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Oil Jumps on Trump's Iran Threat

A pump jack operates near a gas turbine power plant in the Permian Basin oil field outside of Odessa, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman
A pump jack operates near a gas turbine power plant in the Permian Basin oil field outside of Odessa, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman
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Oil Jumps on Trump's Iran Threat

A pump jack operates near a gas turbine power plant in the Permian Basin oil field outside of Odessa, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman
A pump jack operates near a gas turbine power plant in the Permian Basin oil field outside of Odessa, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman

Gold soared to a fresh record near $5,600 on Thursday and oil prices climbed after US President Donald Trump ramped up geopolitical tensions with threats of a military strike on Iran.

"With the Middle East tinder box looking set to ignite again, oil prices have moved sharply higher, lifting shares in listed energy giants," said Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, AFP reported.

Stock markets mostly rose in Asia and Europe as investors also pored over company earnings and the US Federal Reserve's latest policy update.

Frankfurt slid almost one percent in midday deals, however, dragged down by German software giant SAP.

Its share price tumbled nearly 14 percent after the company warned it would see a slowdown in new cloud computing contracts this year after missing targets last year.

Gold hit a new record at $5,595.47 an ounce as investors rush to assets deemed safe, including silver, which reached its own record of $120.44 an ounce.

The precious metals are being helped by a softer dollar, sparked by speculation that Trump is happy to see the world's reserve currency weaken despite the potential risk of pushing up US inflation.

An uneventful policy announcement by the Fed on Wednesday did little to inspire buying, though observers said traders were optimistic that US interest rates will come down as Trump prepares to name his pick as the next governor of the central bank.

Trump has meanwhile warned that Tehran needed to negotiate a deal over its nuclear programme, which the West believes is aimed at making an atomic bomb.

"Hopefully Iran will quickly 'Come to the Table' and negotiate a fair and equitable deal -- NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS -- one that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly of the essence!" Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

"The next attack will be far worse! Don't make that happen again," he added, referring to US strikes against Iranian targets in June.

International benchmark Brent crude oil briefly topped $70 a barrel Thursday for the first time since September with a gain of more than two percent.

On stock markets, Meta jumped in after-hours trade after the US parent of Facebook and Instagram published quarterly earnings that topped expectations, as revenue grew along with investments in artificial intelligence.

South Korean tech giant Samsung Electronics posted record quarterly profits Thursday, riding massive market demand for the memory chips that power AI.

Ahead of the Wall Street open, US chemicals group Dow said it would slash 4,500 jobs and use artificial intelligence and automation to improve productivity and boost profitability by at least $2 billion.

- Key figures at around 1145 GMT -

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 2.2 percent at $6.03 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 2.6 percent at $64.88 per barrel

London - FTSE 100: UP 0.6 percent at 10,217.82 points

Paris - CAC 40: UP 0.5 percent at 8,110.53

Frankfurt - DAX: DOWN 0.9 percent at 24,597.26

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: FLAT at 53,375.60 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.5 percent at 27,968.09 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 4,157.98 (close)

New York - Dow: FLAT at 49,015.60 (close)

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1952 from $1.1944 on Wednesday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3798 from $1.3797

Dollar/yen: UP at 153.49 yen from 153.38 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 86.62 pence from 86.56 pence

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Business

IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.

Business

Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.

Business

Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.