Oil Prices Rise 1% as Supply Risks Remain in Focus

The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian
The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian
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Oil Prices Rise 1% as Supply Risks Remain in Focus

The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian
The Nave Photon, carrying crude oil from Venezuela, is docked at Port Freeport in Freeport, Texas, US, January 15, 2026. REUTERS/Antranik Tavitian

Oil prices rose over 1% on Friday as supply risks remained in focus despite the receding likelihood of a US military strike against Iran.

Brent crude was up 84 cents, or 1.3%, to $64.60 a barrel at 1413 GMT, on course for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. US West Texas Intermediate was up 80 cents, or 1.4%, to $59.99.

At those levels, Brent was on course for a 2% weekly gain and WTI for a 1.4% gain. Brent ⁠was up a little more than $1 at its intraday peak as investors continue to weigh the potential for supply outages should tensions in the Middle East escalate, Reuters reported.

"While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, they have not disappeared, and market participants remain concerned about potential supply disruptions," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Both benchmarks hit multi-month highs this week ⁠after protests flared up in Iran and US President Donald Trump signaled the potential for military strikes, but lost over 4% on Thursday as Trump said that Tehran's crackdown on the protesters was easing, allaying concerns of possible military action that could disrupt oil supplies.

"Above all, there are worries about a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in the event of an escalation, through which around a quarter of seaborne oil supplies flow," Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

"Should there be signs of a sustained easing on ⁠this front, developments in Venezuela are likely to return to the spotlight, with oil that was recently sanctioned or blocked gradually flowing onto the world market."

Meanwhile, analysts expect higher supply this year, potentially creating a ceiling for the geopolitical risk premium on prices.

"Despite the steady drumbeat of geopolitical risks and macro speculation, the underlying balance still points to ample supply," said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.

"Unless we see a genuine revival in Chinese demand or a meaningful bottleneck in physical barrel flows, oil looks range-bound, with Brent broadly hovering between $57 and $67."



India’s Modi Lauds Interim Trade Pact After US Tariff Rollback

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)
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India’s Modi Lauds Interim Trade Pact After US Tariff Rollback

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday hailed an interim trade agreement with the United States, saying it would bolster global growth and deepen economic ties between the two countries.

The pact cuts US "reciprocal" duties on Indian products to 18 percent from 25 percent, and commits India to large purchases of US energy and industrial goods.

US President Donald Trump, while announcing the deal Tuesday, had said Modi promised to stop buying Russian oil over the war in Ukraine.

The deal eases months of tensions over India's oil purchases -- which Washington says fund a conflict it is trying to end -- and restores the close ties between Trump and the man he describes as "one of my greatest friends."

"Great news for India and USA!" Modi said on X on Saturday, praising US President Donald Trump's "personal commitment" to strengthening bilateral ties.

The agreement, he said, reflected "the growing depth, trust and dynamism" of their partnership.

Modi's remarks came hours after Trump issued an executive order scrapping an additional 25 percent levy imposed over New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil, in a step to implement the trade deal announced this week.

Modi, who has faced criticism at home about opening access of Indian agricultural markets to the United States and terms on oil imports, did not mention Russian oil in his statement.

"This framework will also strengthen resilient and trusted supply chains and contribute to global growth," he said.

It would also create fresh opportunities for Indian farmers, entrepreneurs and fishermen under the "Make in India" initiative.

In a separate statement, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said the pact would "open a $30 trillion market for Indian exporters".

Goyal also said the deal protects India's sensitive agricultural and dairy products, including maize, wheat, rice, soya, poultry and milk.

Other terms of the agreement include the removal of tariffs on certain aircraft and parts, according to a separate joint statement released Friday by the White House.

The statement added that India intends to purchase $500 billion of US energy products, aircraft and parts, precious metals, tech products and coking coal over the next five years.

The shift marks a significant reduction in US tariffs on Indian products, down from a rate of 50 percent late last year.

Washington and New Delhi are expected to sign a formal trade deal in March.


Gold Bounces Back on Softer Dollar, US-Iran Concerns; Silver Rebounds

Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth
Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth
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Gold Bounces Back on Softer Dollar, US-Iran Concerns; Silver Rebounds

Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth
Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth

Gold rebounded on Friday and was set for a weekly gain, helped by bargain hunting, a slightly weaker dollar and lingering concerns over US-Iran talks in Oman, while silver recovered from a 1-1/2-month low.

Spot gold rose 3.1% to $4,916.98 per ounce by 09:31 a.m. ET (1431 GMT), recouping losses posted during a volatile Asia session that followed a fall of 3.9% on Thursday. Bullion was headed for a weekly gain of about 1.3%.

US gold futures for April delivery gained 1% to $4,939.70 per ounce.

The US dollar index fell 0.3%, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for the overseas buyers.

"The gold market is seeing perceived bargain hunting from bullish traders," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.

Iran and the US started high-stakes negotiations via Omani mediation on Friday to try to overcome sharp differences over Tehran's nuclear program.

Wyckoff said gold's rebound lacks momentum and the metal is unlikely to break records without a major geopolitical trigger.

Gold, a traditional safe haven, does well in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Spot silver rose 5.3% to $74.98 an ounce after dipping below $65 earlier, but was still headed for its biggest weekly drop since 2011, down over 10.6%, following steep losses last week as well.

"What we're seeing in silver is huge speculation on the long side," said Wyckoff, adding that after years in a boom cycle, gold and silver now appear to be entering a typical commodity bust phase.

CME Group raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures for a third time in two weeks on Thursday to curb risks from heightened market volatility.

Spot platinum added 3.2% to $2,052 per ounce, while palladium gained 4.9% to $1,695.18. Both were down for the week.


Europe, Türkiye Agree to Work Toward Updating Customs Union

European Union (R) and Turkish flags fly at the business and financial district of Levent in Istanbul, Türkiye September 4, 2017. REUTERS/Osman Orsal
European Union (R) and Turkish flags fly at the business and financial district of Levent in Istanbul, Türkiye September 4, 2017. REUTERS/Osman Orsal
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Europe, Türkiye Agree to Work Toward Updating Customs Union

European Union (R) and Turkish flags fly at the business and financial district of Levent in Istanbul, Türkiye September 4, 2017. REUTERS/Osman Orsal
European Union (R) and Turkish flags fly at the business and financial district of Levent in Istanbul, Türkiye September 4, 2017. REUTERS/Osman Orsal

The European enlargement chief and the Turkish foreign minister said on Friday they had agreed to continue work toward modernizing the EU-Türkiye customs union and to improve its implementation, Reuters reported.

European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos met Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in the capital Ankara on Friday.

"They shared a willingness to work for paving the way for the modernization of the Customs Union and to achieve its full potential in order to support competitiveness, and economic security and resilience for both sides," they said in a joint statement afterward.

The sides also welcomed the gradual resumption of European Investment Bank (EIB) operations in Türkiye and said they intended to support projects across the country and neighbouring regions in cooperation with the bank.