

Oil pumpjacks operating in a farmer’s field near Calgary, Alberta, Canada, November 26, 2025. (Reuters)
Oil pumpjacks operating in a farmer’s field near Calgary, Alberta, Canada, November 26, 2025. (Reuters)

Oil prices edged lower after Oman said operations at Mina al Fahal port were proceeding normally, following a Reuters report that oil loadings had been suspended after an explosion.

Brent crude futures fell by 50 cents, or 0.53%, to $94.53 a barrel by 0915 GMT after settling down 2.84% in the previous session.

US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $92.61 a barrel, down 43 cents, or 0.46%, following a 3.1% loss on Thursday.

Both contracts still looked set to post their first weekly gains in three weeks, with Brent up 2.7% and WTI around 6%.

The contracts rose after fighting flared in the Middle East as US-Iran war peace talks dragged on while traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world's oil passes, remained limited, Reuters reported.

Petroleum Development Oman said on Friday that operations at Mina Al Fahal port were proceeding normally, after three sources told Reuters earlier that oil loading had been suspended following an explosion near its mooring berths.

Oman exports 800,000 to 900,000 barrels per day of crude from the terminal.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected on Thursday a US-brokered agreement between Israel and the Lebanese government to halt the fighting. Iran has made a ceasefire in Lebanon a condition for any peace deal with Washington.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he believed progress was being made between Israel and Lebanon and that Lebanon deserved to have peace.

"Any optimism remains heavily clouded by a tangled web of headlines and counter-headlines," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note. OPEC is sticking to its oil demand growth forecast of 1.2 million barrels per day for this year, Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Thursday, despite the Middle East conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian oil exports have fallen to their lowest level in six years mainly due to the US naval blockade, according to shipping data, although weak demand in China has depressed prices for the oil.

Business

FAO: World Food Prices Slip in May, Still Near Three-year High

A shopper buys vegetables with her son at a street market in Urcos, Peru, Tuesday, June 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd)
A shopper buys vegetables with her son at a street market in Urcos, Peru, Tuesday, June 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd)
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FAO: World Food Prices Slip in May, Still Near Three-year High

A shopper buys vegetables with her son at a street market in Urcos, Peru, Tuesday, June 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd)
A shopper buys vegetables with her son at a street market in Urcos, Peru, Tuesday, June 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd)

World food prices slipped in May from a revised April level, with vegetable oil prices falling for the first time this year while cereals and sugar jumped, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which measures changes in a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 130.8 points in May, ⁠0.2% down from ⁠its revised April level of 131.0, but up 2.9% from a year earlier, Reuters reported.

Despite the small downward correction for the April data, the index remained near its highest level since January 2023 and 18.4% below its March 2022 peak. Cereal prices rose more than 2.6% on the month, with wheat up for a fourth straight month on smaller export harvest prospects, including in ⁠the United States, and higher fuel and fertilizer costs linked to the Iran conflict.

Maize prices were also supported by stronger import demand and tighter supplies in Brazil and the US, the agency said.

By contrast, vegetable oil prices fell 4.6% from last month, their first monthly decline this year, as lower palm and soy oil prices outweighed gains in rapeseed and sunflower oil. After rising for five consecutive months, international palm oil prices declined, reflecting expectations of weaker global import demand and uncertainty in crude oil markets.

Vegetable oil prices on average were still more than 20% above last year, as ⁠elevated energy costs ⁠following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz raised demand for biofuels made using organic materials, such as oil-rich plants.

Sugar prices jumped 7.5% from last month to 95.1 points, but remained 13.1% below their level a year ago. The increase was mainly driven by concerns over an anticipated tightening of global sugar supplies in the coming months.

In a separate cereal supply report, the FAO said it expected world cereal production - including rice in milled equivalent - to shrink 2% in 2026/27 to 2.98 billion tons.

Production of all major cereals is anticipated to decline, albeit for many from record levels reached in 2025, with the largest year-on-year decrease in percentage terms forecast for wheat and the smallest for maize and barley.