On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump completes his first year in the White House - a year marked by the adoption of a strict protectionist approach and accelerated financial policies that caused shocks in global markets and reshaped international trade balances. As the administration moves into its second year, structural liberation from institutional constraints is emerging, with a trend towards enhancing the expansion of presidential powers through unilateral decisions, which raises the intensity of geopolitical risks and deepens the division in the political and economic landscape of the United States.
Radical Change
Upon his triumphant return to power on January 20, 2025, Trump pledged to reshape the economy, the federal bureaucracy, and immigration policies. Indeed, he implemented a large part of this agenda, becoming one of the most powerful presidents in modern American history. His radical economic measures included downsizing the federal administration, abolishing government agencies, reducing foreign aid, and imposing comprehensive tariffs that sparked global trade tensions. He also passed a massive tax package and sought to restrict some vaccines, while continuing to pressure academic, legal, and media institutions, focusing on his domestic economic priorities.
Centralization of Power and Challenging Monetary Independence
In recent weeks, Trump revived his controversial plan to acquire Greenland and threatened military force against Iran, ignoring concerns about the criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. In an interview with Reuters last week, Trump showed no concern about the potential economic repercussions of pressuring Powell, stating, "I don't care." In remarks to the New York Times, he said the only constraint he has as commander-in-chief is "his personal ethics," reflecting his philosophy of governance that prioritizes personal judgment over institutional constraints.
Inflation and Popularity Test
Despite his insistence that the current economy is the "strongest" in history, Trump faces increasing popular pressure due to inflationary pressures and persistent price increases, which is the biggest challenge before the midterm elections in November. His efforts to reduce the cost of living are complicated by conflicting messages about inflation, which he sometimes described as a "Democratic hoax." Analysts believe that excessive focus on foreign affairs may weaken the effectiveness of his domestic economic policies even as Trump plans to conduct field tours to promote his plan to address high prices.
Shift in Economic Decision-Making
From an executive standpoint, Trump has invested executive orders and emergency declarations to shift the weight of economic decision-making from Congress to the White House. These policies are based on the support of the conservative majority in the Supreme Court, Republican control of the House of Representatives, and the loyalty of his ministerial team, which gives him exceptional ability to implement without much obstruction. Economic historians describe this influence as unprecedented since the era of Franklin Roosevelt (1933-1945), who enjoyed broad popular and legislative support to confront the Great Depression, while Trump exercises his current authority amid sharp division in public opinion.
Political Indicators and November Risks
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump's approval rating was 41 percent, compared to 58 percent disapproval, which is a relatively low number for American presidents. Democratic strategist Alex Floyd warned that "ignoring the controls of the rule of law" could cost Republicans in the ballot box. For his part, Trump acknowledged to Reuters the risk of losing control of Congress in the November election, warning his party that a Democratic majority could mean facing impeachment for the third time.
First Year Assessment
During his first year, Trump reduced the size of the federal civilian workforce, shut agencies, reduced humanitarian aid, issued orders for widespread immigration raids, and even sent the National Guard to cities run by Democratic authorities. Economically, he ignited trade wars by imposing tariffs on goods from most countries, passed a law to cut taxes and spending, continued to prosecute his political opponents, and canceled or restricted access to some vaccines, and attacked universities, law firms, and media.
Despite promising to end Russia's war in Ukraine from day one of taking office, Trump has made little progress towards a peace agreement, while claiming to have ended eight wars, a claim widely disputed, given the continuing conflicts in several parts of the world.
Expectations for the Next Stage
Presidential historian Timothy Naftali said that Trump exercised his executive powers during his second term with fewer restrictions than any president since Roosevelt. In the early years of Roosevelt's presidency, the Democratic president enjoyed a large majority in Congress, which allowed him to pass most of his domestic agenda to expand the scope of government without significant resistance. He also enjoyed broad popular support for his efforts to deal with the Great Depression, while the Republican opposition was fragmented and weak.
Analysts from the Republican Party point out that Trump's difficulty in convincing voters that he is aware of their living challenges, especially with the high cost of living, may push some Republican representatives to distance themselves from him to ensure they maintain their seats in the midterm elections.
An analysis of the trajectory of Trump's current policies shows that he has increased the power of the executive presidency at a rare rate, transforming most of the economic and political decision-making process to the Oval Office, while limiting the influence of Congress and institutional controls. However, erratic economic policies and his perceived "distracted" speeches have worried some Republican strategists, who fear that his focus on foreign issues will cost him voters.
