Cautious Calm in Iran Amid Heightened Security Measures

Iranians walk past a sign reading in Persian “This is not a protest” on a street in Tehran (EPA) 
Iranians walk past a sign reading in Persian “This is not a protest” on a street in Tehran (EPA) 
TT

Cautious Calm in Iran Amid Heightened Security Measures

Iranians walk past a sign reading in Persian “This is not a protest” on a street in Tehran (EPA) 
Iranians walk past a sign reading in Persian “This is not a protest” on a street in Tehran (EPA) 

Iran is facing a sweeping security crackdown after a wave of arrests and the heavy deployment of forces in Tehran and other cities, as residents and a rights group said protests have largely abated under the weight of the clampdown.

Accounts from residents in the capital described a cautious calm since Sunday, with drones circling overhead and patrols stationed at major intersections and squares, amid a sharp curtailment of information flows because of internet outages and restricted communications.

Videos circulating online pointed to what were described as “maximum security” conditions in cities, including Mashhad, where security personnel in dark uniforms and special vehicles were seen on the streets, alongside a complete internet blackout that has lasted for eight days.

Despite the broader lull, videos showed a group of residents in Zahedan marching through the city’s streets on Friday after weekly prayers, even as reports spoke of tight security and extensive measures around the prayers. Independent rights sources, including the Baloch Activists Campaign, said Zahedan had seen a heavy security presence.

Protests erupted on Dec. 28 after a surge in inflation and worsening economic conditions in Iran, whose economy is weighed down by sanctions, before escalating into one of the biggest challenges to the ruling establishment since 1979.

While residents said streets appeared calm, many asked not to be named for safety reasons. A resident in a northern city on the Caspian Sea said conditions there were also quiet, with security overshadowing daily life. An elderly woman in a northwestern town that was an early flashpoint said sporadic protests were still occurring but with less intensity, adding she had never seen scenes like those that accompanied the earlier escalation in violence.

Iran’s education ministry said it would decide on Saturday whether Tehran’s schools would return to in-person classes or continue remote learning, as they did last week, a sign of broader disruption to public life.

On the ground, a woman in Tehran told Reuters by phone that her daughter was killed on Friday after taking part in a protest near their home. She said the girl was 15 and rejected descriptions of her as a “terrorist” or “rioter,” adding that her daughter was chased by Basij forces as she tried to return home.

The Iranian Kurdish rights group Hengaw, based in Norway, said no protest gatherings had been recorded since Sunday, adding that “security conditions remain extremely tight” with a dense military and security presence in several areas.

Hengaw said its independent sources confirmed a significant security and military deployment in cities and towns that had seen earlier protests, as well as in places that had not witnessed large demonstrations, reflecting the breadth of precautionary measures.

In Isfahan, Tasnim, which is affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, said “rioters” had set fire to a local education office in the Falavarjan district.

New videos from last week showed protests in the Piroozi area in eastern Tehran, with sustained gunfire audible. A voice in one video is heard telling people, “They are shooting at us. One of us has been killed.”

Official narrative

In an effort to reinforce the security agencies’ account, state-owned Press TV quoted Iran’s police chief as saying calm had returned nationwide, while state television aired footage of traffic flowing through major Tehran intersections.

Alongside that narrative, state television aired a report on disturbing images from a forensic medicine center in southern Tehran, presenting them as evidence of what authorities described as the “organized and violent nature” of the unrest, insisting armed elements and “terrorist attacks” were involved.

Videos circulating in recent days showed scenes of panic inside the center, with dozens of bodies lying on floors and stretchers, most in body bags and some uncovered.

A security expert interviewed on state television said forensic facilities had been overwhelmed by the number of bodies, leading to overcrowding in halls, which the report framed as a sign of a “non-spontaneous killing wave.”

The expert said forensic examinations showed the use of weapons and ammunition “not in circulation in Iran,” alongside hunting rifles and bladed weapons. He pointed to knives, sharp tools, and injuries he said were caused by “prepared” gunfire.

He described repeated strikes carried out by more than one attacker and killings he called “brutal,” including broken necks, arguing that the nature of the injuries pointed to “organized terrorist attacks” rather than spontaneous clashes, according to Tasnim.

State television also aired footage it said showed the arrest of armed suspects in security operations linked to the unrest, while official media broadcast videos of pursuits and weapons seizures.

Tasnim published clips it said showed confrontations between security forces and “rioters,” including what it described as a surprise arrest of armed men by police.

Tasnim said “rioters” broke into a public parking garage and destroyed all vehicles inside, part of an official narrative that blames opponents of the state for organized sabotage.

Arrests and casualties

Casualty figures reported by the rights agency HRANA showed little change since Wednesday, standing at 2,677 dead, including 2,478 protesters and 163 people identified as government-affiliated, according to the group.

An Iranian official told Reuters this week that about 2,000 people had been killed in the unrest, a lower figure than HRANA’s tally, which is based on a network of sources inside the country.

The differing numbers come amid the absence of comprehensive official data.

HRANA said more than 19,000 people had been arrested, while Tasnim put the number at 3,000.

Tasnim said many leaders of what it called “riots” had been detained in Kermanshah in western Iran, adding that five suspects were arrested over the vandalism of a fuel station and a Basij base in the southeastern city of Kerman.

In a parallel display of deterrence, state television broadcast funerals for security personnel in Semnan in northern Iran and Semirom in central Iran, highlighting state losses and framing them within a narrative of “defending security.”

“Await severe retaliation”

Abdolrahim Mousavi, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, said, “If our young men wanted to confront the instigators with weapons, they would have resolved the matter and rounded them all up within two hours,” in a direct threat.

He said protesters had used “human shields,” while “our young men defended this country and its people with their lives alone,” remarks that sought to justify the use of force and underscore readiness to escalate.

For his part, Ahmad Khatami, Tehran’s Friday prayer imam, called for the execution of detained protesters and for the arrest of anyone who supported the protests “in any form.”

He described protesters as “servants of Netanyahu” and “soldiers of Trump.”

Khatami said in his sermon that Netanyahu and Trump should “await severe retaliation,” and that Americans and “Zionists” should not expect peace.

He cited figures he said showed damage to 350 mosques, 126 prayer halls, and 20 religious sites, as well as 80 homes of Friday prayer leaders.

International dimension

The internal developments came as fears of a US attack eased from Wednesday, when President Donald Trump said he had received information indicating that killings had declined.

The White House said warnings of “severe consequences” remained in place.

White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said Trump and his team had warned Tehran of consequences if killings continued, adding that Trump was aware of a halt to 800 executions while keeping “all options” on the table.

A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the US military was expected to send additional defensive and offensive capabilities to the region, without detailing their nature or timing. US Central Command declined to comment.

A source familiar with the matter said David Barnea, head of Israel’s Mossad, was visiting the United States for talks on Iran and was expected to meet US envoy Steve Witkoff, with no immediate comment from the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In contrast, the Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin discussed the situation in Iran in separate calls with Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, expressing Moscow’s readiness to mediate and ease tensions.

Iranian state media said Pezeshkian told Putin that the United States and Israel had played a direct role in the unrest.

“Key figures of the system”

At home, the office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged what it called the system’s “key figures” to act publicly and break their silence, addressing prominent political figures across factions, including former reformist president Mohammad Khatami, his ally Hassan Rouhani, hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and former parliament speaker Ali Akbar Nategh-Nuri.

The weekly magazine “Voice of Iran,” affiliated with the leader’s office, said responsibility lay with elites to counter what it called “the enemies’ nonsense” and stand with “the facts,” adding there was “no longer room for doubt or silence” because the issue “concerns Iran itself.”

In a swift response, Mohammad Khatami described the protests as a “major, premeditated conspiracy,” saying he did not doubt the role of Israel and the United States.

He said the entry of “naked violence” had quickly altered acceptance of the right to protest.

Khatami added that Israeli officials’ statements and US support left no doubt about the “formation of a major conspiracy,” while also saying the protests stemmed from “existing policies and structural imbalances,” as well as sanctions and external pressure.

He called the failure to draw lessons from past events regrettable, but said the conduct of Pezeshkian’s government in the early days of the protests had been “civil.”

Pahlavi calls for international help

In Washington, Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s last shah, urged the international community to intensify political, economic, and military pressure to help protesters overthrow the ruling system.

Speaking at a news conference, Pahlavi said “large segments” of the army and security forces had pledged loyalty to him “in secret,” and that the time had come for the international community to join fully. Pahlavi has lived outside Iran since before 1979.

“The Iranian people are taking decisive action on the ground. Now is the time for the international community to join them fully,” he said, according to Reuters.

He said he was uniquely positioned to ensure a stable transition, although the US president expressed skepticism this week about Pahlavi’s ability to mobilize support inside Iran.

The opposition remains fragmented among competing groups and rival ideological factions.



Stalled US-Iran Mediation Puts Bombing Threats Back in Focus

The US aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush sails in the Arabian Sea (CENTCOM)
The US aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush sails in the Arabian Sea (CENTCOM)
TT

Stalled US-Iran Mediation Puts Bombing Threats Back in Focus

The US aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush sails in the Arabian Sea (CENTCOM)
The US aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush sails in the Arabian Sea (CENTCOM)

Efforts to end the US-Iran war are seesawing between hopes of a breakthrough and threats of renewed bombing. The stalled mediation reveals a dispute not just over what each side must concede, but over who moves first and what guarantees follow.

As the war enters its eighth month and the US midterm elections approach, both sides are guarding their leverage. Mediators have yet to turn their declared willingness to negotiate into a settlement.

An Axios report that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio asked the Iranian delegation to leave New York, and Iran’s denial that it was expelled, has added a diplomatic clash to an impasse over the nuclear program, maritime security and sanctions.

One departure, competing accounts

Axios, citing a US official and a source familiar with the matter, reported that Rubio asked the Iranian delegation attending UN General Assembly meetings to leave on Monday evening, after White House hopes of progress in the talks faded.

The request included Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who left with the delegation early Tuesday. The US official said the meetings were over and the Iranians had stayed beyond the period during which they were welcome.

Iran’s mission disputed that account, saying the delegation’s departure did not follow a US order and that its itinerary had been submitted to the State Department on Sept. 17. Axios itself cited a source saying Araghchi had already been due to return to Tehran on Monday evening.

Whether Washington issued the request is therefore separate from whether it changed the departure time. Describing the delegation as expelled would treat a disputed account as an established fact.

US accounts attribute Rubio’s move to frustration with the lack of progress through Qatari mediation. It could be read as a political signal of a harder line as optimism faded. But the published information does not establish that Washington had decided to end negotiations.

Mediation channels remained open, suggesting increased pressure within the diplomatic process rather than its end.

Who moves first?

Iran’s proposal has not been officially published. According to leaked details reported by media outlets, it calls for reopening the Strait of Hormuz within a week and resuming nuclear talks in exchange for lifting the naval blockade of Iranian ports, exempting oil sales from sanctions and releasing frozen assets. It also calls for a ceasefire on all fronts.

Trump rejected the proposal, underscoring the unresolved question of what Washington should gain from easing pressure.

Patrick Clawson, director of the Viterbi Program on Iran and US Policy at the Washington Institute, told Asharq Al-Awsat that Trump wanted both the reopening of the strait and nuclear concessions. Either would be difficult to secure; obtaining both would be harder still.

Mutual distrust also complicates implementation, Clawson said. Each side wants proof that the other will honor its commitments before making concessions of its own, making a phased process difficult to arrange.

The dispute thus runs along two tracks: the terms of a deal and how to carry them out. Returning to nuclear talks does not amount to making specific nuclear concessions. Nor does promised sanctions relief guarantee that Iran will reap its benefits.

Reuters quoted an official familiar with the matter as saying the two sides largely agreed on the steps but differed over their order.

That leaves room for negotiation. It does not mean a finished agreement is awaiting signature. Sequencing determines who gives up leverage first, and what guarantees they receive in return.

The cost of waiting

Monday’s signs of optimism gave way on Wednesday evening to renewed threats from Trump of bombing unless a deal was reached.

In an interview published by Time magazine on Thursday, he said intensifying strikes after the midterm elections remained a possibility.

That keeps the military option open. It does not establish that Trump has decided to resume strikes or set a date.


France Faces a Difficult Triple Challenge: Stagnant Economy, Debt and Angry Streets

Firefighters wave flares and French trade union General Confederation of Labour (CGT) flags as they climb on the statue 'The Triumph of the Republic' at Place de la Nation during a rally  (Photo by Thomas SAMSON / AFP)
Firefighters wave flares and French trade union General Confederation of Labour (CGT) flags as they climb on the statue 'The Triumph of the Republic' at Place de la Nation during a rally (Photo by Thomas SAMSON / AFP)
TT

France Faces a Difficult Triple Challenge: Stagnant Economy, Debt and Angry Streets

Firefighters wave flares and French trade union General Confederation of Labour (CGT) flags as they climb on the statue 'The Triumph of the Republic' at Place de la Nation during a rally  (Photo by Thomas SAMSON / AFP)
Firefighters wave flares and French trade union General Confederation of Labour (CGT) flags as they climb on the statue 'The Triumph of the Republic' at Place de la Nation during a rally (Photo by Thomas SAMSON / AFP)

With an economy barely growing, public finances drained by debt, and the streets returning to protest, France faces a highly complex equation. The government is under pressure to address demands over wages, purchasing power, and public services, while preparing an austerity budget expected to cut spending by billions of euros. At the same time, the country is approaching a presidential election, making any economic decision more politically sensitive.

It is difficult to find positive indicators when reviewing the performance of the French economy this year, as official figures reflect the scale of the pressures facing the country. On the ground, a new wave of demonstrations and strikes began on September 29, with marches and gatherings by firefighters who played a key role in fighting last summer's wildfires. Public-sector workers then joined in response to union calls, followed by public secondary school students demanding improved study conditions. The list of demands does not appear likely to stop there.

Unions are planning to escalate their action on October 17, with protests over the rising cost of living and declining purchasing power, alongside demands for a general wage increase, higher budgets for schools and hospitals, more hiring, and improved working conditions. At the same time, activists from the Yellow Vest movement are preparing to return to the streets and traffic roundabouts, protesting rising energy prices and demanding that they be frozen and that higher taxes be imposed on companies operating in the sector.

The movement recalls the wave of protests France witnessed in 2018 and 2019 under the banner of the Yellow Vests, which at various stages turned into clashes, violence, fires, property damage, and confrontations with security forces. Those scenes remain present in the French public memory, adding sensitivity to the return of protests, particularly amid the economic and financial pressures facing the country.

A Government With Little Room to Maneuver

As social demands expand, the government of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu finds itself with little room to respond, while fearing that the wave of protests could coincide with the political mobilization ahead of the presidential election scheduled for spring 2027.

This comes as inflation regains momentum. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) said France's inflation rate rose from 2.6 percent in August to 3.4 percent in September. Rising prices are increasing pressure on households, particularly lower-income groups, as their purchasing power erodes.

In response to rising fuel prices, the government has provided financial assistance to those affected by increases in gasoline and diesel prices, while pressure from gas and electricity prices has continued.

At the same time, the government is preparing to present its 2027 budget bill on Thursday, as it moves toward austerity and spending cuts. This makes it difficult for the new fiscal measures to meet most of the demands raised by protesters.

The government aims to achieve savings of €54 billion by cutting spending and targeting items it considers unnecessary. Its proposed measures also include pensions.

Financing needs reveal the scale of the pressure on France's public finances. Paris is preparing to borrow around €340 billion in 2027, while its debt is approaching €3.6 trillion, according to government sources, an increase of around €60 billion from its level at the end of March.

This leaves the government facing a difficult equation: containing social pressures at a time when the state of public finances requires spending cuts, while the approaching election increases the sensitivity of decisions involving wages, services, and social spending.

The Cost of Debt Tightens the Squeeze

Weak growth and deteriorating public finances are also increasing the cost of France's borrowing in financial markets, with some bond yields reaching around 4.8 percent. This comes as French economic growth is expected to reach only around 0.05 percent in 2026, one of the weakest growth rates in the European Union.

At the same time, debt has reached around 119 percent of GDP, far exceeding the 60 percent ceiling set by European Union rules. The cost of servicing the debt is also rising, with interest payments expected to reach around €79 billion by the end of this year.

The scale of the shift becomes clear when compared with the situation in French debt markets between 2019 and 2021, when yields on some government bonds fell into negative territory. That environment allowed Paris to borrow at extremely low cost, while investors in some cases accepted a negative return for holding French bonds.

Today, however, France's borrowing costs have risen to levels exceeding those recorded by several European economies that have traditionally faced greater pressure in debt markets, including Greece, Spain, and Italy. The gap between French and German bond yields has also widened to more than 1.2 percentage points, indicating a higher risk premium demanded by investors to finance France.

As debt continues to rise and growth remains weak, France's public finances are becoming increasingly sensitive to interest rates. The higher the cost of borrowing, the larger the share of the budget allocated to debt servicing, leaving less room for spending on public services, social policies, and investment.

Challenges in Passing the 2027 Budget

The pressures facing the French budget cannot be separated from the energy crisis, which increased its cost by around €9 billion in 2026, with no signs that these pressures will ease in the near term.

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is likely to face a difficult task in securing parliamentary approval for the 2027 budget bill, particularly in the National Assembly, as the presidential election approaches and political calculations intensify.

As the election approaches, political blocs may face increasing pressure to consider the impact of any austerity budget on their electoral bases, opening the door to difficult negotiations and conflicting parliamentary demands.

This is particularly significant in light of last year's experience, when two governments fell after failing to secure the majority needed to pass the 2026 budget. Lecornu was then forced to make concessions to Socialist Party lawmakers in an effort to secure the support needed for its passage.

A Major Economy and Political Weight

Despite the financial pressures, the French economy retains significant weight at both the European and global levels.

According to 2025 World Bank data, France ranks second among European Union economies by GDP, after Germany, with output of around $3.366 trillion, compared with $5.051 trillion for Germany. Across Europe more broadly, France ranks third after Germany and Britain, whose GDP stood at around $4.003 trillion.

Globally, France ranks seventh by GDP, according to the same data, behind the United States, China, Germany, Japan, India, and Britain.

Its economic weight, along with its permanent seat on the UN Security Council and nuclear capabilities, gives France political influence that extends beyond the weight reflected by the size of its economy alone.

However, the current financial and economic pressures could make it more difficult to maintain this weight within the European Union, where France and Germany have for decades formed a central axis in advancing European integration.

As President Emmanuel Macron's second term approaches its end in spring 2027, the next presidential election is becoming increasingly important for French economic and fiscal policies. At the same time, the rise of the nationalist right, led by the National Rally, raises the possibility of changes in several areas, including fiscal and economic policy.


UN Rights Chief Urges Tennessee Not to Repeat Christa Pike Execution Attempt

A picture taken on December 4, 2007 shows death row inmate Christa Pike entering a Knox County Criminal Court in Knoxville, Tennessee, US., obtained by Reuters on September 30, 2026.
A picture taken on December 4, 2007 shows death row inmate Christa Pike entering a Knox County Criminal Court in Knoxville, Tennessee, US., obtained by Reuters on September 30, 2026.
TT

UN Rights Chief Urges Tennessee Not to Repeat Christa Pike Execution Attempt

A picture taken on December 4, 2007 shows death row inmate Christa Pike entering a Knox County Criminal Court in Knoxville, Tennessee, US., obtained by Reuters on September 30, 2026.
A picture taken on December 4, 2007 shows death row inmate Christa Pike entering a Knox County Criminal Court in Knoxville, Tennessee, US., obtained by Reuters on September 30, 2026.

UN rights chief Volker Turk on Thursday urged the US state of Tennessee not to make a new attempt to execute Christa Pike after she survived two lethal injection doses.

Convicted murder Pike, 50, was being treated in hospital, her lawyers said, following Tennessee's second failed execution in months.

"The case of Christa Pike lays bare multiple reasons why the death penalty should be abolished," the UN rights office said on X.

"The prolonged suffering -- physical and mental -- arising from multiple failed execution attempts is abhorrent, and cruel. And there are key fair trial questions still unresolved."

On Wednesday, the US Supreme Court cleared the way for Pike to become the first woman to be executed in Tennessee in 200 years -- but the attempt failed.

Turk "calls on the state authorities not to pursue any further attempt to execute Pike", the UN rights office said.

"We are also troubled by the increase in the number of executions in the United States," it added.

"The death penalty has no place in any society."

The failed attempt to execute Pike prompted Tennessee authorities to halt capital punishment for the rest of the year.

Pike was 18 when she and her boyfriend beat and killed Colleen Slemmer, 19, at a job training camp for young people.

The killing gained national attention after Slemmer's body was found with a pentagram, often seen as a satanic symbol, carved in her chest.

Pike's lawyers argued she should be granted clemency due to her young age and mental health issues at the time of the killing.

In the United States, 18 women have been executed since 1976, according to the Death Penalty Information Center.