One hundred prominent Israeli thinkers, researchers and former officials have warned that Israel faces a critical choice: become a major power or risk collapse, arguing that while the country has the potential to achieve greater regional influence, its “foundations are rusting.”
The warning emerged from an in-depth study by MIND Israel, a nonpartisan organization specializing in foreign and security strategy. Maariv reported Sunday that the research identified another type of danger alongside external security threats: an existential threat from within.
“If we do not address these foundations, not only will we fail to become a major power, but the entire structure will collapse,” warned Dr. Avner Golov, MIND Israel’s vice president.
The study, involving 100 experts, identified six critical issues requiring urgent decisions: Israel’s regional standing, the quality of its human capital, the relationship between the economy and security, governance and national resilience, demographic changes, and relations with the United States.
MIND Israel President Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin noted that the organization intends to present the issues to the public ahead of elections in late October and encourage voters to question party leaders about them.
Presenting the research, Golov explained that the researchers’ review of history found that civilizations tend not to be destroyed from outside while they remain strong internally.
“Internal processes dismantle them,” he added, citing declining social cohesion, erosion of trust in state institutions, the prioritization of short-term political gains over long-term national interests and an inability to adapt.
Contrasting views
Golov outlined two opposing assessments encountered by the researchers. One held that Israel had survived a global pandemic, social upheaval, the Oct. 7 attack and its aftermath while maintaining a resilient economy, technological leadership and strong security capabilities — evidence, in that view, that the country was moving toward becoming a major power.
The other argued that a process of collapse had already begun, driven by an identity crisis, declining governance and a political emergency.
“We believe both sides are right,” Golov concluded, arguing that Israel simultaneously faces historic opportunities and serious internal vulnerabilities.
Asked what the public should do with the questions raised by the study, Golov urged voters to look beyond questions of governing coalitions and demand concrete plans from political leaders. Key measures, he maintained, should be taken during a new government’s first 100 days.
Turning to security policy, Golov called for an updated version of Israel’s traditional “Iron Wall” doctrine following Oct. 7.
He argued that Israel could no longer rely solely on containing enemies behind defensive barriers but must seek to shape developments beyond them.
“The wall still needs to be strong, but we cannot rely only on that,” he stressed.
Golov also urged Israel not to depend exclusively on the United States and to strengthen regional relationships.
“Alongside the walls, we need bridges,” he concluded.
